Would you make this push?

[DMACM]

All in or fold?

NL Texas Hold'em $10 Buy-in + $1 Entry Fee

BB 1035
HERO-UTG 1020
Button 2130
SB 3815

Blinds(100/200)

Dealt to HERO-UTG [ 9c 7c ]
HERO-UTG

[MegaBet]

Ummm....fold?

(Wow, that was a tricky one) /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[sourbeaver]

I wonder what ICM analysis would say about this one.
I don't have access to eastbay's prog as I'm away from home, but someone could punch it in.

[inyaface]

I'm just stating to use the program but its pretty Close...It depends on what you set the calling range to
If the BTN, SB and BB all have a calling range of 77+ and A9+ its +1.0 EV
Once you start loosening up the table it gets worse so it depends on how loose the players in the game are.


I dont think enough tables (espeically 10's) are tight enough to push this usually.

[tigerite]

SB is the main problem in this hand. His calling range, I suspect, is quite high. Probably in the 20% bracket. Button will fold all but best hands I would think - say 5% - and BB a little more, say 10% at most.

[lastchance]

Your opponents are bound to call 55, 66 and A8 here when you only have 5x BB.

[tigerite]

[ QUOTE ]
SB is the main problem in this hand. His calling range, I suspect, is quite high. Probably in the 20% bracket. Button will fold all but best hands I would think - say 5% - and BB a little more, say 10% at most.

[/ QUOTE ]

Plugging these in, in fact makes this a +0.5% EV push. Surprising. Button won't call many because he has to be wary of SB overcalling, I'd have thought. BB won't call much more than 10% because it's for his stack. It all depends if SB's calling range is more than 20% really (that's already quite loose- 33+,A4o+,A2s+,KJo+,KTs+)

[inyaface]

Then it becomes negative EV
no push

[tigerite]

You can't give them all the same range, that's nonsensical. BB's call will be for his whole stack. Button if he calls has to be wary of overcall from SB behind him.

[inyaface]

BUT its a low buy in sit and go and you never know what people are really going to call with and that people don't always understand the gap concept or proper button calling ranges. It's probably a bit more read dependant on what the OP thinks the calling ranges would be around. At a decent table though your definatly right...my bad

EDIT: Do you really think the Button would be thinking about the SB overcalling...I really didnt play alot at the 10's so I dont know what the standard player would think but it seems like this is a bit to advanced

It's a fold if you factor in skill IMHO.

[lastchance]

There's not a lot of skill when you have 5x BB. You're paying a third of your stack in the next 2 hands, so you need to make a move.

This is player dependent, obviously.

I got to figure Button's calling your Kx and Ax, any pair pushes with AT+, 66+ at least, overpushing. BB has good pot odds, and also needs to make a move, Any ace, any pair, K8+ QJ range seems about right. SB's going to be moving with a lot of hands. A3+, A2s+, KJ+, KTs+ should be a decent range.

[sourbeaver]

[ QUOTE ]
It's a fold if you factor in skill IMHO.

[/ QUOTE ]

This in interesting.
But, how important is skill vs ICM on the bubble with a stack of 5-6 BB. I was inclined to give skill some weight in this decision, but when you factor in the small stack/high blinds situation, no other skill then knowing when to make a +EV push is possibly exploitable IMHO.

Feel free to correct me /images/graemlins/club.gif

[AliasMrJones]

Fold.