Crossposted from HUSH -- a turn decision for jason_t.

[Entity]

This hand is crossposted from HUSH. I think it's probably worthwhile for some of you to take a look at. Post here before you read the advice there -- I think this could serve as an interesting hand.

Playing 4-handed Party .5/1. We are all playing seriously and are playing our best. Entity is running bad from what it seems -- not showing down many good hands, in fact, not showing down much at all. Jason_t is running good and playing well, and has been playing quite aggressively (though usually with the cards to back up the play).

I'm posting this from jason_t's perspective and am keeping my cards unknown.

Preflop: I am UTG with 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="#CC3333">I raise</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Entity calls.

Flop: (4.50 SB) 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 5/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Entity checks, <font color="#CC3333">I bet</font>, Entity calls.

Turn: (3.25 BB) 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Entity bets</font>, I....

[/ QUOTE ]

[TylerK]

Your play makes zero sense, therefore I raise and fold to a 3-bet.

Edit: Read the HUSH thread and apparently people believe Entity is third-leveling this and could bluff 3-bet. I have no way of knowing this, so this is my play against an unknown.

[SackUp]

looks like he picked up a flush draw and doesn't give you credit for the A.

He would have c/r the A, so I think he picked up hearts or has a pp and wants you to fold your overs.

Raise and fold to a 3-bet

[SippinSoma]

So you know Entity is capable of bluff 3-betting, yet you raise the turn anyway?

[TylerK]

[ QUOTE ]
So you know Entity is capable of bluff 3-betting, yet you raise the turn anyway?

[/ QUOTE ]

No, the part before "edit:" is what I wrote before I read the HUSH thread.

[crunchy1]

I think the pot size makes this a pretty easy fold for jason here. Yes Entity may be bluffing. He also may be leading in the hopes that jason (who's been 'quite aggressive up to this point') will raise and allow Entity to 3-bet. We need to remember that they're each playing tough and Entity cold-called PF. For Entity to be bluffing here he would've had to have planned this from before the flop. IMO, jason doesn't have the showdown value with 77 on this board to justify putting in 2BBs in a 3BB pot to see a showdown.

[oreogod]

His turn bet could mean a couple things:

1.Damn good hand hoping to 3-bet it.
2.air hoping to bluff 3-bet
3. Mid pair leading which would be kind of a weird line, given the flop action
4.semi bluff bet a draw, which would be a little wierd against JT.

So now if we assign probabilites to each of the involved scenarios about...going about .80(#1-#2) + .20(#3-#4) = a good time to call IMO.

I could be wrong though, but unless Ent cares to enlighten me to a different scenario, I think J_ts best line is to call here.

[oreogod]

I dont think my assertation is quite on, but Im to lazy to change it now. Missed the pot size there.

[chief444]

I think raising this is the last option I'd choose. I think it's close between calling and folding. I'd lean towards fold, being careful not to make a habit of it. I think Rob's got either a really good hand or total bs. I think if Jason raises Rob will realize it's very possible he'll fold to a 3-bet. I think this is a case where if Jason just calls it shows as much strength if not more than a raise. Those are my first thoughts. However, I'll admit that I don't play much 3-4 handed because I probably fold a little too much in these spots. Rob could actually be value betting 66/44/K-high+flush draw or something here. Interesting hand.

[davet]

I think guestion #1 is why are you raising UTG with 77 ?

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
I think guestion #1 is why are you raising UTG with 77 ?

[/ QUOTE ]

It's 4-handed. I'd often raise this UTG in 8-handed or less situations. I'd sometimes raise it UTG 10-handed.

Rob

[RacersEdge]

I have no feel for SH games, so I have no idea what hand range Entity would be calling with.

[ArturiusX]

I call with the intention of raising the river.

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
I call with the intention of raising the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's probably the worst line I've heard yet. I'm not folding a better hand.

Rob

[cold_cash]

I fold because you scare me.

I think you could have a ton of hands in this spot and I'm losing to most of them. (Plus it looks like you're fishing for a raise.) Also, if I'm behind I'm way behind, and if I'm ahead there are probably plenty of cards that'll sink me.

If the pot were bigger or the board was 65A instead of 85A, it might be different. I'd let you have this one though.

[ArturiusX]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I call with the intention of raising the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's probably the worst line I've heard yet. I'm not folding a better hand.

