EV help

[Hoopster81]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

UTG ($41.25)
UTG+1 ($50.25)
UTG+2 ($70.42)
MP1 ($66.25)
MP2 ($50)
MP3 ($11.60)
CO ($38.80)
Hero ($68.95)
SB ($36.80)
BB ($51.65)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif, T/images/graemlins/spade.gif. MP2 posts a blind of $0.50. SB posts a blind of $0.25.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls $0.50, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP1 calls $0.50, MP2 (poster) checks, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, CO calls $0.50, Hero calls $0.50, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB checks.

Flop: ($3.25) K/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(6 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 bets $3</font>, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, CO folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $10</font>, BB folds, UTG+1 calls $46.75 (All-In), Hero calls $39.75.

I'll assume he makes this move with 2 pair (best case), so:

cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Qs Ts 395 39.90 595 60.10 0 0.00 0.399
2c Kd 595 60.10 395 39.90 0 0.00 0.601


So to me it looks like I have to call $39.15 to win a pot of $63.00. (39.15) / (63.00) = 0.62, and this is where I get stuck. Appreciate any help.

Thanks

[Godfather80]

[ QUOTE ]
Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

UTG ($41.25)
UTG+1 ($50.25)
UTG+2 ($70.42)
MP1 ($66.25)
MP2 ($50)
MP3 ($11.60)
CO ($38.80)
Hero ($68.95)
SB ($36.80)
BB ($51.65)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif, T/images/graemlins/spade.gif. MP2 posts a blind of $0.50. SB posts a blind of $0.25.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls $0.50, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP1 calls $0.50, MP2 (poster) checks, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, CO calls $0.50, Hero calls $0.50, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB checks.

Flop: ($3.25) K/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(6 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 bets $3</font>, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, CO folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $10</font>, BB folds, UTG+1 calls $46.75 (All-In), Hero calls $39.75.

I'll assume he makes this move with 2 pair (best case), so:

cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Qs Ts 395 39.90 595 60.10 0 0.00 0.399
2c Kd 595 60.10 395 39.90 0 0.00 0.601


So to me it looks like I have to call $39.15 to win a pot of $63.00. (39.15) / (63.00) = 0.62, and this is where I get stuck. Appreciate any help.

Thanks

[/ QUOTE ]

If villain has exactly what you say he has: K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif2/images/graemlins/club.gif, then you will win 40% of the time.
That means you need 6:4 odds or 1.5:1 in order to make this call.

The pot appears to have $16.25 in it before villain pushes for another $46.75. So, you need to call $39.15 to win a pot of $63.00. You are getting 62:38 or just better than 1.5:1. So, you can make this call, but it is just barely profitable in the long run with very large variance.

If UTG+1 raising ranges include K2o in that position, I'd get a giggle out of it.

Tears

[Godfather80]

[ QUOTE ]
If UTG+1 raising ranges include K2o in that position, I'd get a giggle out of it.

Tears

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with you, but OP was very specific about that this was the hand he was up against and wanted to know the EV of.