PLO8 Flop/turn fold equity con't from Ribbo's post.

[Wintermute]

In Ribbo's post (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Number=3097195&page=1&view=colla psed&sb=5&o=&fpart=1) a day ago, we got into a discussion of how to play top two pair/set on flop & turn in heads up action. We got into fold equity and so forth; I advocated playing a weakish high fast on the flop, waiting a card with a very strong high like top set and then getting active on the turn. But there was a question of whether people are more likely to fold on the flop or turn. Hell, just go read the thread.

Anyway, here's an example of how you can get an idiot to chase on the turn w/ a chk-raise on a safe card after he's already put money in on the flop:

$2000 PL Omaha Hi/Lo
Table Table 52021 (Real Money)
Seat 1 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 1: Folder2 ( $2578.50 )
Seat 2: Hero ( $2647 )
Seat 3: Folder ( $2043.50 )
Seat 10: Sucker ( $3770.50 )
Hero posts small blind [$10].
Folder posts big blind [$20].

** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ Qd Kc 7c Kh ]

Sucker calls [$20].
Folder2 folds.
Hero calls [$10].
Folder checks.

** Dealing Flop ** [ 5c, 7d, Ks ]

Hero checks.
Folder checks.
Sucker bets [$45].
Hero calls [$45].
Folder folds.

** Dealing Turn ** [ 7s ]

Hero checks.
Sucker bets [$148].
Hero raises [$592].
Sucker calls [$444].

** Dealing River ** [ 5s ]

Hero bets [$1332].
Sucker calls [$1332].
Hero shows [ Qd, Kc, 7c, Kh ] a full house, Kings full of sevens.
Sucker doesn't show [ 4c, Js, 2s, 6h ] a flush, king high.
Hero wins $3996 from the main pot with a full house, Kings full of
sevens.
There was no qualifying low hand.


Obviously, this is a bad player. But I contend he's more likely to fold to a flop check-raise than a turn check-raise.

[sy_or_bust]

I like how it worked out, but have a few questions.

It looks like you resign yourself to (usually) not earning much those times when Villain checks the turn, assuming you pot the river and are never raised by a worse hand and called by a majority of splitting hands.

If you simply raise the flop and pot the turn, you lose do lose fold equity from low draws, but you don't risk the above "disaster" scenario. Maybe you had a read that Villain would fire a second pot barrel every time, which is great, but in most situations I think a turn check is too much to risk.

[emptyshell]

Proof by example. It's one of my favorite mathematical proof techniques.

You should also try: Proof by stubborness and Proof by saying so. The last one is particularly handy since it doesn't take as long to complete.

[Wintermute]

[ QUOTE ]
I like how it worked out, but have a few questions.

It looks like you resign yourself to (usually) not earning much those times when Villain checks the turn, assuming you pot the river and are never raised by a worse hand and called by a majority of splitting hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes I should've mentioned the turn check was player-dependent. Against an average player I'd consider betting out on the turn. Still, checking may not be a disaster since it's easy for the positional player to assume I am on a low draw that's missing. The last thought crossing their mind at this point is that they're drawing dead for high, which is why the play is so strong against an aggressive opponent.

[ QUOTE ]
If you simply raise the flop and pot the turn, you lose do lose fold equity from low draws, but you don't risk the above "disaster" scenario.

[/ QUOTE ]

The disaster of the turn checking through would be bad, but so would be the disaster of raising the flop, then having any low card come on the turn, and being faced with the prospect of either folding top set at that point or risking a freeroll for your opponent.

[Wintermute]

[ QUOTE ]

Proof by example. It's one of my favorite mathematical proof techniques.

You should also try: Proof by stubborness and Proof by saying so. The last one is particularly handy since it doesn't take as long to complete.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree that a single example or even several do not offer conclusive proof, but when it's impossible to prove either side of a debate by reasonable means (as it is in this case) I prefer examples to raw opinion. I actually posted another example of this type of play a while back here (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Board=omaha8&Number=2701456&Foru m=,,,,,,,,,,,,f30,,,,,,,,,,,,&Words=&Searchpage=12 &Limit=25&Main=2701456&Search=true&where=bodysub&N ame=32129&daterange=1&newerval=2&newertype=m&older val=&oldertype=&bodyprev=#Post2701456). Good, tight aggressive players will make big calls to strong turn moves on occasions that they would've surely folded to aggression on the flop.

By the way, I have been duped by this play several times and ended up putting in big money on the turn because I couldn't convince myself that my opponent had a hand so strong I was drawing dead or very slim to half/all of the pot... it's very difficult to avoid, especially against aggressive opponents who are capable of big bluffs. I'd never seen this play until I moved up to the highest limit games--once you rack up several thousand hands at $1k/2k, and will have likely been on the receiving end of this play, it is possible that you may have a change in opinion.

