PF decision with KK88ds

[jhall23]

Here's one that got me thinking about a possible scenario like Cezar's post from earlier today here before I read it.

Cezar's post (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Number=3124825&page=0&view=colla psed&sb=5&o=14&fpart=1)

At the time I wasn't sure how best to proceed with the hand. Certainly I wanted to call if I could see the flop against the one likely AA, but I wasn't sure whether I should be prepared for a 3 way all-in coup.


Party Poker Pot-Limit Omaha High, $0.25 BB (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

UTG ($35.05)
UTG+1 ($25.48)
UTG+2 ($18.65)
MP1 ($31.87)
Hero ($30.85)
MP3 ($24.75)
CO ($15.30)
Button ($35.82)
SB ($22.68)
BB ($24.40)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif, K/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 raises to $0.85</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises to $2.9</font>, Hero ....

Pretty sure a re-raise here is no good cause I really don't want to get it heads up all-in with just the person that is likely to have AAxx. Original raiser here was loose enough with raises that he wasn'e marked with AAxx.

Folding here would seem really weak cause if I get an all in coup with at least 4 players then my equity would be really great so I am not too worried about those left to act and I have a good AAxx busting hand.

So before I call I am trying to figure what how to proceed with this hand when:

1) Original raiser re-raises it and other player folds

Do I then fold this?

2) Original raiser re-raises and other player pushes.

Will be getting at least 2:1, so is that worth a 3 way coup?

Then how about if it we were to see a flop 3 handed. Obviously with an A on the flop I can fold and feel pretty good. How about when I get one of my flush draws, but no set and it goes check, pot bet? I've got possibly 13 outs to set up or flush, but don't know if I'm drawing to the second best flush. Safe to fold here?

How about when I get the mid/bottom set with the 8's on either a two flush (not my suit) or rainbow flop and it goes check/pot bet? Here I'm probably good against PF re-raiser but I have the original raiser there possibly waiting to check/raise. Should I push here even with UTG+1 left to act?


This hand got me thinking about a lot of things and I'd like to hear what others think.

[FeliciaLee]

Right before the monsoon came and wiped out my power, I went to Two Dimes to plug in some hands for you.

Just as I was copying the results, boom, MONSOON! Run for cover. The electric blinked. Oh, well, here you go:

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1139175
pokenum -mc 500000 -o ah ad qh jd - as qs jc tc - kh kd 8h 8d
Omaha Hi: 500000 sampled boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ad Jd Ah Qh 228117 45.62 247036 49.41 24847 4.97 0.481
As Qs Jc Tc 124472 24.89 350681 70.14 24847 4.97 0.274
Kd 8d Kh 8h 122564 24.51 377436 75.49 0 0.00 0.245


Obviously I gave you a pretty bad scenario. But you have to put at least one of the guys on a strong AA hand, right?

If you aren't very confident with this hand (I wouldn't be, and I'm a beginner), then maybe it's better to fold and pick your opportunities later. I know, the 2k players would say I'm too tight, too passive, too scared, but if I don't know where to proceed with this hand after the flop, yet have so much invested pre-flop, perhaps it's better not to play it at all, espcially in the wake of raises and reraises from EP players.

Just a newbie opinion.

Felicia /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[jhall23]

[ QUOTE ]


Obviously I gave you a pretty bad scenario. But you have to put at least one of the guys on a strong AA hand, right?



[/ QUOTE ]

All say. You done killed both my flush draws /images/graemlins/tongue.gif.

But yeah this is one of the worst spots I could be in if both had AAxx. I did a bunch of two dimes analysis on this myself as well seeing what happens when both flushes are drawing dead, only one is and when both are live. Also mixed in some other hands for UTG+1 as well. From what I found I was never much worse then what you have there and sometimes was in the low 30% range.

In the actual hand it wasn't very exciting and I didn't get my hand to showdown, but I was thinking about these things while I contemplated calling/folding PF in case the action got crazy pre-flop.

[BluffTHIS!]

Even the best AAxx cannot be much more than a 2-1 favorite over virtually any other hand in omaha headsup. You have an extremely strong hand with two pairs that can hit sets and two flush draws. Obviously you shouldn't reraise suspected aces but you should call with 2-1 odds on your money and then go from there. When you hit your set, especially if there are any draws present, lots of players cannot lay down AA and you will double off them. Unless I had to put more than 1/3 of my stack in preflop, and maybe not even then, I am going to see a flop with that hand every time. If all you hit is a flush draw, and you are only getting 2-1 odds on the flop, then you probably should fold unless against a known lag who reraises with lots of hands. Also, if one of those situations, that sometimes occurs at the lower plo limits, where it looks like 3+ other players beside yourself are going to go allin preflop with stacks that at least equal yours, then I might even be willing to do so myself with this hand so as to see all 5 board cards, though I would prefer to do so only with the second pair being closer to the K so as to also have some straight possibilities.