Rob

[/ QUOTE ]

Exactly, trap you for more bets with a worse hand.

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I call with the intention of raising the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's probably the worst line I've heard yet. I'm not folding a better hand.

Rob

[/ QUOTE ]

Exactly, trap you for more bets with a worse hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

What worse hand am I calling? What better hands am I folding?

[ArturiusX]

True. I change mine to call/call.

[billyjex]

entity's play is weird. he could even have an A here, just playing it weird to throw jason_t off. 77 has showdown value and if entity's is bluffing, let him bluff. I call the turn and river.

finding folds 4-handed vs aggressive players is not something i do.

[jskills]

Easy fold. You're up against an Ace. It's over Johnny.

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
entity's play is weird.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hehe.

[toss]

I fold because I think he's betting to 3-bet and if he wants to 3-bet the turn that means he has a better hand. To us it looks like Entity may be donkbetting with a flushdraw.

[donger]

I fold this, then sit out and look for a better game.

My guess for hands: entity has at least an A and changes from checkraising the turn to donking it because of all the draws that the 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif creates.

[Jeff W]

Call turn and river.

[Evan]

Most of you are giving the monkey's hand way too much credit.

[DavidC]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd sometimes raise [88] UTG 10-handed.

Rob

[/ QUOTE ]

Total hijack here: Why? (i.e. what table conditions, I assume it would ahve to be tight and fairly weak or straight-forward post-flop.)

Edit: (LINK TO ORIGINAL POST IN HUSH) (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&amp;Number=3130078&amp;page=0&amp;view=colla psed&amp;sb=5&amp;o=14&amp;fpart=1)

(hoping this is far enough down to prevent "cheating" but still save time)

[W. Deranged]

I am posting this reply "blind," so to speak.

The key to figuring out Jason_t's correct play here is to try to decipher the possible motives between Entity's donk-bet. Since we know Entity is a good and thinking player, we can probably do some serious analysis without having to consider the "he's donk betting because he's actually a donk" possibility.

Here are some reasons why Entity might be donk-betting, in no particular order:

1. He is playing purely for value, and figures that a check-call/donk-bet line is more likely to get calls on big streets than either leading or check-raising the turn. (Hands that might consider this line: any hand containing an A; better stuff).

2. He has a more marginal hand (something like K /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 8 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif) which he figures has a high chance of being good. He does not want to raise of check-raise the flop for fear of getting raised or three-bet. Out of position Entity knows Jason might well make aggressive plays on the flop that his hand can't withstand. So he check-calls the flop with the intent of leading the turn for the purpose of hand protection and not letting the hand get out of control on the flop. The reason I find this to be somewhat unlikely is that Rob may not be able to feel he can confidently fold to a turn raise, because Jason will raise with so much here (including for a free showdown). (Hands that might attempt this line: 8s with a face-card, maybe pocket pairs like 66 or 99; an outside chance of a very weak A).

3. Entity is bluffing and figures that this slightly cryptic move is more likely to encourage Jason_t to fold a better hand than is check-raising the turn or something like that; the key here would be that Rob recognizes the pot size and figures that Jason_t will be folding often here because Rob has effectively hand-cuffed Jason and forced him to a decision into a pot that is not really worth fighting for. Note that I don't believe that Rob would lead here with a legitimate draw, because Jason is to likely to raise the turn with a mediocre (or strong hand), which I imagine would include any A (I would recommending raise the turn with most As here). Hence if Rob had hearts or clubs a check-call would be much better in order to avoid spewing with legit draws.

I've actually had a similar play run on me several times by a player in a local game (who is generally recognized as a poor player) and often have trouble with it, because I simply ccan't find a viable line of response in what is usually a small, heads-up pot. Almost every time I've found nothing else to do but fold.

I'll ultimately end up advocating a fold here because the play on Rob's part is just asking for an aggressive response from Jason. He likely is not making this bet with the intent to fold to a raise unless on a pure bluff, as Rob knows Jason will be raising a ton of stuff here.

Rob plays good. Jason finds this to be the point to concede.

[DeathDonkey]

4 handed I show down pairs against FPS LAGs. Call it down.

-DeathDonkey

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
4 handed I show down pairs against FPS LAGs. Call it down.

-DeathDonkey

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm a FPS LAG? I'm not sure if that's a compliment or an insult, coming from you. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Rob

[bottomset]

so what did Jason end up doing?
and what did you have Entity?