On the other hand, if you'd prefer to just cast blind skepticism and condescneding remarks, nobody can stop you.

[emptyshell]

Yeah, sarcasm and irony are a big part of how I communicate, no condenscension intended.

I ran a quick query against an old PT database to get an idea of whether folding to a raise (after betting out) on the flop or turn is more common. The database contains about 100k hands total across all levels and was created before the $2k tables. My harddrive crashed recently so I don't have anything newer.


*************** PL $25 Hi/Lo ***************
FlopFoldToRaise: 360/2573 -> 13%
TurnFoldToRaise: 308/2077 -> 14%

*************** PL $50 Hi/Lo ***************
FlopFoldToRaise: 320/1781 -> 17%
TurnFoldToRaise: 251/1318 -> 19%

*************** PL $100 Hi/Lo ***************
FlopFoldToRaise: 984/4796 -> 20%
TurnFoldToRaise: 731/3683 -> 19%

*************** PL $200 Hi/Lo ***************
FlopFoldToRaise: 489/2319 -> 21%
TurnFoldToRaise: 359/1589 -> 22%

*************** PL $400 Hi/Lo ***************
FlopFoldToRaise: 127/599 -> 21%
TurnFoldToRaise: 98/399 -> 24%

*************** PL $600 Hi/Lo ***************
FlopFoldToRaise: 37/178 -> 20%
TurnFoldToRaise: 23/101 -> 22%

*************** PL $1000 Hi/Lo ***************
FlopFoldToRaise: 410/1893 -> 21%
TurnFoldToRaise: 268/1129 -> 23%

Obviously, it's all very situation- and person-dependent, but this data suggests it's about equally likely in general for a player to fold on the flop or turn.

[Wintermute]

[ QUOTE ]
Obviously, it's all very situation- and person-dependent, but this data suggests it's about equally likely in general for a player to fold on the flop or turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

In that case, all the more reason to keep arguing.

You, sir, are an ass!

[Wintermute]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Obviously, it's all very situation- and person-dependent, but this data suggests it's about equally likely in general for a player to fold on the flop or turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

In that case, all the more reason to keep arguing.

You, sir, are an ass!

[/ QUOTE ]

This guy just fodlded to my turn bet, ergo, I am correct:

$400 PL Omaha Hi/Lo - Friday, August 12, 22:43:13 EDT 2005
Table Table 54689 (No DP) (Real Money)
Seat 1 is the button
Total number of players : 7
Seat 1: Ralph3082 ( $368.74 )
Seat 4: beat_kids ( $363.10 )
Seat 6: tynofu ( $417.60 )
Seat 8: woodfordman ( $400 )
Seat 9: Hero ( $670.70 )
Seat 10: Force98 ( $392.10 )
Seat 2: Lled65 ( $396 )
Lled65 posts small blind [$2].
beat_kids posts big blind [$4].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ Ah 2d 6c 7d ]
tynofu folds.
woodfordman folds.
Hero calls [$4].
Force98 folds.
Ralph3082 folds.
Lled65 calls [$2].
beat_kids raises [$4].
Hero calls [$4].
Lled65 calls [$4].
** Dealing Flop ** [ Kh, 3c, 4d ]
Lled65 checks.
beat_kids checks.
Hero bets [$22.80].
Lled65 calls [$22.80].
beat_kids folds.
** Dealing Turn ** [ Qh ]
Lled65 checks.
Hero bets [$66.60].
Lled65 folds.
Hero does not show cards.
Hero wins $133.20

[emptyshell]

I say "good day" to you, sir.

[Wintermute]

I play you HEAD up! ANY time.

[Mendacious]

[qoute]I play you HEAD up! ANY time.

[/ QUOTE ]

I had a feeling you were "challenge people to heads-up guy"

On that note, I had some know it all spewing crap about my play challenge me to $200 heads-up holdem yesterday. As if that would prove something. I told him make it $1000 PLO8 only to find out you can't create private tables over $200 on Party-- not that he would have accepted.

[GivnHandOuts]

i got a feeling you are 'missing inside joke guy',
just the same as i am 'make comment and leave guy'.

and for the record-
both are better then 'likes to fight over bad beat' anyday.
and i always find myself more willing to fold pre-flop then turn

[Wintermute]

Mendacious, I play you HEAD up ANY time too.

