PLO8 $2k. Turn check-raise w/ draws.

[Wintermute]

P3 = PFR 90% this session, LAG post-flop.

$2000 PL Omaha Hi/Lo
Table Table 54692 (No DP) (Real Money)
Seat 5 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 7: Hero ( $1919 )
Seat 10: P1 ( $2048 )
Seat 3: P2 ( $890 )
Seat 5: P3 ( $1038 )
Hero posts small blind [$10].
P1 posts big blind [$20].

** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ Th Qh 3h Ac ]

P2 calls [$20].
P3 raises [$55].
Hero calls [$45].
P1 calls [$35].
P2 calls [$35].

** Dealing Flop ** [ 6h, Js, 4c ]

Hero checks.
P1 checks.
P2 checks.
P3 checks.

** Dealing Turn ** [ Kh ]

Hero checks.
P1 checks.
P2 bets [$218].
P3 calls [$218].
Hero raises [$1090]. <--- like it or no?

[emptyshell]

Looks like you have about 40% of the deck to (probably) scoop (17, assuming you can't handle the board pairing). Obviously, you aren't in good shape if the A-high flush draw is out. You have as few as 3 outs for low, but might have as many as 16. I don't think you can expect all three opponents to fold. So, I'm thinking the raise is either 60/40 +EV, 43/57 -EV, or (if the A-high draw is out) more significantly -EV. My analysis is probably a little pessimistic if these players sometimes get out of line. Also, of course, if you feel it is likely you'll get more than one caller, it is a good move.

If you agree with me that you are going to showdown after this raise, then I think a flat call would normally be better. It gives you better pot odds and your opponents will not be allin after you hit, thus giving them the opportunity to make the big mistake of calling (or betting into) you when you hold the nuts. The only advantages I can see of the raise is that (1) you don't have to make the tricky decision of whether to call with second nut low and (2) you might get P3 to put all his money in with a low draw that doesn't hit.

[Wintermute]

My goal is to isolate the LAG. I very likely have a better low draw than him, so any card that doesn't pair the board at least returns me my money.

The key is whether the other two will fold. I'm hoping that by using the lag as protection, they'll have more incentive to muck naked nut low draw or A-high flush?

[Jorge10]

You might also say that he could maybe pick it up right then and there. I think that is the reason behind raising like this. Just hoping no one calls. The way the betting went I like the chances of that happening. I mean everyone checked the flop, they obviously cant have much.

I think P3 just has a naked A/A by the way no low, the reason is that he raised pot preflop, but when two low cards came he was last to act and checked? This is not something you do when you have a monster low hand, so my guess is he has a naked A/A. He might get stubborn and call since he called on the turn based on that. Also P2 could have anything you cant really get much of a read based on how he played it. Wouldnt shock me if he had some sort of big set.

Based on the betting I like the reraise because you have a monster hand both ways that is in good shape against even a set, in this case you are even hoping P2 has a set because your draw is so big you are ahead of even top set, I like the reraise.

[Wintermute]

[ QUOTE ]
I think P3 just has a naked A/A by the way no low

[/ QUOTE ]

Never in hell does this guy check the flop w/ AA.

[Jorge10]

[ QUOTE ]
Never in hell does this guy check the flop w/ AA.

[/ QUOTE ]

Dont know didnt put any reads on, just assumed common sense, if I got A/A/10/J, and the flop comes 4/5/K, its kind of insane to shove. I dont know though, I wasnt there, didnt know how they played. Also does he suck? or what I mean if I had a big low hand I would have bet when last to act on that flop. I dont get why he would check, thats why I assumed all big cards.

[Wintermute]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Never in hell does this guy check the flop w/ AA.

[/ QUOTE ]

Dont know didnt put any reads on, just assumed common sense, if I got A/A/10/J, and the flop comes 4/5/K, its kind of insane to shove. I dont know though, I wasnt there, didnt know how they played. Also does he suck? or what I mean if I had a big low hand I would have bet when last to act on that flop. I dont get why he would check, thats why I assumed all big cards.

[/ QUOTE ]

At the top of the original post, I wrote "P3 = PFR 90% this session, LAG post-flop" but it was easy to overlook. I agree that he doesn't have strong low possibilities, we can definitely rule out any A2 based on this action. In fact, we can practically rule out any strength whatsoever.

Also, FWIW P3 is not a very strong player, but LAGs it up enough to occasionally build up a huge stack. He worked a $500 stack up to $8k on this occasion.

[emptyshell]

Do you have reason to believe P2 would bet into a crowd of players with a draw (nut low and/or nut flush) and then fold to a raise? It would not be usual behavior in my experience. He's getting better odds on the call than the bet out. If P1 has one of these draws, though, it very well could work on him.

You are still, in any case, missing out on the opportunity to extract a bet from the LAG when he is drawing 100% dead after you hit the river. If you count your winnings by summing up EVs, this might be a significant missed opportunity.

I don't think it's a horrible raise, but I think I still prefer a call.

[gergery]

I like it. You have to jam any river card tho.

I can’t see P3 having anything but a weak drawish hand here (maybe middle pair, maybe gutshot). LAGs like to raise with big hands cause they get paid off and bluffs cause the choice is easy. But they slow down on weakish-draws.

I’d be a little worried about P2. If he hit, he likely checks the flop assuming P3 will bet. But after seeing hero and P1 check both flop and turn he can be raising on weaker values.

[Wintermute]

[ QUOTE ]
Do you have reason to believe P2 would bet into a crowd of players with a draw (nut low and/or nut flush) and then fold to a raise? It would not be usual behavior in my experience. He's getting better odds on the call than the bet out.

[/ QUOTE ]

Players frequently (a) semibluff in this spot or (b) bet with something weak or nothing at all to pick up the pot. Either might fold to a big raise. If he does call, I'd expect the LAG to call every time, though, so my odds would be just as good, just w/ higher variance. (I believe the loss in implied odds in that case is made up for by the fact that I'm automatically paid off--twice--when I hit.)

[ QUOTE ]
You are still, in any case, missing out on the opportunity to extract a bet from the LAG when he is drawing 100% dead after you hit the river. If you count your winnings by summing up EVs, this might be a significant missed opportunity.

I don't think it's a horrible raise, but I think I still prefer a call.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's true--however, he may not call on the river if my draw hits.

I suck at this EV calculation sh!t, but let me take a stab at it. Should be amusing for everyone else...

First, lets assume it gets heads up on the turn, me and LAG, and say 50% of the deck gives me a scoop, and 25% of the deck gives me chop (low) and 25% of the deck gives him the pot.

The pot is $800, if I just call, which I am definitely at least going to do, so let's put that in there.

If I just call, and then hit on the river, I win that $800 + x% of the ensuing $800 river bet where x is the percentage of times he'll look me up or bet into me or whatever.

So:

EV w/ raise = .5 * $1600 + .25 * $400 + .25 * -$800 = $800 +$100 - $200 = $700.

EV w/ call = .5 * ($800 + x%*$800) + .25 * ($400) + .25 * (0) = $500 + x%*$400.

I very likely fcuked this up. If I did, it would be nice if someone shows me how to do it right with this example.

But if I didn't, then to match the EV of the turn raise scenario, he'd have to pay me off at least half the time I hit.

With this guy, that sounds just about right, so I would say this one is a deadlock. One thing I did leave out here is the equity I get in the times he folds the turn to my raise, which I suppose might skew things towards a raise. Of course, since this was all handwaving w/ deciding on the %'s, no matter what it's probably going to end up being an either/or situation.



Anyway, they all folded.