View Full Version : I think this is right.
KenProspero
08-13-2005, 10:41 PM
Hold-em Post flop.
You're holding J /images/graemlins/diamond.gifT /images/graemlins/diamond.gif
Flop is A /images/graemlins/diamond.gifQ /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 6 /images/graemlins/club.gif
25 in the pot (heads up) and opp bets $60, all in.
You're sitting with 12 outs (maybe discount to 11) and 1.4-1 pot odds to call an all-in better (heads up).
Easy call, right?
mosdef
08-13-2005, 11:14 PM
it's not such an "easy" call. i think this is slightly +EV, something like your expected profit if you call is $0.50. so it is a call, but it's not a huge money maker.
Luzion
08-13-2005, 11:23 PM
mosdef, are you really an actuary?
Oh and btw, you have to call this everytime unless you have a really good reason to believe he has a flopped set... in which case it would be -EV to call....Also if he holds Kd and has an Ace or Queen as his sidecard, it would be slightly -EV to call as well...
wuarhg
08-13-2005, 11:31 PM
This is kind of a thread hijacking since the title goes along fine with my very easy query. So . . . I am just trying to determine what percentage of all hands the following are.
AA KK QQ JJ TT 99 88 77 66 55 44 = 66 ways
AKo AQo AJo ATo A9o A8o A7o A6o A5o A4o = 160 ways
AKs AQs AJs ATs A9s A8s A7s A6s A5s A4s A3s A2s = 48 ways
KQo KJo KTo K9o K8o K7o = 96 ways
KQs KJs KTs K9s K8s K7s K6s K5s K4s = 36
QJo QTo = 32 ways
QJs QTs Q9s = 12 ways
JTo = 16 ways
JTs J9s = 8 ways
T9s = 4 ways
For a total of 478 ways.
So that means... 478 / 1326 = ~36% of all hands?
spaminator101
08-13-2005, 11:32 PM
i call
you will usually make money but even if you dont playing the marginal hands helps your image unless you were on a low bankroll i would call this
Luzion
08-13-2005, 11:50 PM
[ QUOTE ]
This is kind of a thread hijacking since the title goes along fine with my very easy query. So . . . I am just trying to determine what percentage of all hands the following are.
AA KK QQ JJ TT 99 88 77 66 55 44 = 66 ways
AKo AQo AJo ATo A9o A8o A7o A6o A5o A4o = 160 ways
[/ QUOTE ]
I think this is wrong...it should be 120 ways...I think you accidently also counted the hands that would be Axs
[ QUOTE ]
AKs AQs AJs ATs A9s A8s A7s A6s A5s A4s A3s A2s = 48 ways
KQo KJo KTo K9o K8o K7o = 96 ways
[/ QUOTE ]
I think you counted the Kxs hands again... Im pretty sure it should be 72 ways...
[ QUOTE ]
KQs KJs KTs K9s K8s K7s K6s K5s K4s = 36
QJo QTo = 32 ways
[/ QUOTE ]
24 ways...
[ QUOTE ]
QJs QTs Q9s = 12 ways
JTo = 16 ways
[/ QUOTE ]
12 ways, since you counted JTs
[ QUOTE ]
JTs J9s = 8 ways
T9s = 4 ways
For a total of 478 ways.
So that means... 478 / 1326 = ~36% of all hands?
[/ QUOTE ]
Now it should be 402/1326 = 30.3%
wuarhg
08-14-2005, 10:43 AM
Oh, okay thanks. So AKo = 12 ways and AKs = 4 ways and they both add up to 16 ways. I got it now /images/graemlins/ooo.gif
mosdef
08-14-2005, 11:38 AM
1. not quite. i work for an actuarial consulting firm, will be an actuary next year
2. my statement about the EV is based on his assumptions - that he needs to hit one of his 11 outs to win.
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