AQo, flop decision.

[whlinn]

UTG+2 is a calling station. MP1 is TAP. MP2 is a fish.

PokerStars 1/2 Hold'em (10 handed)
converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is CO with Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls.

Flop: (9.50 SB) 3/images/graemlins/club.gif, 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 8/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
UTG+2 checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 bets</font>, MP2 folds, Hero....

[Dave G.]

I'd raise the flop. The pot is big so you certainly aren't folding. You have position so maybe this gets you a free card on the turn. MP1 most likely has a small pocket pair. He's unlikely to have an 8 (though if he 3-bets you can fold the turn).

FWIW, if it is checked to you on the turn, I'd take the free card and try to improve on the river. A free showdown with ace high isn't what you want here since he probably has that beaten, and if you don't improve you can safely fold to his river bet.

I fold. I think I'm way behind MP1, the TAP, who I think has me badly beaten with trips.

[Redd]

I'd call it but I wouldn't raise. This guy could be betting a worse hand (FD, middling PP, maybe a 3?), so I think we have odds to call. But we sure can't raise A-high for value, unless the guy one guy left to act has exactly A3/K3 we don't protect much, and getting 3-bet would bite the big one.

[adsman]

[ QUOTE ]
I fold. I think I'm way behind MP1, the TAP, who I think has me badly beaten with a set.

[/ QUOTE ]

MUBS

[whlinn]

What is MUBS?

[Redd]

[ QUOTE ]
What is MUBS?

[/ QUOTE ]

Monsters under the bed syndrome = assuming the opponent has the worst possible hand. Usually leads to weak-tight play.

[Dave G.]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd call it but I wouldn't raise. This guy could be betting a worse hand (FD, middling PP, maybe a 3?), so I think we have odds to call. But we sure can't raise A-high for value, unless the guy one guy left to act has exactly A3/K3 we don't protect much, and getting 3-bet would bite the big one.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's not for value so much as for a free card. If we can see the turn and river for 1 BB instead of 1.5 BB, that's a good thing.

Also, if we get 3-bet, we can safely fold the turn UI. I don't like calling much here because it gives us no indication of where we actually stand, and it minimises our chances of winning the hand. We can't call a turn bet UI, but we might not have to if we raise. The free river might give us the winning hand, and this pot is big enough to be worth fighting for.

And if we really think he'll bet a worse hand on the river after we check the turn, we can always call it. Although that would be very read dependent.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I fold. I think I'm way behind MP1, the TAP, who I think has me badly beaten with a set.

[/ QUOTE ]

MUBS

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, they're big, green, and scary. Don't you see them?

Seriously, this one was tough for me. Don't we give this TAP credit for something here other than overcards? At first I didn't, but then changed my mind. Truly, overcard situations like this one give me fits.

What is your line on this hand, Adsman?

[adsman]

I raise the flop to try and get it HU. I fold to a 3-bet. I don't really like checking the turn as it encourages players to take a shot on the river.

[Dave G.]

[ QUOTE ]
I raise the flop to try and get it HU. I fold to a 3-bet. I don't really like checking the turn as it encourages players to take a shot on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

A turn check-raise would be very ugly, and I don't think a free showdown with ace high has much value here. I'd only bet the turn if I thought he might fold.

[adsman]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I raise the flop to try and get it HU. I fold to a 3-bet. I don't really like checking the turn as it encourages players to take a shot on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

A turn check-raise would be very ugly, and I don't think a free showdown with ace high has much value here. I'd only bet the turn if I thought he might fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Where did I mention a checkraise? Of course we're betting the turn so he might fold. Free showdowns with Ace high butter my toast.

[Dave G.]

That would be that he checkraises us.

[adsman]

[ QUOTE ]
That would be that he checkraises us.

[/ QUOTE ]

That would be ugly yes. But that is why we have reads.

[Fantam]

[ QUOTE ]
Don't we give this TAP credit for something here other than overcards?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think the most likely hand for TAP to have been betting the flop with was a medium pocket pair.

He would only be likely to have trip 8's, if he had played a hand like A8(s), and I think its unlikely that he would have played a hand with a 3 in it.

[Buckmulligan]

I think a call here is standard.

[J. Sawyer]

I call. the reason we would raise here is to knock out a hand like A-3, and thats not happening most likely.

[sakki]

I'd raise. Calling is bad since by raising you can increase your winning chances by getting other players out. Folding is out of the question since the pot is quite big.

I was just re-reading the "Playing overcards" section on SSHE and there's an example which is very similar to this. One important point that is emphasized is that the board being paired reduced the possibility that the flop paired other players - thus a raise on the flop may drive them away and increase your winning chances.