AQ against aggression [Archive] - Two Plus Two Older Archives

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WSOP Bound

08-13-2005, 09:06 AM

I've been on the table for about two orbits. So far it's a typical UB table (read: sLP). UTG+1 seems slightly aggressive, but then again with only 20 hands it doesn't mean too much. Over 20 or so hands even the most passive among us can look like a maniac.

Ultimate Bet 0.25/0.50 Hold'em (8 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, Hero raises, 1 fold, CO calls, 3 folds, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: (9.40 SB) 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 2/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif (4 players)
UTG checks, UTG+1 bets, Hero raises, CO calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 3-bets, Hero caps, CO calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: (12.70 BB) 8/images/graemlins/club.gif (4 players)
UTG checks, UTG+1 bets, Hero ???

What do I do here? I capped the flop and he leads back out on the turn. Certainly seems like he has a hand, but to some extent so do I. I can't seem to decide wether it's correct to throw in another raise or go into call down mode right here.

Edit: Obviously he leads the turn after I capped the flop. I need more sleep /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Dave G.

08-13-2005, 09:20 AM

If it looks like a set, smells like a set, and acts like a set... it's probably a set. He knows you raised PF, he knows you probably have an ace, and he doesn't care.

I would fold it right here. I know I'll probably be tarred and feathered for suggesting that after capping the flop, but I'd really like to hear a decent argument for continuing from this point. What can we hope for? We don't have odds to draw to another A and a Q may not help us at all. The only hand he could play like this that we're infront of is A2. Not a very wide range of hands.

We should only continue if we aren't sure if we're beaten. Considering the action, I'm pretty damn sure we're beaten. I can't see how calling down from here isn't anything more than a further waste of 2 BB.

08-13-2005, 10:00 AM

I think it smells like A8s. Utg+1 limp seems pretty typical with that hand, and with all that agression on the flop, and betting out on the turn, i'd fold the turn. not a lot of hands you beat.

Watain

08-13-2005, 10:24 AM

Well, he is representing two-pair or a-k. If you don´t have a good read, i would´nt put him on a bluff. And CO+UTG presence should mean that you are NOT ahead here.

If you hit an A on the river you are properbly good. But i looks like 1 or 2 of them is already in play. I give you 1 out for the A then. Lets say there is a 1/3 chance that someone hit a set of 8. That would ruin you Q. I give them 2 outs.

So you are drawing to three outs. I would consider folding this because you might be raised or c/r on the flop.

NobodysFreak

08-13-2005, 11:13 AM

Grunching...

He called your PFR so I think its safe to assume he doesn't have a bigger ace or something like AA, KK, QQ, or AK. I'm likely putting him on two pair or a set on the flop. Once the turn hits, I'm mucking this. An A is probably the only card that can save you and it looks like villian might have it. I think its safe to muck on the turn.

gharp

08-13-2005, 11:35 AM

The flop action is consistent with an aggressive player who had A2 or a smaller A (AT, AJ). You're not really sure if he's aggressive, but over a small sample all indications are that he is.

I think you're getting 6:1 to call down here and there are two other players padding the pot who are probably drawing thin. I'll take those odds (with that overlay) and call down. I'm not folding top frickin pair in this pot.

bozlax

08-13-2005, 12:03 PM

[ QUOTE ]
UTG+1 seems slightly aggressive

...

Certainly seems like he has a hand, but to some extent so do I.

[/ QUOTE ]

You have more than a hand to some extent...you have a very strong hand. You are very possibly drawing dead, here, but against a relative unknown I'm going to call down. If UTG or CO comes alive and starts raising I'll bail out, but otherwise I want to show this down and make Villan look me in the eye (metaphorically) when he shows me his ATo.

bozlax

08-13-2005, 12:09 PM

[ QUOTE ]
The only hand he could play like this that we're infront of is A2. Not a very wide range of hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree. You're not allowing for a very wide range of hands. It's .25/.50, for Mike's sake! Villan could have a mid-pp. He could have a weaker ace. He could have a big-pp that he didn't want to raise preflop because he just read the section in WLLH about position. Who knows?