(btw, until recently party didn't allow you to set up any PL/NL priv games--thanks for tipping me off on that, hopefully the stakes will eventually be raised too)

[mxyzptlk]

I am worried that a thread ender like "I play you HEAD up, ANY time" or "GET BACK IN YOUR HOLE" or random porn images will nullify anything constructive I have to say, but from my understanding, check-calling the flop with top set and then putting serious money in on the turn when a safe card hits is a fairly standard way to play it when:

1) there are two low cards on the board
2) there is a two flush on the board
3) the board is highly coordinated

I play this way against idiots and good players. you disguise your hand against good players and the idiots will still chase their draw for one card. a CR on the flop just screams "set" to anyone who isn't a dumbass.

QUEENS AND FOURS! EOM.

[Ribbo]

I think you will find people are morons, EVEN WHEN YOU TELL THEM WHAT YOU HAVE. But hey, no pair is a big hand, hard to fold. Only assume 1 thing at the tables, your opponents are idiots.

***** Hand History for Game 2536249183 *****
$100 PL Omaha Hi/Lo - Sunday, August 14, 20:59:57 EDT 2005
Table Table 36963 (Real Money)
Seat 8 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 1: Ribbo ( $270.90 )
Seat 2: nycpokerguy9 ( $70.19 )
Seat 3: borderhopper ( $195.84 )
Seat 4: stoogeone ( $98.95 )
Seat 5: myranger ( $125.85 )
Seat 6: KeyLargo1948 ( $93.20 )
Seat 8: cookguay ( $44 )
Seat 9: VernonLyman ( $100.55 )
Seat 10: chaz84 ( $92.85 )
Seat 7: jiroopark ( $100 )
VernonLyman posts small blind [$0.50].
Ribbo posts big blind [$1].
jiroopark posts big blind [$1].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Ribbo [ 4h Ks Kh Qs ]
nycpokerguy9 folds.
borderhopper folds.
stoogeone raises [$2].
myranger folds.
KeyLargo1948 folds.
jiroopark calls [$1].
cookguay folds.
VernonLyman calls [$1.50].
Ribbo calls [$1].
** Dealing Flop ** [ 2d, Kd, Jh ]
VernonLyman checks.
Ribbo checks.
stoogeone bets [$7].
jiroopark calls [$7].
VernonLyman folds.
Ribbo raises [$35.60].
stoogeone calls [$28.60].
VernonLyman: oh boy
jiroopark calls [$28.60].
** Dealing Turn ** [ 4c ]
Ribbo bets [$111.80].
Ribbo: pretty obvious what i have
stoogeone folds.
jiroopark is all-In [$62.40]
** Dealing River ** [ 8c ]
>You have options at Table 36874 Table!.
Ribbo shows [ 4h, Ks, Kh, Qs ] three of a kind, kings.
jiroopark shows [ 7h, As, 3d, Tc ] high card ace.
jiroopark shows 8,4,3,2,A for low.
Ribbo wins $49.40 from side pot #1 with three of a kind, kings.
Ribbo wins $118.30 from the main pot with three of a kind, kings.
jiroopark wins Lo ($118.30) from the main pot with 8,4,3,2,A.

[beernutz]

[ QUOTE ]
I think you will find people are morons, EVEN WHEN YOU TELL THEM WHAT YOU HAVE. But hey, no pair is a big hand, hard to fold. Only assume 1 thing at the tables, your opponents are idiots.

***** Hand History for Game 2536249183 *****
$100 PL Omaha Hi/Lo - Sunday, August 14, 20:59:57 EDT 2005
Table Table 36963 (Real Money)
Seat 8 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 1: Ribbo ( $270.90 )
Seat 2: nycpokerguy9 ( $70.19 )
Seat 3: borderhopper ( $195.84 )
Seat 4: stoogeone ( $98.95 )
Seat 5: myranger ( $125.85 )
Seat 6: KeyLargo1948 ( $93.20 )
Seat 8: cookguay ( $44 )
Seat 9: VernonLyman ( $100.55 )
Seat 10: chaz84 ( $92.85 )
Seat 7: jiroopark ( $100 )
VernonLyman posts small blind [$0.50].
Ribbo posts big blind [$1].
jiroopark posts big blind [$1].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Ribbo [ 4h Ks Kh Qs ]
nycpokerguy9 folds.
borderhopper folds.
stoogeone raises [$2].
myranger folds.
KeyLargo1948 folds.
jiroopark calls [$1].
cookguay folds.
VernonLyman calls [$1.50].
Ribbo calls [$1].
** Dealing Flop ** [ 2d, Kd, Jh ]
VernonLyman checks.
Ribbo checks.
stoogeone bets [$7].
jiroopark calls [$7].
VernonLyman folds.
Ribbo raises [$35.60].
stoogeone calls [$28.60].
VernonLyman: oh boy
jiroopark calls [$28.60].
** Dealing Turn ** [ 4c ]
Ribbo bets [$111.80].
Ribbo: pretty obvious what i have
stoogeone folds.
jiroopark is all-In [$62.40]
** Dealing River ** [ 8c ]
>You have options at Table 36874 Table!.
Ribbo shows [ 4h, Ks, Kh, Qs ] three of a kind, kings.
jiroopark shows [ 7h, As, 3d, Tc ] high card ace.
jiroopark shows 8,4,3,2,A for low.
Ribbo wins $49.40 from side pot #1 with three of a kind, kings.
Ribbo wins $118.30 from the main pot with three of a kind, kings.
jiroopark wins Lo ($118.30) from the main pot with 8,4,3,2,A.

