KK faces 2 cold on the river scare card

[Bodhi]

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

On the river, both villains are loose and passive. Excuse my strange check on the turn, the phone was ringing and the gf was asking me questions about real life stuff. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

Preflop: Hero is BB with K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, CO calls, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, CO calls, <font color="#CC3333">Button caps</font>, Hero calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, CO calls.

Flop: (20.50 SB) 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 4/images/graemlins/club.gif, 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 raises</font>, MP1 folds, CO folds, <font color="#CC3333">Button 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero caps</font>, UTG+1 calls, Button calls.

Turn: (16.25 BB) Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, UTG+1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets</font>, Hero calls, UTG+1 calls.

River: (19.25 BB) A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, Hero ??

[Bradyams]

I think it's painfully obvious you're beat. I know it's a large pot, but I'm folding this. Especially since there is a chance it gets raised again behind me.

[Paxosmotic]

Fold, you only have a pair.

[J. Sawyer]

you have to fold, no question about it

[Buckmulligan]

I don't actually think a check call is that bad for the turn. I think we can safely fold the river with no aggressive reads on the villains.

[Bodhi]

Allright, thanx for helping me keep a grip. Hero folded and the button won the pot with JJ. (utg+1 had 66)

[Paxosmotic]

[ QUOTE ]
Allright, thanx for helping me keep a grip. Hero folded and the button won the pot with JJ. (utg+1 had 66)

[/ QUOTE ]
UTG+1 goes on the buddylist immediately, and I friggin told you not to fold a pair on the river for two bets, eesh!

[Bradyams]

OUCH! That'll make you tilt worse than if you called and lost to A2o.

[llamaoo7]

The only way I could have ever called the river if I knew UTG was an idiot maniac and if button was a decent player who you had noticed been trying to isolate him. Even with a read like this, it's still marginal at best to call.

[@bsolute_luck]

i don't get why you check the turn?

[eviljeff]

*grunch*

this is an easy fold. button has a 4 or 77.

[Buckmulligan]

[ QUOTE ]
i don't get why you check the turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

I know this was supposed to be an accident, but I think I check this as well. I think we are in a lot of trouble and our hand doesn't need that much protection. I'm pretty sure I bet TT here, but I think i check this.

[@bsolute_luck]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i don't get why you check the turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

I know this was supposed to be an accident, but I think I check this as well. I think we are in a lot of trouble and our hand doesn't need that much protection. I'm pretty sure I bet TT here, but I think i check this.

[/ QUOTE ]

protection? screw protection, i'm betting this for value. the pot is big and i think we are ahead of anyone still in the hand so far. really, i'm probably only slowing down to a cap here for fear of AA and QQ, but that's it.

call me crazy, but the showing of weakness on the turn is what opened the doors for the misplay on the river.

[GTSamIAm]

Folds. You're behind to either aces full or trip 4's or both or worse. If you have good reads you might find a fold on the turn.

[GTSamIAm]

Who's capping with a 4 or 77? That's pretty rare.

My initial reaction was to call because of the size of the pot. However, after thinking about it for a little bit, I think this is a close call between a call and a fold.

I think you're very likely beaten, particularly in light of these players being passive yet betting as they have. I suspect a FH or a set, or a higher 2-pair.

In terms of the call/fold decision (let's not consider raising for the moment), 22.25 BB for the moment + another 5 BB which I believe will be made, combined, by the villains, for a total of 27.25 BB. It will cost you 4 BB to showdown this pot. So, your odds to make this call are really 27.25-to-4, or 6.8-to-1, or 14.7%. So, I think the question is whether you win more than 14.7% of the time here. Since I don't think you win more than 14.7% of the time here (I think the number is more like 5-10% of the time), then it may well be right to fold.

That said, I think it would be awfully tough to actually bring myself to fold here with that hand in that pot.

I also wonder whether it would be better to raise if I made the decision that calling was better than folding, and if I thought it was going to end up being 4 bets anyhow b/c of my opponents' raising/capping.

[ QUOTE ]
i think we are ahead of anyone still in the hand so far.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not sure I see why you think this in light of the passive reads but aggressive behavior by the villains through the flop. Can you please explain your reasoning?

[Bodhi]

[ QUOTE ]
That said, I think it would be awfully tough to actually bring myself to fold here with that hand in that pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

No kidding. If I knew it wouldn't get reraised behind me, it might change the decision to a call. Even then, I've really been trying to evaluate these river decisions strictly in terms of whether or not it's a profitable call, and here it just didn't seem like mhig often enough. UTG+1 waking up is bad, and the button's raising is worse still. Looking at the results, the button played it really well.

[Shillx]

Fold. Eventhough you underplayed your hand, that turn card was a killer for you. This should be pretty easy to get away from.

Brad

[@bsolute_luck]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i think we are ahead of anyone still in the hand so far.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not sure I see why you think this in light of the passive reads but aggressive behavior by the villains through the flop. Can you please explain your reasoning?

[/ QUOTE ]

i don't see anything out of the norm here. capping preflop: AA-TT, AK. we thought our hand was best on the flop enough to cap, i don't see how that has changed enough on the turn.

UTG has bet once on the flop which could be any pocket pair, not necessarily trips. if he had capped the flop or done something on the turn: yeah, i'd be worried, but one bet isn't enough for me to through this hand away.

i think the turn and river action can only be looked at that we didn't keep up aggression, so naturally Button is going to bet thinking his hand is best.

edit: just to be clear i am talking about the turn check not the river.

[Bodhi]

I hope you noticed the explanation for the turn check in the original post, though I agree that betting was best.

[@bsolute_luck]

[ QUOTE ]
I hope you noticed the explanation for the turn check in the original post, though I agree that betting was best.

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah i saw that /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[DownUnder]

Fold.

Unless you have a particular read on the button, his preflop cap is likely to be AA-JJ, AK. With the turn and river you're only ahead of JJ and chopping with the remaining KK. And there's UTG+1 betting into two guys who have capped preflop and the flop between them when the Ace comes...

Don't think you're good often enough here.

DU

[TomBrooks]

Toss it like a hot potato, or potatoe if you prefer.

[TomBrooks]

[ QUOTE ]
Allright, thanx for helping me keep a grip. Hero folded and the button won the pot with JJ. (utg+1 had 66)

[/ QUOTE ] Well, now you know they're Donktastic and you can adjust your play against them accordingly.