Call it down. It certainly looks like he's going to be aggro with whatever he's holding, but you're being padded by the two additional players. I don't want to get into a war with him (unless a third ace falls), tho, so soft-play to showdown.

bozlax

08-13-2005, 12:14 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I would consider folding this because you might be raised or c/r on the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, you're not going to be c/r'd anywhere, and not on the flop, either. And since UTG and CO didn't act up on the flop, and you seem to think UTG+1 is holding all the cards, I doubt you're going to see a raise from anybody on the turn or river. So, you're risking 2 bets to win what looks like it'll be 18...you really think at .25/.50 you're bad more than 8 times in 9?

Dave G.

08-13-2005, 12:30 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I agree. You're not allowing for a very wide range of hands. It's .25/.50, for Mike's sake! Villan could have a mid-pp. He could have a weaker ace. He could have a big-pp that he didn't want to raise preflop because he just read the section in WLLH about position. Who knows?

[/ QUOTE ]

Come on. I think you're being a little naive here. We raised preflop, capped the flop and he's still firing on the turn. There is quite obviously an ace on the board that he simply doesn't care about. Now I know we play some really stupid horrible players, but only a full blown maniac is going this crazy on this board without the goods. That read certainly wasn't mentioned anywhere in the post.

How much evidence would you need to realise that our chances of being good here are tiny? Top pair is a nice hand and all, but more than likely we're just padding the pot for villain. Some of the best money we make off sets comes from everyone calling all the way with second best hands. That's what our hand is here the overwhelming majority of the time.

Calling down here is like picking up a dollar coin and throwing it away. I'll eat my hat if hero wins this hand.

WSOP Bound

08-13-2005, 03:49 PM

[ QUOTE ]
you really think at .25/.50 you're bad more than 8 times in 9?

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, given your evaluation what can villian reasonably have here.

Hands that beat us: 22, 88, A8, AK
Hands that we beat: A2, AJ (stretch), AT (stretch)
Hands that chop: AQ

I don't have much experience, so let me know if I'm doing this wrong. I omit AT & AJ because I personally think they are quite a stretch. A quick run of the Stove shows:

1,232 games 0.005 secs 246,400 games/sec

Board: 8d 2c As 8c
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 33.0763 % 19.89% 13.19% { AdQd }
Hand 2: 66.9237 % 53.73% 13.19% { 88, 22, AQs+, A8s, A2s, AQo+, A8o, A2o }

Bottom line: I seem to have enough to call this down.

WSOP Bound

08-13-2005, 03:54 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I would fold it right here. I know I'll probably be tarred and feathered for suggesting that after capping the flop

[/ QUOTE ]

Given this viewpoint should I have respected his three bet on the flop more and just called there? folded? I tend not to think so since capping with position defined villians hand much more once he bets out. But, could I have confidently saved a SB and folded UI on the river?

WSOP Bound

08-13-2005, 04:09 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I'll eat my hat if hero wins this hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you prefer hats with Ketchup or Mustard? /images/graemlins/grin.gif Still not sure if I played this right, but it did work out this time.

Ultimate Bet 0.25/0.50 Hold'em (8 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, Hero raises, 1 fold, CO calls, 3 folds, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: (9.40 SB) 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 2/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif (4 players)
UTG checks, UTG+1 bets, Hero raises, CO calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 3-bets, Hero caps, CO calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: (12.70 BB) 8/images/graemlins/club.gif (4 players)
UTG checks, UTG+1 bets, Hero calls, CO calls, UTG folds.

River: (15.70 BB) 7/images/graemlins/club.gif (3 players)
UTG+1 bets, Hero calls, CO calls.

