AJo makes strong hand vs LAP maniac and TAA

[DavidC]

(Cross posted in SS LHE because, what the heck, I only posted one hand today...)

The first cold-caller is a TAA (18-10-1.88 after 226 hands), the second caller is a bit of an enigma, the BB is unknown...

The second caller has VPIP 55, PFR 10, and aggression of 0.75... so the aggression is pretty low here. This is after 220ish hands. However, I've seen him make some crazy plays, raising with some very weak hands on the turn (and slowplaying monsters, pumping flush draws, etc. his play is quite unpredictable).

I have no notes on the TAA, because I'm a moran.

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Party Poker (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A/images/graemlins/heart.gif, J/images/graemlins/spade.gif. 1.5 SB /images/graemlins/cool.gif
Hero raises, 2 folds, TAA calls, 1 fold, LPP calls in mp3, folded to bb, who calls.

Flop: 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font> 8.5 sb
Hero bets, TAA and LPP call, BB folds.

Turn: 3/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font> 5.75 bb
Hero bets, TAA calls, LPP raises, Hero calls, TAA calls.

River: 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font> 11.75 bb
Hero bets, planning to call a raise from the LPP.

[MrWookie47]

Why the SnG? You're not planning on folding to a raise. Why not just 3bet the turn and charge the TAG while he's still drawing to something? I guess this costs one more bet if you're behind, but you win a lot more when you're ahead. Also, 0.75 aggression from someone with a VPIP of 55 is fairly high. If you scale his aggression factor by the ratio of his VPIP to your VPIP, his aggression is about 1.6, which means, while he's probably a shade bit more passive than you, he's betting and raising most of the same sort of stuff you do, while he's still calling w/ the shady trash he limped in with. The chances that this raise is A3, A6, or J6 are too huge to miss bets when a mildly aggressive player wakes up. I fear not the set until I have a fair bit more evidence.

[Fantam]

When LPP raised the turn, I suspect that he had either slowplayed a set (66) on the flop, or else that the 3 improved his hand.

If the turn card improved his hand, I imagine that he most likely improved to a set (33), although 2 pair is a possibility if he had say A3(s).

A set looks most likely to me, so I would have preferred to check/call the river as opposed to bet/calling.

I suspect that you were ahead of the TAA and the rest of the hand looked fine to me.

[itsmesteve]

I agree with the Wookie. I three bet the turn. Force out the TAG in between you. If it gets capped i'd just ck call the river. Otherwise I'd take the line you did on the river.

[DavidC]

[ QUOTE ]
Why the SnG? You're not planning on folding to a raise. Why not just 3bet the turn and charge the TAG while he's still drawing to something? I guess this costs one more bet if you're behind, but you win a lot more when you're ahead. Also, 0.75 aggression from someone with a VPIP of 55 is fairly high. If you scale his aggression factor by the ratio of his VPIP to your VPIP, his aggression is about 1.6, which means, while he's probably a shade bit more passive than you, he's betting and raising most of the same sort of stuff you do, while he's still calling w/ the shady trash he limped in with. The chances that this raise is A3, A6, or J6 are too huge to miss bets when a mildly aggressive player wakes up. I fear not the set until I have a fair bit more evidence.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hey man, thanks for the response.

I'm mildly concerned about what the LAP may have here, but I'm not prepared to give up on the hand (Edit: Duh pot odds won't let me fold! What I mean is that I'm not relaly willing to give up on the notion that I'm ahead in the hand yet.) . However, I'm also not really prepared to go to war with him. For example, I don't quite feel comfortable with three-betting the turn, calling a cap, and betting the river, calling a raise (or checkraising and calling a three-bet). Three-betting here and then check-calling the river is alright, unless the river is an ace, or a jack, in which case it's go-time again.

However, let's take a moment to think about what the TAA might have, and weigh the risks of action vs the LAA against the risks of action vs the TAA.

Also, thanks for the info re: aggression levels of villains with high vpips!

[Fantam]

I suspect that the TAG might have had something like AK,AQ or perhaps TT.

Its also possible that he had AJs and could have had the same hand as you.

Anyway I would have preferred to have an overcall from the TAG on the turn, as opposed to raising and possibly losing the TAG's call and risking being 3-bet by a better hand from the LPP.

[itsmesteve]

What about letting the TAG draw to whatever hand he has? What about being 3 bet by a worse hand that the loose player has? A6, A3 are distinct possibilities in my mind. Obviously a set is too, but no need to play in fear- especially when the OP states that he is KNOWN to make strange plays with weak hands on the turn.