[newhizzle]

i think entity picked up a flush draw, but i probly just call down, cuz i dont want to be 3 bet

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
so what did Jason end up doing?
and what did you have Entity?

[/ QUOTE ]

Jason played this hand well. He called down. I had J/images/graemlins/club.gif7/images/graemlins/club.gif and was hoping he would raise for a free showdown. The reason I asked people to post here before reading there is Chris Daddy Cool's advice is so spot-on in this situation that I didn't want people just reading his advice and saying "oh, ok, I call," even though that's the correct play here.

There are situations in which Jason should be folding against me here but with the way past hands had played and our relative lack of playing against each other, I like calling down now.

Rob

[SteveL91]

If I'm actually allowing myself to think about a hand while it's in progress, I call down. There's very little chance that I'm going to fold something with showdown value on that board when the table is only 4-handed.

This is a line that can mean so many things, and it's all dependent on past hands (obviously). Personally, I'll use this line for a lot of reasons: 1) I have enough of a hand that I want to put the villain to the test, but I have no problem folding if played back at; 2) I'm trying to illicit a call down by making the other guy curious as to what the hell I could have; 3) I have a monster and I'm hoping to bet/3-bet. I'll also use this line just to change it up. I don't want to fall into the trap of constantly C/Ring hands OOP; I think mixing in some flop/turn leads can disguise your current and future hand(s).

[newhizzle]

if you had J /images/graemlins/club.gif7 /images/graemlins/club.gif, why were you hoping he would raise for a free showdown, he is charging you more on your draw, and if you miss he will probly call a bet on the river anyway

[jason_t]

[ QUOTE ]
if you had J /images/graemlins/club.gif7 /images/graemlins/club.gif, why were you hoping he would raise for a free showdown, he is charging you more on your draw, and if you miss he will probly call a bet on the river anyway

[/ QUOTE ]

So he could 3-bet the turn and fold my hand.

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
if you had J /images/graemlins/club.gif7 /images/graemlins/club.gif, why were you hoping he would raise for a free showdown

[/ QUOTE ]

Because I was planning on 3-betting.

The very term "raise for a free showdown" implies that he isn't comfortable putting any more money into the pot.

[chief444]

I'm assuming because Entity realizes that if Jason raises he's very often folding to a 3-bet here. Please correct me if I'm wrong.

[newhizzle]

so in that case if im up against entity ill keep in mind that if he 3-bets a turn im capping with ace high

[jason_t]

[ QUOTE ]
so in that case if im up against entity ill keep in mind that if he 3-bets a turn im capping with ace high

[/ QUOTE ]

It's not that simple; he's mixing it up a lot.

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
so in that case if im up against entity ill keep in mind that if he 3-bets a turn im capping with ace high

[/ QUOTE ]

Brilliant idea. I'd be more than happy to give you my Party name if you're really interested in that. If you're 4-betting anything besides AA, 88, or 55 on this turn you're going to be losing money in the longrun.

Rob

[newhizzle]

well i think that the call down is the right play, but if you know that he is capable of 3-bet-semi-bluffing then how can you fold a pair here(hypothetically if you did raise)

[cold_cash]

If you know he's capable of semi-bluff 3-betting, then you don't raise in the first place.

I think that's the whole point.

[pokerjunky]

I'd raise this on the turn and take a free showdown. Entity could be betting a flush draw or a pocket pair and is trying to feel you out. He may have something like 99 and his plan is to bet the turn and fold to a raise.

[chief444]

I'm quite certain that Rob would never bet/fold 99 here.

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd raise this on the turn and take a free showdown. Entity could be betting a flush draw or a pocket pair and is trying to feel you out. He may have something like 99 and his plan is to bet the turn and fold to a raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

There's no way in hell I have 99 here but if I did, I wouldn't be bet-folding it.

Rob

[pokerjunky]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'd raise this on the turn and take a free showdown. Entity could be betting a flush draw or a pocket pair and is trying to feel you out. He may have something like 99 and his plan is to bet the turn and fold to a raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

There's no way in hell I have 99 here but if I did, I wouldn't be bet-folding it.

Rob

[/ QUOTE ]

I here you. Maybe this wouldn't be a good line against a good, aggressive player who may bluff you off the best hand.