Various NFL Trends 1992-2004

Some NFL pointspread trends I've used in my system over the last several years:

W-L trends, all ATS

Team allows 30+ points in consecutive games -- 108-134 in next gm

Team scores 0 points -- 59-36 in next gm

Team starts season 0-4 straight up -- 300-246 for remainder of season

Team starts season 4-0 straight up -- 187-234 for remainder of season

5th game result in 4 out of 5 road stretch -- 59-76

Home dog of 7+ -- 120-93

Team registers ATS win and goes under the total in consecutive games -- 170-144 next gm result

Enjoy and use judiciously.

[MasterShakes]

I like all of them but the last one. The last one strikes me as something that just happens by chance.

Some of these records might have a lot to do with when the "official" ATS line was taken. Was it taken at open or at close or somewhere in between? If it's taken at close, I would tend to think that the bettors are overvaluing or undervaluing the team based on recent results. If it's taken at open, the bookmakers are doing the same.

Home dogs in the NFL are a long-standing trend. If you can get a home team at between PK and +2.5, the records are pretty good since 1983 on that. Home teams of PK to +2.5 are 278-237-3 since 1983. Not as good as the 7+ number, but still good.

What do you think the reasoning is behind the last one, if there is any?

I think a team that wins ATS (beats expectations) and stays under the total is one that shows in consecutive games that it's in control of its own game plan, as differentiated from whether it's in control of the game in general (since the team may be the underdog in one or both). Consequently, a team in control of its game plan is a team that is confident, or gaining confidence for its next matchup -- and this may not be noticed by the betting public at that time.

There are obvious exceptions -- the Colts and Chiefs '04 in control of their own game plans would likely go W ATS/Over rather than W/U, but I think those are exceptions. Still, it's not the strongest of trends at 170-144...but strong enough to take notice.

Also, it could be argued that 56-0 victories (Win and Over) are a sign of any team executing its game plan; however, I believe that type of victory breeds contentedness rather than confidence, and it certainly doesn't undervalue the team for its next matchup.

[MasterShakes]

Also wondering... is this a system or more of a collection of trends and ATS database analysis?

A majority of it, yes.

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Some of these records might have a lot to do with when the "official" ATS line was taken. Was it taken at open or at close or somewhere in between? If it's taken at close, I would tend to think that the bettors are overvaluing or undervaluing the team based on recent results.

[/ QUOTE ]

They were taken at close.

I read your last post incorrectly. It's a system that uses past ATS results and other trends to determine the probability that a team has of covering a pointspread, going under or over a total, winning the game outright, and/or being in a favorable position for a tease bet. It's this probability that is then used to determine the amount wagered.

[MasterShakes]

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I read your last post incorrectly. It's a system that uses past ATS results and other trends to determine the probability that a team has of covering a pointspread, going under or over a total, winning the game outright, and/or being in a favorable position for a tease bet. It's this probability that is then used to determine the amount wagered.

[/ QUOTE ]

So let's see this thing publicly.... anybody in the market for this sort of thing on eBay isn't reading this site anyway.

It's a spreadsheet. I'm willing to post my picks, with units, here during the season. We can talk about strategy or anything else, but I've never really divulged the system to anyone and it's not easy to explain, even in person.

You can check out some of my past picks on www.bigguy.com (http://www.bigguy.com) under player simulation name "sygamel1". I'm taking a little 4 day vacation and will check back on the board next Wednesday.

Scott

[youtalkfunny]

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...it's not easy to explain, even in person.


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You're underestimating the intellect of the 2+2 crowd. These are the sharpest posters on the net.

I booked sports in Vegas and off-shore for 10 years. I've got a lot of posts at 2+2, but I haven't contributed much to the sports-betting forum, as I've never been any good at picking games (making the line is a lot easier than beating the line), and no longer spend most of my time watching/thinking about sports.

Reading your post above, I agree with Shakes that the trends you're playing MAKE SENSE. You can see the cause/effect in each one--even if that last one needed a little explaining.

So many times, I see people betting on non-sense trends such as, "The Raiders are 16-2 ATS vs NFC North teams on turf on Monday night", etc. It was refreshing to see your trends.

