AA heads up

[chopchoi]

$100 n/l 10 handed. I have $120, BB has $115.

I'm in EP with A /images/graemlins/club.gif A /images/graemlins/heart.gif. It folds to me, I raise to $5. It folds to BB, who calls.

Flop is Q /images/graemlins/heart.gif 8 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 3 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif. BB checks, I bet $10, BB raises to $20. I decide to just call, and put him all-in after he bets the turn.

Turn: 5 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif. He bets $30. Could he have pulled a check-raise semi-bluff on the flop? I'm not so sure my aces are good, but I'm not sure they're beat, either.

I figure, if I raise, he's liable to fold any hand that I beat, but will call with anything that beats me. So I decide to just call, hoping he has AQ, and will bet again on the river.

River is 2 /images/graemlins/club.gif. He goes all in. I call.

Should I have layed it down, and if so, where?

[gulebjorn]

I think you need to re-raise him on the flop, say to 50 or so. You don't want to let him see a turn with this flop. If he's got trips, he'll push to your re-raise and you can let it go. If not, he's probably laying it down on the flop, or calling a turn against very incorrect odds.

I can't see any hands that you beat pushing on the flop, so I'd say it's pretty safe to lay down to a push there.

If he just calls, all the money is probably going in anyway, but you could try to get to a cheap showdown if a scare card hits, or push if a non-diamond falls.

JMO.

[chopchoi]

Here's the thing: suppose I re-raise to 50, and he pushes. I'm getting almost 3:1 to call. Plus, even if he has a set, I'll catch an Ace by the river 10% of the time, and there's probably a 5% chance he's bluffing. So I figure I would only need to be ahead about 1 time in 5 to make a call correct. A lot of players will be very aggressive with TPTK. Can I really be that sure he has a set?

[pokerjoker]

all my chips are going in here.

[gulebjorn]

No, he could be holding a set, or a freaky two pair, or a flush draw, or it could be a stone cold bluff.

But look at it this way: suppose you are holding AQ in the BB. EP raises. You know you should fold, but you call. You hit TPTK on the flop. Raiser makes a continuation bet, you raise to snap off a bluff. Now this guy comes over the top for another 30$. How many players push in this spot with their TPTK?

Suppose you are holding a flush draw. You decide to play it agressive. Same betting. I see you calling the raise here, but pushing? He would have to read fimbul's post to make a play like that IMO.

Now if you have a read that this guy is super agressive, by all means call the push.

I'm not saying that my line is perfect, but I think it's better to try and decide this on the flop, than to just call, take a turn card and complicate things further. Remember that there aren't many cards that could help you, but a whole lot of cards that might help him.

JMO. Comments are welcome.

[gulebjorn]

[ QUOTE ]
all my chips are going in here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree that given your flop call, there isn't much more you can do here. If your basic approach to this type of situations is: I won't believe anyone representing a flush, than you have no choice but to pay off the ones that are actually holding that flush. That is why I think it's better to make those draws pay heavily on the flop.

Also note that it doesn't make a difference if he's holding a flush or trips. The flop minraise, turn lead, river push sure looks like a set to me.

Because of this, I think your only option is to re-raise the flop. If he pushes, you can get away from the hand and you will have lost only half your stack. If he folds, good, a nice pot is yours. If he just calls, proceed with extreme caution. You have position, so let it work for you.

[Chris Daddy Cool]

[ QUOTE ]
Here's the thing: suppose I re-raise to 50, and he pushes. I'm getting almost 3:1 to call. Plus, even if he has a set, I'll catch an Ace by the river 10% of the time, and there's probably a 5% chance he's bluffing. So I figure I would only need to be ahead about 1 time in 5 to make a call correct. A lot of players will be very aggressive with TPTK. Can I really be that sure he has a set?

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a very good point. By the time you decide to make this little flop 3bet and he pushes you're pretty much pricing yourself in at this point because of the different combination of factors that
a) he might hold a made hand you beat like AQ, KQ or a tricky KK.
b) he is on a flush draw
c) is on a stone cold bluff (albiet rare after he goes 4 bets on the flop)

Also if you are behind, like you said
a) if he has a set, you can also make a set a % of the time.
b) if he has two pair, you have outs.

Anyways, all of these factors, and the fact its a 100 NL game you HAVE to call if you decide to put in 3 bets on the flop and he pushes, which is pretty much why I hate 3 betting flops like these unless I know that I am willing to committ to a showdown from the onset.