Another nice one...

[anatta]

I have AsJs UTG and open raise. EP calls. EP is the LAG asian man from the last hand. Button calls, BB call. BB is a very loose, bad player. I did my best to make him look real good here.

Flop Jd7h7s. BB checks, I bet, EP calls, BB calls.

Turn: 4s. I have top pair, top kicker, and a nut flush draw. BB checks, I bet, EP calls, BB check-raises. Sigh. I want to muck, but I have the flush draw, so I call. EP calls.

River: Blank. BB bets out, and I fold as does EP.

[Homer]

Well played.

-- Homer

[anatta]

Glad you think so. I have been questioning my play a lot lately.

[Lee Jones]

Yow. Unless I misunderstand, you folded the top pair, ace-kicker for one bet on the river, with no flush or straight possible? Basically, you gave him credit for a seven?

If so, that was probably a huge mistake. Unless you know your BB really well and know with extreme certainty that he won't make that play without a seven (or a better hand), then you must call.

There were almost 12 BB's in the pot on the river after he bet. Can you be over 92% sure that he had a seven? Not "I think he has a seven", but "I'm over 92% sure that he has a seven." If not, then you need to call.

Regards, Lee

[marbles]

"There were almost 12 BB's in the pot on the river after he bet. Can you be over 92% sure that he had a seven? Not "I think he has a seven", but "I'm over 92% sure that he has a seven." If not, then you need to call."

--It may just be an online thing, but checkraising flopped trips on the turn from the blinds is a hugely popular play these days. If this hand is from low-limit online, that 92% number sounds about right to me. I'd call here, but I certainly wouldn't expect to win.

[Homer]

Heads-up I would certainly call this hand down. In this case, however, there is a bet and a caller, then the SB checkraises. This checkraise is a lot more likely to mean something since there was a bet and a caller before the action got to him. Perhaps calling is still correct since you only need to win 8% of the time for calling to be right. I'm not sure that you win that often, though. I think it is close but I would still fold.

-- Homer

[Clarkmeister]

That's funny, I'd never ever ever ever fold online, but I'd frequently fold live.

I'm surprised no one mentioned the option of 3 betting the turn with the choice of betting or taking the free showdown depending on the river card. Not saying thats the best choice, but its certainly a viable one.

[Bob T.]

Maybe I'm making the mistake here, but I wouldn't fold on the river for one bet, unless I knew that the BB wouldn't make this play without a seven or a full house. Some players might make that play with a flush draw, and you can beat every flush draw.

In your reply above to Homer, you said that you had been questioning your play lately, and I think that if you call in this spot, you won't have so many questions. If the call is wrong, it isn't a huge mistake, but folding might be.

[Lee Jones]

I can't see three-betting since the guy with the seven may well four-bet you, and you can't fold because of your flush draw.

If he's an action player at all, then you don't want to expose yourself to a four-bet on the turn.

And by the way, if he's an action player at all, then you have to call the river, because he may not have what he's promising.

Regards, Lee

[Lee Jones]

I'd call here, but I certainly wouldn't expect to win.

Of course not - I wouldn't expect to win either. But that's the line of thinking that gets us in trouble. It's as if we're betting the money line [1].

But we're not betting the money line, we're taking the odds. Let's put it this way - let's say that an angel came down and said there was a 9/10 chance that you didn't have the best hand. What do you do? Smile, knowing that you're doing the right thing, and call.

Regards, Lee

[1] I think that's the right sports betting term - you're simply trying to pick the winner of the game.