I'm looking forward to your contributions to this forum.

How many more trends like that are you sitting on?

[MasterShakes]

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How many more trends like that are you sitting on?

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Seriously... I'd love to see more like these.

[tech]

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I'd love to see more like these.

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Dan Gordon's book has a bunch of these if you are looking for more. So do other other NFL handicapping books. The problem with trends/angles in general is that markets adjust to them. For example, some of the MNF angles that used to be golden are no longer as profitable because they became so widely known. IMO, the underlying principles behind "trends" like these are the important thing, not the trend itself.

[craig r]

I am too lazy to look, but isn't fading the SB winner the first week suppossed to yield a profit? But, I think over the last few years this has failed. I could be wrong though.

craig

p.s. If you lost last year betting this angle you are an idiot:). Nobody should have lost last year. In fact, most people should have won both sides.

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Quote:
...it's not easy to explain, even in person.

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You're underestimating the intellect of the 2+2 crowd. These are the sharpest posters on the net.

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually, I think it's more an indication of my inability to explain the system comprehensively.

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How many more trends like that are you sitting on?

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Those are some of my best. I'm not sure I would've given them outright if Master Shakes hadn't given me the dressing down in the other thread. lol

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The problem with trends/angles in general is that markets adjust to them.

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Very true. The MNF trends are worthless, I don't use or attempt to find any of them.

[YoureToast]

[ QUOTE ]
Some NFL pointspread trends I've used in my system over the last several years:

W-L trends, all ATS

Team allows 30+ points in consecutive games -- 108-134 in next gm

Team scores 0 points -- 59-36 in next gm

Team starts season 0-4 straight up -- 300-246 for remainder of season

Team starts season 4-0 straight up -- 187-234 for remainder of season

5th game result in 4 out of 5 road stretch -- 59-76

Home dog of 7+ -- 120-93

Team registers ATS win and goes under the total in consecutive games -- 170-144 next gm result

Enjoy and use judiciously.

[/ QUOTE ]

Let me just say that I too am new to this forum; although not new to the 2+2 forums generally. I hope to be posting here throughout the year as well, and looking for trends similar to yours. Welcome and keep up the good work.

Does anyone know of a site that shows the spreads for games in past NFL seasons?

[tech]

Covers.com, or you can buy a historical NFL database.

tyvm

[craig r]

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Covers.com, or you can buy a historical NFL database.

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Where can I get past spreads at from, let say, last year? Get the FAQ up!!!!!!!!!!!! /images/graemlins/smile.gif

craig

[tech]

LOL. Would have been up already if I didn't also have a real job. One more year ... one more year ... one more year ... at least that's what I keep telling myself.

[craig r]

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LOL. Would have been up already if I didn't also have a real job. One more year ... one more year ... one more year ... at least that's what I keep telling myself.

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You have a real job? I thought Mason paid you a pretty good chunk of money to moderate this forum. I guess not. Well, I am going to start a moderators union. I think I can sum up your demands fairly easily:

1)

yeah, that ought to do it.

craig

[plus_man]

Also check out sportsbettingstats.com

[gjm112]

I am a little bit wary of people varying there bet sizes on games. ANy game where you think you have a positive expecation over teh long haul you, you should bet as hard as you can. Otherwise only the big bets matter. If you're small bets are winning 55 percent of teh time and your big bets are winning 60 percent of the time why not bet everything at max bet size. They are still profitable. (The only argument for adjsutin gbet size is to reduce variance on long undersog bets, but if thats a concern of yours you aren't managing money the best that you could.)

Thoughts on this?

I agree to an extent, except it's possible for skewed results in any one season in which the 55% games perform better than the 60% games. If the same parameters are used to determine these probabilities, I find it necessary to bet all such games in which the parameters show value in a matchup in order to take full advantage of the parameter trends over a full season. I suppose I could understand a system in which you play 65 or 70% games extremely hard and not play any others, but like you said variances have the potential to be quite large.

I'm curious, sygamel, how many trends do you currently use in your system?

About 30 plus pointspread and money line pricing matrices.