Final Pot: 18.70 BB

UTG+1 has 2s Ah (two pair, aces and eights).
Hero has Ad Qd (two pair, aces and eights).
CO has Kc Ks (two pair, kings and eights).

Outcome: Hero wins 18.70 BB.

NateDog

08-13-2005, 04:19 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'll eat my hat if hero wins this hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you prefer hats with Ketchup or Mustard? /images/graemlins/grin.gif Still not sure if I played this right, but it did work out this time.

Ultimate Bet 0.25/0.50 Hold'em (8 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, Hero raises, 1 fold, CO calls, 3 folds, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: (9.40 SB) 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 2/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif (4 players)
UTG checks, UTG+1 bets, Hero raises, CO calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 3-bets, Hero caps, CO calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: (12.70 BB) 8/images/graemlins/club.gif (4 players)
UTG checks, UTG+1 bets, Hero calls, CO calls, UTG folds.

River: (15.70 BB) 7/images/graemlins/club.gif (3 players)
UTG+1 bets, Hero calls, CO calls.

Final Pot: 18.70 BB

UTG+1 has 2s Ah (two pair, aces and eights).
Hero has Ad Qd (two pair, aces and eights).
CO has Kc Ks (two pair, kings and eights).

Outcome: Hero wins 18.70 BB.

[/ QUOTE ]

Congratulations, you hit a 5 outer. So the LP's flop 3 bet did mean he had you. At least you gave yourself odds to call down with the flop cap.

WSOP Bound

08-13-2005, 05:15 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Congratulations, you hit a 5 outer. So the LP's flop 3 bet did mean he had you. At least you gave yourself odds to call down with the flop cap.

[/ QUOTE ]

I posed a question earlier about the flop cap. I wasn't convinced that it was the correct line. I capped so that I could see if villian would lead the turn and he did, so it feels like I paid a SB for information that I didn't use. What would your line be?

08-13-2005, 05:20 PM

Also, when you do eat your hand, please post the digital image on here...
cdl
/images/graemlins/grin.gif

Dave G.

08-13-2005, 10:47 PM

Haha. No problem, I'll head on down to the shop and find a nice, chocolate hat... and no, no pictures will be posted. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

Still, though, here you were lucky enough to find a villain that didn't understand that the turn ruined his hand. Most of the time I wouldn't expect this to happen. Since winning money is about making the plays that are successful more than they're unsuccessful, I still think folding this turn is right.

cfjr2

08-13-2005, 11:38 PM

[ QUOTE ]

Congratulations, you hit a 5 outer. So the LP's flop 3 bet did mean he had you. At least you gave yourself odds to call down with the flop cap.

[/ QUOTE ]
did you miss the Q outs?
3xQ, 3x8, 2xA = 8, I would discount the A's tho.

WSOP Bound

08-14-2005, 12:08 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Still, though, here you were lucky enough to find a villain that didn't understand that the turn ruined his hand. Most of the time I wouldn't expect this to happen. Since winning money is about making the plays that are successful more than they're unsuccessful, I still think folding this turn is right.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are absolutely right that just because I won doesn't mean I played it right. And although I felt compelled to tell you it was time to eat your hat, I do certainly appreciatte your commentary. The turn is one of two parts that really made me uncomfortable here. The other was the flop cap which I'm not truly convinced was correct either.

It seemed likely that villian had either two pair or a set on the flop. This means that the possible holdings were 22, 88, A2, A8 and 82. We should eliminate 82 up front since almost anyone would fold that preflop. I think that the non two pair or set hands that could play like this are AK and AQ. This leaves likely hands being 22, 88, A2, A8, AQ, AK.

By the turn which seems to be the decision point there are
6 combinations of A2
4 combinations of A8
3 combinations of 22
1 combination of 88
8 combinations of AK
6 combinations of AQ

I'll count all of A8 and 22, 88. One of A2 since it's not as likely that villian is leading the turn when the board counterfits his hand. 1 of AK since I expect a PFR from that hand and 1 of AQ because I also expect a PFR from it.

