The *official* lag hand of the week

[thabadguy]

Hello MHNL.
Here's my Lag Hand.
10-25nl at borgata..my stack about 6k, villains stack about 4k
I am in MP, villain is on Button,he is not very good, weak passive..always bitching bout something..hates life cuz every morning he wakes up as himself, very tight, his reraises means a hand.
I have a very LAG image.
1 limp to me, i make it 120 with 3c3d ,he makes it 300, all else fold, i call.
flop is 8h Kd 7d ,
I check, he bets 500 i call.
Turn is 4c.
Check Check
river is 9h, i bet 2k.
Standard? Thoughts?

[mgsimpleton]

ummmm ok well when you check called did you do that to represent flush when it comes? did you do that because you put him on QQ-JJ and wanted to see if he checked behind on turn to take it away on river?

i mean if he's weak tight he will probably fold QQ or lower here. but if he's weak tight i can also see him having AK or AA and checking behind on turn because that's what weak tight people do, and then on river he is calling. this looks a lot like a missed flush draw IMO or it could be a set that missed a check raise. if i'm not weak tight and i have anything and you are as lag as you are i am calling, but this is if i am not weak tight. most likely he has QQ type hand and you take him off it but to anyone who has played poker i don't know what you are really trying to represent, it looks like aggression for aggression's sake.

edit: i like this play a LOT more if you do it in position. calling to take away out of position is usually disastrous, IMHO.

[thabadguy]

[ QUOTE ]
ummmm ok well when you check called did you do that to represent flush when it comes? did you do that because you put him on QQ-JJ and wanted to see if he checked behind on turn to take it away on river?

i mean if he's weak tight he will probably fold QQ or lower here. but if he's weak tight i can also see him having AK or AA and checking behind on turn because that's what weak tight people do, and then on river he is calling. this looks a lot like a missed flush draw IMO or it could be a set that missed a check raise. if i'm not weak tight and i have anything and you are as lag as you are i am calling, but this is if i am not weak tight. most likely he has QQ type hand and you take him off it but to anyone who has played poker i don't know what you are really trying to represent, it looks like aggression for aggression's sake.

edit: i like this play a LOT more if you do it in position. calling to take away out of position is usually disastrous, IMHO.

[/ QUOTE ]
You do understand the the 9 is not a complete blank right?
Do you like this move a lot bettre if he bet the turn?
I agree that this play would be a lot better in position, but then it is almost "standard" for me, i wanted to see what mhnl thought of a bluff like this OOP.

[mgsimpleton]

9 is sort of a blank, unless you are representing 999 exactly, which is the only hand that got there on the river. but in that way, any card could give you a set on the river.

[AEKDBet]

I would think villain is most afraid of 2 pair - K9 first, and 89 second.

[mythrilfox]

Think he means 56.

I don't like it unless villain will outthink himself here and fold. I understand your image is also maniacally laggy most of the time, I can't see even a weak-tight player folding AA/KK here.

[thabadguy]

Im not looking for him to fold KK, i dont think he checks behind on blank turn with KK. AA AK QQ maybe JJ, is what he has.

[mgsimpleton]

[ QUOTE ]
Think he means 56.

I don't like it unless villain will outthink himself here and fold. I understand your image is also maniacally laggy most of the time, I can't see even a weak-tight player folding AA/KK here.

[/ QUOTE ]

56 got there on the turn. 9 is a blank except ::sigh:: 89 or JT. but it is a blank in that it appears not to help, which is all a blank can be. sure any card can help any person but when you play 94s and hit two pair with a 9 for instance, a seeming blank makes your hand. and that is really the ONLY value of playing trash. trash aside, the 9 is a blank.

[mikech]

does a weak-tight player even bet that flop with QQ/JJ? is he so weak-tight that he'd actually fold AA/AK? i like his line a lot if he had AA, it's a fine pot-control play in position with a one-pair hand (of course he MUST call the river bet if he takes that line).

[mgsimpleton]

p.s. are you wary of people checking behind the turn with monsters to induce your bluffs? do people do this to you a lot? seems like if i got KK here maybe i check behind versus you you crazy lag bastahd.

