QQ flops bottom set - how often am I best here?

[DrewOnTilt]

Live game.

Villain is tight but seemingly predictable - raises with your basic ABC hands, doesn't seem to chase, is on the rockish side but aggressive with his good hands.

I'm the BB with Q /images/graemlins/spade.gifQ /images/graemlins/club.gif
Villain open raises from MP1, folded to me, I 3-bet, Villain calls.

When a player like this open raises and then only calls a 3-bet, I generally put him on a mid pocket pair such as 99-JJ or a big offsuit ace. This range seems to fit such players most of the time.

Flop is Q /images/graemlins/heart.gifK /images/graemlins/spade.gifA /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

I bet, Villain raises, I 3-bet, Villain 4-bets.

OK, I am about 100% sure that he did not open raise with JT. Even the tightest of players will usually cap KK and AA preflop. But the 4-bet has me concerned, because I had not seen Villain get out of line at all in 4 hours of play.

Given my read, how often am I best here? Should I continue to fire, or should the 4-bet slow me down?

[shant]

<font color="purple">I would go more best here since I'm thinking he has AK more than AA or KK.</font>

[Nick C]

[ QUOTE ]
Given my read, how often am I best here? Should I continue to fire, or should the 4-bet slow me down?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think the 4-bet should slow you down.

I'm thinking you're hoping for AK or the mathmatically less likely AQ.

[Nick C]

Some combos:

AK = 9
AQ = 3
AA = 3
KK = 3

So that looks good, but Villain should be thinking about your preflop 3-bet at least a little bit, so I wouldn't go too crazy.

Edit: The lack of a preflop 4-bet does look favorable, though. At the same time, I wouldn't make too much of it, in this heads-up pot.

I don't know exactly how far you should push your hand, but, yeah, I do think you should be concerned.

[Jeff W]

You're a 62.2% favorite vs. AA-KK,AKs-AQs,AKo-AQo,KQs,KQo.
You're a 57.6% favorite vs. AA-KK,AKs-AQs,AKo-AQo.
You're a 51.2% favorite vs. AA-KK,AKs,AKo.

You definitely have to put more action in against an ABC player. I want 3-4 bets to go in on the turn/river, so I use one of two lines(Obviously, go crazy if you quad up.):

1. Bet-call turn. Bet-call river.

2. Check-raise-call turn. Check-call or bet-call river depending on who put the last raise in on the turn.

Edit: If an Ace hits turn/river, I check-call down(bet if he checks behind on turn) because I want 1-2 bets to go in. If a king hits, I want only 2-3 bets to go in.

[Jinx]

I rarely cap KK or AA heads up, because the metagame is worth more than the fact I'll gain 1 more SB from the other guy to see the flop. Not saying that he definitely has KK or AA here, but it's worth a thought.