What is the best hand you've folded?

First time I place a post here so go easy on me...

I'm playing Party poker 2/4. BB is a TA-N with 10/7/10 over 60 hands and I only have 21 hands on UTG so I dont really have a read on him. We are seven players at a 10 player table.

Party Poker (7 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

CO places a BB.

Preflop: Hero is Button with 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 5/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#666666">UTG calls, 2 folds</font>, CO checks, Hero calls, SB completes, BB raises, UTG calls, CO calls, Hero calls, SB calls.

Flop: 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif, T/images/graemlins/club.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, BB bets, UTG calls, CO folds, Hero raises, SB folds, BB 3-bets, UTG calls, Hero caps, BB calls, UTG calls.

I was thinking here that I only would be behind KK/TT. BB could as well have AK/AA. UTG I wasn't sure of what he might have, especially without reads. QJ, QT, JT, AT were guesses.


Turn: A/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB bets, UTG calls, Hero raises, BB 3-bets, UTG calls, Hero calls.

Here i hoped for AK at BB, but when 3-bet I just wanted to call down. UTG was still a mystery.

River: T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB bets, UTG raises, Hero calls, BB 3-bets, UTG caps, Hero folds, BB calls.

Ok, the T hit UTG hard, I called hoping it would just be trips JT/QT, but when BB 3-bets I was pretty convinced he did not have just AK and the capping made by UTG convinced me further I did not have the best hand here. So....

Final Pot:60 BB

The question I have if I should have folded at all or if there is a spot where I should have folded earlier. Comments on my thoughts (and layout)? Think I never folded a boat before and my feeling is that it will take a while before I do it again.

[sy_or_bust]

Wow, I thought this post was going to be a lot worse.

I was about to advocate a preflop raise, but saw that UTG limped (in grey), so calling is OK. I still prefer a raise, but it isn't necessary.

The rest is aggressive and good. I can't see how you're winning on the river, but folding a boat against unknowns in a 60BB pot cannot be a great idea.

[W. Deranged]

I actually wonder if perhaps the place to fold this hand is when it's two to you on the river.

BB has a really, really, really good hand, whatever it is. The T was likely not a frightening card. When the A hits on the turn and villain leads right back into you after you capped a drawless, rainbow board, TT, KK, and AA become very serious possibilities. When he three-bet the turn it's even more likely.

Consider what villain's range of hands is for three-betting out of the small blind. Let's say it's AA-TT and AK. We can effectively eliminate QQ and JJ based on the action. Of the remaining hands, there are 3 AA, 3 KK, 1 TT, and 9 AK. Such an analysis, though, assumes that this players is taking the line given with AK all the time, which I think is quite optimstic for a neutral post flop players. If we assume that players would take the given line with AK only 20% of the time, then in reality the distribution would suggest that villain is going to have a massive set here at least like 80% of the time (7 / (7 + 9*.2)). (And personally I think that 20% number is on the high side).

When UTG wakes up it becomes a distinct reality that you will have to pay 4 BB to win 56, namely you will be getting 14 - 1. If you figure that you are beating UTG 50% of the time and BB has a big set only like 80% of the time, a call looks like it might be somewhat profitable (particularly when the betting isn't capped), but I honestly think that all these numbers are quite optimistic.

I don't know. I doubt I would've folded the river here, but I imagine that you are beat here damn close to 95% of the time in reality and I think a fold may be in order when it first gets to you.

[peterchi]

Folding this and being shown AK/QJ in this big of a pot would make me want to cry and quit for the day. For this alone I'm paying $8 here. You only need to be good about 5% of the time for this call to be profitable. It might be close, but I really don't think you can be 95% sure that you're beat here.

[W. Deranged]

[ QUOTE ]
Folding this and being shown AK/QJ in this big of a pot would make me want to cry and quit for the day. For this alone I'm paying $8 here. You only need to be good about 5% of the time for this call to be profitable. It might be close, but I really don't think you can be 95% sure that you're beat here.

[/ QUOTE ]

FWIW I think that BB is turning over QJ exactly 0% of the time in this pot.

