Isolation 3 bet goes awry and I'm left out of position

[Evan]

MP is a nut and the reason I'm at the table. Stats are 72/23/2
Button has decent looking stats but I've seen him get out of line more than once, I'm sure you all know the type. Basically I think he is attempting to play well but does a very poor job of it. Numbers are 30/20/3.1.

I have a decent number of hands on both players.

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, Button calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP caps</font>, Hero calls, Button calls.

Flop: (13.50 SB) 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif, T/images/graemlins/spade.gif, T/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">MP bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, Button calls, MP calls $3 (All-In).

Turn: (9.40 BB) 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players, 1 all-in)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, Button calls.

River: (11.40 BB) J/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players, 1 all-in)</font>
Hero /images/graemlins/confused.gif


What hands do you put button on? Given your answer to that, what is the best river action?

[mrh86]

I think that I'd have folded pf, but it seems that the button has a high pair or two face cards. The river might have paired given him top pair, he might have trip 10s, or maybe he has QQ-AA. I think the river is a check and call situation.

[Sporky]

i'd put button on something like 77-99 or something like AQh AJh (edit AQo/AKo too) slight chance at JJ? i would think you have to bet this to try and fold out 77-99 and fold to a raise? interesting hand, i'd bet it but i don't know if my reasoning is all that great. interested to hear what others say.

[oreogod]

[ QUOTE ]
I think that I'd have folded pf, but it seems that the button has a high pair or two face cards. The river might have paired given him top pair, he might have trip 10s, or maybe he has QQ-AA. I think the river is a check and call situation.

[/ QUOTE ]

Its always good to get a good laugh in, in the mornings. I thank you.

[Victor]

check fold due to the protected pot.

or bet so that he can pay off with a-high.

[mrh86]

I don't think I'll take offense from a fat guy named oreogod, but I'd like to know what he thinks of this hand.

[fyodor]

Given his preflop 3bet cold call, if he has the flush it is likely with AKs or AQs. If that's the case you think he would have 3 bet the flop going for the free card if he misses on the turn.

AA-JJ also likely would have raised somewhere along the line.

I think his most probable holding is a mid pp 77-99. He's not folding for one more bet. He's not raising. He might check behind.

Given the size of the pot check folding seems out of the question.

Options are check call or bet fold to a raise. I check and hope he does too.

[Catt]

Tough.

Subject to the paragrapgh below, I think he most likely has a PP or a FD, and among the ranges for the PPs I guess no higher than 99. If he is incapable of CCing pre-flop with 22 or 33, then you've got a ck-fold on your hands, almost no matter how big the pot is. If he is capable of calling any PP pre-flop, then I'd favor a ck-call more than a bet-fold or bet-call.

A big question I would have is how observant is Button? Is he aware that (1) MP is a nut (and perhaps is sitting at the table for the same reason)?; and (2) has he seen you isolating the nut quite a bit? If the answers to these questions can reasonably be "yeah, probably" then his range opens way up and there's no way you can fold and it might swing to a bet-call for me -- if he's observant as above and can see that MP is going to go all in on the flop, then I think it more likely this guy could be CCing pre-flop and calling down with a big A. This guy has gotten out of line before, and he's aggro, and I don't think I could fold to a river raise here if he's capable of doing so with AQ / AK. Meh; maybe this still makes it ck-call.

[PokerBob]

ugh. i dunno. will he call with AK or bet with it? Either way I think you have to show down. ick.

[PokerBob]

[ QUOTE ]
I think that I'd have folded pf

[/ QUOTE ]

no. repeat. no.

[ep510]

AA-JJ seem out of the question since villian would cap those. 99-77 are questionable - would villian cold-call 3 bets here? Even if he does call 3 cold pf, I don't likely see him playing his mid pocket pair this passively with a 3.1 AF (altho it's possible). AQ and KQ of hearts, therefore, seem the most likely hands that he would come in preflop with 3 cold without capping. His line of play seems more in line with a flush draw than a mid pocket pair (altho this is still player dependent).

Given the range of hands that villian can have, I don't see how you can be ahead here (unless villian will call 3 cold with 33 or 22 and call down). Will villian fold his mid pocket pair to a bet on the river? I doubt it. Thus, I think a check-fold is in order.

Of course, at the table, I'd just check-call without thinking much about it.

[oreogod]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think I'll take offense from a fat guy named oreogod, but I'd like to know what he thinks of this hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Oui...Im always having to defend my honor from the internet cliches Im always the victim of when the reality is actually quite the opposite. (as in, Im not fat, Im not old...Im 24, I dont date fugly women, etc.)

Anyway, your thinking is way to weak tight that i found it laugable. Sorry, but true. Anyway, to prevent this from getting out of hand, PM me so I can ignore you there.

God forbid anyone ever express confidence in themselves over the internet without having a clan of geeks go Lord of the Flies on you (this is aimed at the general forumthink found on the net).