KK gets reraised PF

[Ghazban]

Villain is bad. Earlier, he raised A8s from MP, got 4 callers, then bet a J54r flop (with nothing, obviously), then made a runner runner flush which I paid off with my set of 5s. He hasn't reraised preflop in the 100ish hands I have with him so this is probably a real hand. When he checks the A-high flop, I figure he probably has AA and is slowplaying or QQ and is afraid. With the wimpy turn bet, I call planning on folding if he bets the river (as I think he could bet QQ on the turn but not on both the turn and river). When I hit my K, I don't know if its good but I definitely want a showdown so I make a blocking bet (so, by definition, I'm folding to a raise).

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Button ($458.85)
SB ($50.10)
BB ($202.50)
UTG ($184.20)
UTG+1 ($88.50)
MP1 ($349.02)
MP2 ($513.55)
Hero ($250)
CO ($225.30)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, K/images/graemlins/club.gif. SB posts a blind of $1.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls $2, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP2 calls $2, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $10</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to $25</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, UTG+1 folds, MP2 folds, Hero calls $15.

Flop: ($57) 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, Button checks.

Turn: ($57) J/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets $25</font>, Hero calls $25.

River: ($107) K/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $60</font>

[EMcWilliams]

I think you are up against an Ace here...just one, making your kings the winner. I really think he had TP GK on the flop, and the running cards made his hand better. Looks ok to me

[wtfsvi]

Do you think he will call with QQ here? Just about every hand you could have beats him.

If he won't, you might as well check call so you don't lose the pot the times he has AK or JJ. If he will call with QQ, your line is probably fine, since bad players are overly scared of flushes, so he might actually just call with AK or JJ some of the time.

[Ghazban]

[ QUOTE ]
Do you think he will call with QQ here? Just about every hand you could have beats him.

If he won't, you might as well check call so you don't lose the pot the times he has AK or JJ. If he will call with QQ, your line is probably fine, since bad players are overly scared of flushes, so he might actually just call with AK or JJ some of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't like check/calling because I don't want to call a large bet.

[wtfsvi]

</font><blockquote><font class="small">Svar på:</font><hr />
I don't like check/calling because I don't want to call a large bet.

[/ QUOTE ]
Yeah, that's why we make blocking bets. But I'm for check calling here (unless you have any reason to think he will bet big, like overbet the pot). I don't think you can be very confident AK and JJ are not in his reraising range. (I reallize AK is fairly unlikely since he didn't bet the flop, but it's not impossible. And JJ fits right in there with QQ.)

In 100 hands he should be dealt AA-JJ/AK (4x(4/52)x(3/51))+ 4/52x4/51 = about 2,4 times. Will he be in a position to reraise preflop more than 1/2.4 = about 40% of these? I think we can safely assume that he won't. In conclusion, it is less than 50% likely that you have seen him in a situation where it was possible for him to reraise an open raise with AA-JJ/AK. On top of that, he's probably more likely to reraise with the button than say, out of the blinds.

[Ghazban]

I understand what you're saying but, in this case, I'm more interested in setting the price for showdown than in extracting value with the bet. I think I could be in trouble here but its worth $60 to me to find out if I'm good. If I check, I expect he'll bet at least $80 and $100 is certainly not out of the question (though I could have him all wrong and maybe he'd bet $40 with aces to make sure I don't fold or something).

[DoomSlice]

The problem is that I think aces are going to raise you here quite often.

[Ghazban]

[ QUOTE ]
The problem is that I think aces are going to raise you here quite often.

[/ QUOTE ]

That is not a problem; I'm folding to a raise. I don't think anything worse will raise me.

[wtfsvi]

I'm not too worried about getting value when you're ahead either. But I am worried about getting blown off the pot when villain has AK/JJ.

[DoomSlice]

I dunno... if Villain is as bad as you say, don't you think he'll be raising AK here?

[Mercman572]

am i the only one that leads the flop and folds to the reraise?

[stu-unger]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not too worried about getting value when you're ahead either. But I am worried about getting blown off the pot when villain has AK/JJ.

[/ QUOTE ]

i think that his range does include AA but i think that AK/JJ/QQ is probably just as likely. AK &amp; JJ r raising this river and QQ is folding.

If you would fold to a raise, why not check/call the river? AK, or worse could raise the river thinking that they were good.

[Ghazban]

[ QUOTE ]
If you would fold to a raise, why not check/call the river? AK, or worse could raise the river thinking that they were good.

[/ QUOTE ]

Because he could bet an amount I don't want to call. This ain't limit.

[djoyce003]

he made a wimpy turnbet...I think he'd make a wimpy riverbet too. I really don't like it because a worse hand could raise you and you'd fold here. I'd just check call whatever he bet unless it is a push, and then i'd have to make a decision. If you were going to block, I would have bet 30, so that he'd minraise it to 60 and i'm ok with 60....you know this clown would minraise.