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View Full Version : $22: Bubble: one of those "pass up +CEV" spots?

spentrent
08-12-2005, 03:16 PM
Seat 1: PlayerA ( $2930 )
Seat 4: PlayerB ( $3290 )
Seat 5: Hero ( $1180 )
Seat 10: PlayerC ( $600 )

Blinds(100/200)

** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ 2s As ]
PlayerA folds.
PlayerB folds.
Hero ?


PlayerC has 400 after posting, thus committed to this pot.

Is a ~57% edge (A2 vs. random) worth making a stand here?

If PlayerC isn't pot committed this is an easy push for me. However, a loss here puts my head on the chopping block

Discuss.
schwza
08-12-2005, 03:30 PM
i think this is a pretty easy push. for one, villain may fold. i think he may even fold correctly. if you have 34o there, you're getting 2:1 and you're almost exactly 2:1 against a random hand. thus you're -chipEV to call, so presumably you're also -$EV. whether or not a fold could be correct is irrelevant though, because the fact is that he may fold.

even if he does call any 2, it's a push. you're a small favorite to make the money right now, and you have some chance to come back if you lose. if you fold, it's 1080 v 700, which is pretty close.
Matt R.
08-12-2005, 03:42 PM
I think you have to push here. Most of your equity is coming from outlasting the short stack since you're a distant 3rd in chips. If you give him the blinds, you're losing a lot of your prize pool equity. A2s is way too strong to give him the blinds for free.
kevkev60614
08-12-2005, 03:48 PM
Push it real good.
eastbay
08-12-2005, 04:04 PM
[ QUOTE ]
Seat 1: PlayerA ( $2930 )
Seat 4: PlayerB ( $3290 )
Seat 5: Hero ( $1180 )
Seat 10: PlayerC ( $600 )

Blinds(100/200)

** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ 2s As ]
PlayerA folds.
PlayerB folds.
Hero ?


PlayerC has 400 after posting, thus committed to this pot.

Is a ~57% edge (A2 vs. random) worth making a stand here?

If PlayerC isn't pot committed this is an easy push for me. However, a loss here puts my head on the chopping block

Discuss.

[/ QUOTE ]

Easy push. If you fold this hand, you've just given small stack 300 chips for a total of 900, you're down to 1080, and he's back in the game.

Quantitatively, it looks like this:

http://sitngo-analyzer.com/poker/A2s.PNG

If BB wants to start getting selective about calling, that only helps you:

http://sitngo-analyzer.com/poker/A2s-2.PNG

eastbay