Obviously JJ or AA could be out as well, but there's only one combo of those and its hard to believe anyone waited till the turn with them, though I guess its possible.
I don't think the TAG would with the possible gutshot out there. Possible on the flop, but extremely doubtful on the turn.

If we want to include all four pocket pairs in the pseudo-passive players range, that's 6 hands we're behind
(AA JJ 33 2 ways, 66 2 ways). A3s and A6s are possibilities- that's 4 hands we're ahead of. If we include unsuited A3 and A6 that adds another 4 we're ahead of. We also have to take into account that he can make funny plays with weak hands. There's a good chance we're ahead here. So lets say we're ahead 10 times out of 16- about 63%, more than enough to three bet IMO.

The only range that makes sense to me, for the TAG, is a suited ace that has 3 outs against us, at most. KQs could've made sense on the flop, but he should ditch on the turn. I don't think he'd have slowplayed JJ this long, and he would've found a raise with AA somewhere. Granted he's not getting odds to draw on the turn, but I think the number of bets we can win from the wacky player outweighs the one BB overcall on the turn. After the turn action, he may very well fold for one on the river UI.

The more I think about it, the more I like a three bet.

[DavidC]

It might be worth checking out Argus' reply in SS. I don't know if I'm correct to do what I do, but he sees what I'm trying to do in this hand...

Basically, I'm putting the TAA on "not-a-gutshot" and "not-a-pocket-pair" (due to the turn call). That leaves AK and AQ, and I'm pretty sure it's more likely to be AQ, given the pf action.

Therefore he's got 3 outs, and I'm delighted to allow him to call, getting 11:1 odds on a 14:1 shot. If I'm ahead, this is an extra $1.33 in my pocket (I'm not sure about this, as villain may have outs to win, though, but it does add SOMETHING to my pocket). If a Q hits the river, I check, call a bet or fold if it's two back to me. If a K hits the river, I bet out and start crying if it's two back to me... not sure what my exact action is, but it starts with crying... If it's any blank card, I bet and try to rope in the TAA for two bets, by just calling a raise.

I was a little nervous, as I've said, about what the maniacal guy might have, but I figure getting another few bets in the pot with him is still a Good Thing. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Here's a neat question, though... if the TAA folds, should I be bet-calling the river, or check-raise-calling?

As it turns out, I bet, TAA stews and folds, maniac raises, and I call. Maniac shows A6.

There is a question as to whether or not I could have made more from the maniac than the TAA, but my problem here is that I didn't want to cap both streets with the maniac. It's pretty brutal, because he just might have the set, and I'm not interested in laying only 2:1 odds against that (I'd be putting 8 bets into a 16 bb pot).

This play kinda mitigates my risk against the maniac, and desperately tries to get the TAA in there for two bets.

I think the TAA knew what was going on when I stop-and-go'ed him. Great fold if he did have AQ.

--Dave.

Also, this guy could even have 33 at this point, for the turned set! /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[MrWookie47]

Thanks for the PM. I am happy to take a further look at his hank, even when drunk.

The hna'd s you fear from LPP are 66 an d 343. There are 3 ways each he could have one of those, and 6 ways each he oucledd haeve A6 of #A3. You'rea aheaed of twice his posssible hosldingas as t this point.

[Doc7]

[ QUOTE ]
Thanks for the PM. I am happy to take a further look at his hank, even when drunk.

The hna'd s you fear from LPP are 66 an d 343. There are 3 ways each he could have one of those, and 6 ways each he oucledd haeve A6 of #A3. You'rea aheaed of twice his posssible hosldingas as t this point.

[/ QUOTE ]

dude you need to come back and post responses in the morning, this drunk thing isn't working out : )

[MrWookie47]

But it feels so good to be gdrunk. And if I wans n't drunk, i'd be dilting by BR away after tahat asame punkass cracked by top seet twoce withing two orbtits.

[itsmesteve]

I saw the SS post and realized I miscalculated the number of hands you're behind. That makes the turn decision a lot closer, obviously. I can see going for the overcall, but the odds aren't too terrible, i'm sure he figures with his position he can extract the river bets he needs to to make the implied odds right. . . . though his outs aren't really clean, as they could fill a gutshot. I just thought you stood to make more from the maniac. Since you said you were looking to mitigate risk, the line is fine. It was a nice hand to post, because i think it is a close/interesting decision.

IMO, I'm still raising and going to war with the maniac, because I really think I'm ahead of him when I know he makes weird turn plays regularly. The only concern i'd have is knowing how far he'd take it- that is to say, can i get a lot of bets out of his A6 A3 or whatever.