Can this gimmick strategy work for NL?

[wadea]

So here's the whole strategy. You buy into a $1-$2NL game for $20. Every "playable" hand you see, you simply push all-in. After each loss, you buy back to $20. Each time you go over $30, you switch tables and start over. Here's the math:

1) Everybody folds: You win $3/event.
2) Say that on average you're a 2:1 underdog when you're called, even though that is probably pessimistic since you'll be choosing good hot & cold hands. You'll win 33% of the time for $20 x 0.33 = $6.67. So here you lose $13/event.

So the question becomes, will you be called less than ~18% of the times you push all-in for 10xBB? Is 2:1 a good estimate of your odds when you're called?

It seems the critical part of the success of this system is the range of hands you're willing to go all-in with. Too many hands and you will be in worse trouble when you are called, which be get to be more and more often as you show down mediocre hands. If you play too few hands, you will pay too many blinds of your own between events.

Can this be made to work?

-w.a.

[Quicksilvre]

In the short run, it could work, if you catch good cards. However, once your opponents realized how you were playing, they would just sit back and wait for a good hand. I'd imagine that you'd be crushed in the long run.

[Ed Miller]

It works fine once you realize that you make the bulk of your money not by stealing the blinds, but by being called by worse hands.

I detail a system almost identical to this in execution in my book Getting Started in Hold 'em.

[wadea]

Is any ace and any pair a good starting point for a range of hands? How about suited broadway?

Pushing after it's already been raised adds another interesting twist. You stand to win more when you steal it, but you are probably a substantial dog when you are called.

-w.a.

[deepdowntruth]

Find me a NLHE game you can buy into for 10BB. :-)

Ed's strategy differs in that the effect is not to push others off their hands and pick up some blinds, but to get all your money in as the likely favorite. Therefore, you buy-in short, make a normal 4BB-ish raise on your raising hands (a raise that someone might conceivable call with a weak hand), and assuming everything looks good for you, push on the flop. This scenario makes it likely that loose, gambooling types will play with you and put money in as a significant dog much of the time.

Your way of pushing pre-flop ensures that most of the time your action will come from hands that beat yours. Sure, by pushing, you may pick up the blinds with your KK, but wouldn't you rather get all your money matched dollar for dollar by Q9o or some such garbage, even if you risk the occasional suckout? Me too.

To get a little bit under your question though, you are never going to eliminate the need for experience and judgement in becoming a winning NL player. You will make far more money long-term by honing your post-flop skills, than by trying to dream up infallible pre-flop strategies that eliminate the need for considered judgement and the tough mental work needed to develop it.

(Thanks Ed, btw, for the GSIHSSNL method, it's been a nice low-risk bankroll builder for me live and online.)

[pzhon]

[ QUOTE ]
Is any ace and any pair a good starting point for a range of hands? How about suited broadway?

[/ QUOTE ]
Here are my suggestions from my Basic Strategy (http://www.websitetoolbox.com/tool/post/blackjackguy/vpost?id=187635) for short-stacked NL Hold'em, designed for playing with a stack of 10 BB. (Party changed to a 20 BB minimum when they cut the blinds in half. PokerRoom still has a 10 BB minimum.)

<ul type="square">
With rare exceptions, either fold preflop or move in. Never just call the big blind, though you can check if you are in the big blind and no one raises.

Premium hands: AA, KK, QQ, JJ, AK.
Great hands: TT, 99, AQ, AJ, KQ.
Good hands: 88, 77, 66, AT, KJ.
Ok hands: 55, 44, 33, 22, Ax, Kxs, KT, QJ.
Bad: Everything else. This includes QT and JT.


/images/graemlins/spade.gif If you have a premium hand, then regardless of the action in front of you, raise all-in preflop.

/images/graemlins/spade.gif If you have a great hand, move in if no one makes a real raise in front of you. A minimum raise can be ignored. If someone raises in front of you, fold, except if you are in the blinds and the person who raised was in late position or the small blind, in which case you should raise all-in.

/images/graemlins/spade.gif If you have a good hand, move in if no one has raised in front of you and you are in late position (the button or one seat to the right of the button) or the blinds.

/images/graemlins/spade.gif If you have an ok hand, move in from late position if no one has limped in front of you, or from the blinds if there are no limpers.

/images/graemlins/spade.gif If your hand is not even an ok hand, or you have an ok hand but there is at least one limper, fold the small blind.

This leaves the problem of what to do if you are in the big blind and do have at best an ok hand. Check. Postflop, if you ever have top pair or better and there isn't a 4-flush or 4-straight on the board, move in. If you make a straight or flush, move in as soon as you make it unless someone with one card could beat your straight (with a higher straight, flush, or full house) or you contribute one card 8 or lower to the flush. Otherwise check and fold.
[/list]
By the way, the point of this strategy was to allow blackjack players to clear poker bonuses without learning how to play poker. This is not how I would play with a short stack, but I think this simple strategy wins.

[ QUOTE ]
Pushing after it's already been raised adds another interesting twist. You stand to win more when you steal it, but you are probably a substantial dog when you are called.

[/ QUOTE ]
No, you won't be an underdog on average when your reraises are called. If you have a 10 BB stack, any normal raise will pot-commit someone against you, even if they raised with A5s or 86s. That means your reraises should be called almost all of the time, though some people will generously fold while getting 3:1 pot odds. To reraise profitably with a short stack, you only need to be ahead of the average raising hand. That's much different from the normal standards for reraising. AK and JJ are well ahead of the range of hands people will raise, but in some games you may not want to reraise with AK or JJ because the weaker hands will fold and you don't want to reopen the action for stronger hands.

It is very profitable to steal the limps. This is one of the big differences of play with a short stack (e.g., in a tournament) and with a deep stack. With deep stacks, it is common to limp with a lot of speculative hands. With short stacks, this is a big mistake. By having 10 BB, you can capitalize on this difference by attacking the limpers. At a loose table, you can pick up more limps than blinds.

Another great thing that happens is that one person will call, then fold to another player's reraise. You will probably be behind the reraiser, but if you win, you triple up.

[Pokerlogist]

reading this thread has might help some:

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&amp;Number=3038135&amp;page=4&amp;view=c ollapsed&amp;sb=5&amp;o=14&amp;fpart=1