Too late to bluff?

[wheelz]

Have only played a handful of orbits with villain, but he seems a bit loose passive, straightforward, definitely reasonable.

Think a river bet is profitable or too unbelievable at this point? What do you think he has?

Prima Poker 15/30 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with Q/images/graemlins/club.gif, J/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, BB calls.

Flop: (4 SB) 9/images/graemlins/club.gif, 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB calls.

Turn: (3 BB) 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, Hero checks.

River: (3 BB) 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, Hero ?

[paco]

If he's reasonable as you say, he's gotta have a small pp. Doesnt' have a flush, no str draws on board, no value betting an A. I think you should give it up.

[dave44]

I definitely check behind- your hand does have shome showdown value against something like JT that peeled on the flop for whatever reason.

[wackjob]

Is it standard at that limit to open with JQo? This hand is a loser most of the time from early position from what I have seen &amp; read. Obviously here you got a lot of folds so I thought this might be due to your reads of the table or a standard play at this limit?

[wheelz]

QJo is a standard open for me. There are definitely situations where I don't open with it, but it's standard for me UTG yes.

[wheelz]

Having the best hand definitely crossed my mind here, but this guy wasn't that much of a peeler and had been showing me respect, so I didn't really expect him to peel with something ridiculous on this board after my UTG raise. Like paco, I was thinking that he had to have a small PP. So then it just comes down to if I think he'll fold a PP here getting 4:1 33% of the time... I have the small pot size working for me, because he isn't as likely to look me up in such a small pot, but it's also working against me because the bluff has to work so often for it to be profitable.

My turn check doesn't help sell the cause, but me checking the turn with a bigger PP or an ace that was afraid of trip 9's or the flush that then decided to bet the river seems believable. I wasn't sure if this was a ridiculously easy check, or a possible good spot for a bluff, or a decision that no one here has enough information to answer confidently... but in any case I probably shouldn't have posted it /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[dave44]

[ QUOTE ]
but in any case I probably shouldn't have posted it /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[/ QUOTE ]
No problem posting it- I think it is an interesting hand. I don't think you're folding a PP or better hand 33% of the time here so I would much rather a check behind.

[yanicehand]

Definitely standard, imo. Exceptions sometimes of course!

[wackjob]

If your sample size is &gt;50K, would you mind posting your stats on QJo, especially if you don't mind posting them in relation to position. I've found QJo for me to be a big loser in early position especially.

[stripsqueez]

i think QJo UTG 6 handed is a crap hand - i hate being 3 bet and i have banana showdown potential - that said i routinely raise it UTG 5 handed

i'm struggling to think of better hands that fold to a river bet after the dodgy turn action (or worse hands that call)

stripsqueez - chickenhawk

[wheelz]

I don't have that many hands, the majority of my online poker playing has come from a site that doesn't have hand histories. Someone else might be able to help you though... trust me I'm quick to find a reason to fold QJo UTG, but I open with it more often than I fold it.

[wheelz]

[ QUOTE ]
i'm struggling to think of better hands that fold to a river bet after the dodgy turn action

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah I was done with the hand after he called me on the flop, like I said he hadn't been peeling against me much... it wasn't until he checked the river that I realized "he has to have a PP, and he's capable of folding." But I also came to the conclusion that after the turn check it was too late to do anything about it.