[thabadguy]

[ QUOTE ]
p.s. are you wary of people checking behind the turn with monsters to induce your bluffs? do people do this to you a lot? seems like if i got KK here maybe i check behind versus you you crazy lag bastahd.

[/ QUOTE ]
Stop being a DICK, BRO.

[mikech]

[ QUOTE ]
Stop being a DICK, BRO.

[/ QUOTE ]
awesome.

[n1bd]

This sort of thing is fine in general, but here I think the chance of runnning into a better hand is too high to make it worth it unless you know that: 1) he almost never checks that turn with a made hand he likes, and/or 2) you can get him to lay down AK on the river some of the time.

Your bluff has to succeed 55% of the time to be profitable, a little worse than 8:7.

He can have QQ 6 ways, AA/AK/KK 21 ways. Maybe he has JJ occasionally, but it seems unlikely, so say QQ/JJ is 7 or 8 combos.

Let's say he always bets the flop with all these hands, and always checks the turn with QQ/JJ. If he takes the "check the turn to control the pot/induce a river bluff/I am a weak tight weenie" line even 1/3 of the time with AK+, then your bluff is looking slightly bad: he calls you 7 times for every 7-8 times he folds. Your description of him as "weak passive" worries me, since it makes a turn check with a decent hand much more likely.

If he sometimes checks the flop with QQ/JJ, then things are looking even worse for you.

But, like I said at the top, if his turn check is a strong indicator of his hand strength, then things are looking a lot better. If he can lay down AK to a big scary bet, things are looking better. Him laying down AK+ seems unlikely, though, since 1) if he has AK on the end after checking the turn, then he probably checked the turn precisely so he could induce and pick off a bluff, so he isn't folding; 2) he sees you as a LAG; and 3) the flop had several possible draws that missed.

This move definitely has metagame value from getting your real hands paid off, but it's hard to quantify that value.

So, in conclusion, this is a marginal move. His hand range preflop gives him too many hands he can call you with unless he plays very predictably post-flop. If you think you can read him very well or get a lot of shania value, okay, otherwise, I think you can find better spots for this move.

[Heimdal]

I really enjoy reading about your play but there is something I don’t understand: When I bluff I usually try to represent something. It doesn’t sound like you are trying to do that. You just bet big because they probably can’t call 2K with QQ or whatever they have. And then hope they fold.

You only play your opponent’s hand. It doesn’t sound like you care much about what your opponent thinks you have. Am I right? (and if I am, why don‘t you think about this?)

And in this hand, why the big bet on river - don’t you think 1-1.5K is enough to get the job done? (I’m not trying to be a dick like others…)

[thabadguy]

There is a ton of hands i would take this line with. 56, JT,89. My check on the turn is to basically know his hand strength, he bets that turn 100% of the time with a set.
The reason he would bet a set there 100% of the time, is because he would expect me to CR him , so he can get his stack in.
The reason he checks the turn is because he is scared of a big CR.
If he bets on the turn, i think im done with it.
But BECAUSE he checks the turn it is a 1 pair hand which he folds to a pot/overpot on a lotta river cards.
If he checks the turn here with a set, then he will get me to bluff on a lotta rivers, the down side being hes giving me a free card a little too often.
The reason i lead strong on the river is because the 9 is not a complete blank, yet it is not obviously a card that helps me, as duck pointed out, I mean there has to be a decent amount of doubt in his mind, the river bet is playing on the thinking that.."why would he bluff on a non-obvious card"

This bluff was an experiment to see what people think of bluffing when a semi-blank falls on the river. I would like to hear more thoughts on it.

[KowCiller]

[ QUOTE ]
but if he's weak tight i can also see him having AK or AA and checking behind on turn because that's what weak tight people do, and then on river he is calling.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wouldn't this typically be the correct line in position against a LAG?

KoW

[thabadguy]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
but if he's weak tight i can also see him having AK or AA and checking behind on turn because that's what weak tight people do, and then on river he is calling.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wouldn't this typically be the correct line in position against a LAG?

KoW

[/ QUOTE ]
Yes it is, but then you have be willing to call river overbet with 1 pair.