Gutshot to nuts + BDFD

[OrianasDaad]

Party Poker 0.50/1.00 Hold'em <font color="#0000FF">(10 handed)</font> link (http://www.darksun.lunarpages.com/poker/)

All limpers are loose and passive.

Preflop: Hero is BB with J/images/graemlins/spade.gif, T/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
UTG calls, MP1 calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, CO checks, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Hero checks.

Flop: (4.50 SB) 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif, K/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
Hero checks, UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 bets</font>, CO calls, Hero ??

I'm pretty sure I know what to do here, but I'm just making sure.

[ltb]

yeah, i completely misread the original post, disregard this.

[ThaHero]

Call and see the turn.

Fold if unimproved.

This grunch challenge is wearing me out. I've never posted this much in my life lol.

[NateDog]

4 outs to the nut straight + about 1.5 to the 4th nut flush, getting 5.5:1 and not closing the action = fold.

[NateDog]

[ QUOTE ]
If the limpers are loose and passive as you say, I'm not fearing a check/raise from UTG, so this is an easy call. You have the odds alone to chase your gutshot - the backdoor flush is just icing on the cake.

I don't know about a raise, as I don't think you have enough equity here to trap MP1 and CO for 2 bets.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd need at least 8:1 and some pretty horrible players in the hand to chase an 11:1 gutshot.

[ltb]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd need at least 8:1 and some pretty horrible players in the hand to chase an 11:1 gutshot.

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah, I misread the 4.5 SB on the converter as 4.5 BB - edited the original, but it looks like you caught me beforehand.

[ThaHero]

Good point. Guess the correct play is to fold. Grunch kicks my ass again.

[hemstock]

What about implied odds?
He has 4 outs to the straight and 1.5 outs to the flush. So 5.5 outs and he is getting 6.5 to one. He needs pot odds of 7.3 to break even. With implied odds and all, why not call?

[detruncate]

I'd consider raising PF.

There's not much analysis here. It's almost purely mathematical. 4 outs to a gutshot + BD flush draw. One player left to act. Loose/passive opponents mean that you're going to be called to the river in at least 1 spot most of the time, and unlikely to face a flop raise. Pick up your calculator, sir.

You should see the flop for one single bet and fold on the turn UI. You have 4 outs for the GSD and 1,5 for BFD, but you will sometimes tie your straight = ~5 outs. Calculated more precisely your pot equity is about 18% or 1:4,5. There are 2,75BB in the pot now, and you can expect to have about ~7-8BB in the pot on showdown. Since you will probably pay 1,5BB to see the river (1:5), you can call, but it is close.

[OrianasDaad]

It's a pretty close call either way.

Calling, if it is a mistake at all, is only marginally worse than folding.

With two players to act behind me, I probably fold this.

result-oriented outcome:
I did call, caught a flush draw on the turn, and landed a Q on the river. I check-raised the field and won a 20BB pot.

[NobodysFreak]

Fold.