NL hand for comment

[davidross]

NL PS Freeroll WSOP Qualifier. 3rd level blinds are 25/50 and I have a slightly below average stack of 1830.

I’m in the BB, there are three limpers L1(1245), L2(3675) L3(3580), and I have As Tc. I take the free play. Q1. Anyone make a big raise here to try and steal?

*** FLOP *** [5s 3s Th]

I bet 200 and L1 calls cold, the other 2 fold.

*** TURN *** [5s 3s Th] [7c]

He has 995 left. I bet 1,000.

What do you think of my play?

[Mike Gallo]

Anyone make a big raise here to try and steal?


No


*** TURN *** [5s 3s Th] [7c] He has 995 left. I bet 1,000. He has 995 left. I bet 1,000. What do you think of my play?

I like it /forums/images/icons/grin.gif

[ohkanada]

All seems reasonable to me.

Did you lose to a set? Sometimes someone will outflop you in such a way that it is hard to not lose a bunch of chips.

Ken Poklitar

[davidross]

My opponent called all-in and I held my breath. He turned over 9s 8s for an open ended/flush draw, and I had to hold my breath again. Am I correct that his call is wrong? He’s getting only 1.6 to 1 on a 3-1 shot.

River was the harmless 4d and I had a nice stack to work with, that I could do nothing with as it turned out. Oh well one step at a time.

[Greg (FossilMan)]

He's more like a 2:1 dog, as he has 14 outs by my count. However, unless he is pretty sure he can win with an 8 or 9 for one-pair (giving him 20 outs, and making him only a 6:5 dog), it's a wrong call. Since he should rarely figure an 8 or 9 is any good, it is a clear mistake to call, IMO.

Now, if he's a terrible player and knows it, then calling as only a slight dog compared to the pot odds is fine, since it is probably a better chance than he'll get as he continues with his mediocre play. Variance is the friend of the weak player.

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

[davidross]

I figured I'd hear back from you on that. As soon as I posted it I realized the mistake.

I went with th e15 outs because that's what he would have assumed he had, he didn't know I had one of his spades.

THanks Greg.