[/ QUOTE ]

On the turn he had 8 outs to Broadway/wheel was getting almost 3:1 on the call while you were only a 61:39 favorite. That doesn't look particularly braindead to me, but wtf do I know?

[Ribbo]

Nothing, since you completely chose to ignore the flop. Would you make his call on the flop of 2 large bets?

[beernutz]

[ QUOTE ]
Nothing, since you completely chose to ignore the flop. Would you make his call on the flop of 2 large bets?

[/ QUOTE ]
You didn't tell him what you had until the turn. I thought that was your original point--that he was dumb to call the turn bet after you indirectly told him what you had.

it worked that time but i dont feel that is the right way to play that hand most of the time. you gave him an opportunity to make a draw on you for free (granted he seemed a little clueless, most players wont do something like that in a 10/20 game) if you bet out he might fold which is usually a good thing to take the pot when you can in a hi/low game so you dont have to chop on the river when a low hits. but it worked that time..nice job, he really was a sucker.

[Ribbo]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Nothing, since you completely chose to ignore the flop. Would you make his call on the flop of 2 large bets?

[/ QUOTE ]
You didn't tell him what you had until the turn. I thought that was your original point--that he was dumb to call the turn bet after you indirectly told him what you had.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes I told him on the flop when I check raised 2 people. Hell it doesn't matter what I have, calling with no pair, gutshot draw with a flush draw showing. Thats the worst.

[Wintermute]

[ QUOTE ]
From my understanding, check-calling the flop with top set and then putting serious money in on the turn when a safe card hits is a fairly standard way to play it when:

1) there are two low cards on the board
2) there is a two flush on the board
3) the board is highly coordinated

I play this way against idiots and good players. you disguise your hand against good players and the idiots will still chase their draw for one card. a CR on the flop just screams "set" to anyone who isn't a dumbass.

[/ QUOTE ]

The lower limit games are definitely heavily populated by dumbasses though. Unless stacks are very deep, with opponents I respect, I generally will get as much in on the flop as possible with top set. I don't believe there's as much value in disguising your hand against someone who isn't even capable of trying to make a read on you. Look at Ribbo's hand post in this thread for example. With players making calls that bad (esp. the all-in calls on the turn) it might be an EV-losing play to play a top set hand the way it would be best played at higher limits.

Basically, I'm saying you're too good for your own good. Unless you take your game straight to the $600/1k/2k levels. Then you might feel right at home.

[mxyzptlk]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
From my understanding, check-calling the flop with top set and then putting serious money in on the turn when a safe card hits is a fairly standard way to play it when:

1) there are two low cards on the board
2) there is a two flush on the board
3) the board is highly coordinated

I play this way against idiots and good players. you disguise your hand against good players and the idiots will still chase their draw for one card. a CR on the flop just screams "set" to anyone who isn't a dumbass.

[/ QUOTE ]

The lower limit games are definitely heavily populated by dumbasses though. Unless stacks are very deep, with opponents I respect, I generally will get as much in on the flop as possible with top set. I don't believe there's as much value in disguising your hand against someone who isn't even capable of trying to make a read on you. Look at Ribbo's hand post in this thread for example. With players making calls that bad (esp. the all-in calls on the turn) it might be an EV-losing play to play a top set hand the way it would be best played at higher limits.

Basically, I'm saying you're too good for your own good. Unless you take your game straight to the $600/1k/2k levels. Then you might feel right at home.

[/ QUOTE ]

is that a taunt to get me to the higher level games? I'll get there in time.

notice, i did say "against GOOD players you disguise your hand". I did this against a donk today and he RERAISED me on the turn. couldn't have worked out better.

[Ribbo]

[ QUOTE ]

notice, i did say "against GOOD players you disguise your hand". I did this against a donk today and he RERAISED me on the turn. couldn't have worked out better.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you overestimate exactly how many 'good players' play the game. Plus a good player doesn't have to fold anyway, he just needs a good enough draw (one significantly better than a gutshot straight and runner runner low on the flop).