So assuming that at least one of UTG or CO will stick around until the end by calling down I net:

17BB 1 times (A2) = +17BB
-2BB 4 times (A8) = -8BB
-2BB 3 times (22) = -6BB
-2BB 1 times (88) = -2BB
-2BB 1 times (AK) = -2BB
8.5BB 1 times(AQ) = +8.5BB

This means that by calling down I net 7.5BB on average, where as by folding I obviously net 0. Even by assuming that I call, CO & UTG both fold and UTG+1 bets the river I net 1.5BB by calling down. Is there something flawed in my analysis here? If so please point it out. I'm certainly not used to do this kind of thing, but it's something I'm trying to learn.

Dave G.

08-14-2005, 01:25 AM

Your analysis isn't bad, but it's a bit too straight forward. A lot of people in this thread mentioned the benefit of having 2 other people in the hand. Well yes, it's good to have them putting money into the pot when they don't outdraw you, but some percentage of the time, one of these two people will either have you beaten already with trip 8s (or even a very timidly played AK), or will outdraw you on the end. There's a flush draw on the board, and someone else could have another A and pair their kicker (doesn't matter unless that kicker is higher than 8).

Additionally, if you do catch a Q and someone has something like Q8, or the Q/images/graemlins/club.gif falls and someone has the flush, you're going to lose a lot more than just 2BB. If you do catch an A and UTG has 88 (which certainly can't be ignored), you're going to lose more as well.

Another thing is that you aren't guaranteed to see a showdown for only 2BB. If someone raises behind you and UTG 3-bets, you aren't getting to showdown at all (I hope).

Rare those all of these occurances might be, combined they aren't all THAT rare, especially with 3 other people still in the hand. They will occur with some probability and that needs to be factored into your assessment somehow. Simply saying that calling down is +EV 7.5BB only tells half the story.

So really, the 2 extra players are actually a double edged sword. Yes their money is good, but it's not all peaches and roses. If you had position on them it would be better, but since one of them has position on you, their disadvantage is moreso.

Given that you are behind most of the time here, and all of these other considerations, I think folding is the correct play.

WSOP Bound

08-14-2005, 01:47 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Your analysis isn't bad, but it's a bit too straight forward. A lot of people in this thread mentioned the benefit of having 2 other people in the hand. Well yes, it's good to have them putting money into the pot when they don't outdraw you, but some percentage of the time, one of these two people will either have you beaten already with trip 8s (or even a very timidly played AK), or will outdraw you on the end. There's a flush draw on the board, and someone else could have another A and pair their kicker (doesn't matter unless that kicker is higher than 8).

Additionally, if you do catch a Q and someone has something like Q8, or the Q/images/graemlins/club.gif falls and someone has the flush, you're going to lose a lot more than just 2BB. If you do catch an A and UTG has 88 (which certainly can't be ignored), you're going to lose more as well.

Another thing is that you aren't guaranteed to see a showdown for only 2BB. If someone raises behind you and UTG 3-bets, you aren't getting to showdown at all (I hope).

Rare those all of these occurances might be, combined they aren't all THAT rare, especially with 3 other people still in the hand. They will occur with some probability and that needs to be factored into your assessment somehow. Simply saying that calling down is +EV 7.5BB only tells half the story.

So really, the 2 extra players are actually a double edged sword. Yes their money is good, but it's not all peaches and roses. If you had position on them it would be better, but since one of them has position on you, their disadvantage is moreso.

Given that you are behind most of the time here, and all of these other considerations, I think folding is the correct play.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed. There are a lot of possibilities that I did not account for. I think that this is a very good point that I was missing. Is there a sufficent way to quantify these scenarios when making these desisions or is this just an experience issue? I'm guessing that the first step is to not ignore UTG & CO. But the problem is that I have difficulty putting them on a hand.