[peterchi]

i swear i didn't read your numbers before writing my post... /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[peterchi]

[ QUOTE ]

FWIW I think that BB is turning over QJ exactly 0% of the time in this pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

Because of the pre-flop raise? I know it's unlikely, but I think it's a possibility that one might try and build the pot pre-flop with QJs, then lead the flop with his draw, 3-bet the turn when it hits, and not slow down when the board pairs.

Likely, no. But possible within the realm of 5%, I think so...

[W. Deranged]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

FWIW I think that BB is turning over QJ exactly 0% of the time in this pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

Because of the pre-flop raise? I know it's unlikely, but I think it's a possibility that one might try and build the pot pre-flop with QJs, then lead the flop with his draw, 3-bet the turn when it hits, and not slow down when the board pairs.

Likely, no. But possible within the realm of 5%, I think so...

[/ QUOTE ]

Edit: I misread the action. I realize now that villain was a pre-flop raiser and not three-bettor. QJs does become a possibility now. The heavy action later, particularly on the flop, makes it still unlikely from a "neutral" profile player.

[peterchi]

[ QUOTE ]

Players who enter 10% of pots and raise 7% aren't three-betting here out of the big blind with QJ. It also wouldn't make sense as a pre-flop three-betting hand to "build the pot" because it would tend to isolate agaisnt the other raiser and shut others out of the pot. Maybe I would give it .5% or something like that but that's solely due to variance in the stats on villain.

[/ QUOTE ]

BB raised on his option, not 3-bet

[SocialWelfareIV]

[ QUOTE ]

Consider what villain's range of hands is for three-betting out of the small blind. Let's say it's AA-TT and AK. We can effectively eliminate QQ and JJ based on the action. Of the remaining hands, there are 3 AA, 3 KK, 1 TT, and 9 AK.

[/ QUOTE ]

Can you clarify where you're talking about the 3-bet. I don't see a 3-bet anywhere from the small blind. I don't see a 3-bet preflop from BB, but I do a 3-bet from the BB on all the other streets. This confuses me because I think that the BB might be raising a fairly large range of hands from the BB, esp with the poster and two callers (the preflop calls with a poster indicate pretty weak hands, IMO). I would include QJs in the range of raising hands here.

Anyway, could you just clarify exactly where in the hand you are talking about?

EDIT: See peterchi beating me to the punch.

[sy_or_bust]

The only scenario I see where Hero wins is BB overplaying AK and UTG hangs onto 2nd pair + gutshot. BB's river 3-bet makes this impossible, but this was unknown after the river bet and raise.

Anyway, this is still a river fold that is probably correct, but...

[callmedonnie]

[ QUOTE ]
I can't see how you're winning on the river, but folding a boat against unknowns in a 60BB pot cannot be a great idea.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sure, you should have folded as long as you were 97% sure your hand was no good. I call on principle, but I honestly think you may have just save yourself 2 big bets. I'm seldom 97% sure of anything, so I call. This is a crazy hand.

I was thinking in terms of 2 BB in 60, which is not quite right. You know what I mean though. I usually refrain, but what did they showdown?

[sy_or_bust]

Obviously. But 95% and 97% mean nothing, because we cannot approximate like that. Realistically it's either you always lose, or you aren't sure. It's hard to be sure, but certainly possible - OP isn't sure. So a fold is simply not a great idea.

[callmedonnie]

Agreed.

Ok, you wanted the showdown:

BB: KK
UTG: KT

I found myself having the worst of three hands on a table full of boats! Seeing the replies I myself think Hero should have not called UTG's 3-bet on turn. William's argument that the probability of BB having TT/KK/AA is so big that I think I should have folded to the 3-bet on turn.

[peterchi]

just a small note -

if i counted correctly, the final pot is actually 30BB, not 60BB.

That strengthens the argument for a river fold a bit.

[JerseyTom]

Not to be a nit, but this is a 30BB pot at the end, not a 60BB one.

That said, it's probably a fold when it's 2 to you on the river, but I'm not good enough to fold this. I cold call, then cold call again, then scream and type 'nhs' and mean it.


Tom

Yeah, I posted a question in the theory section earlier asking whether BB meant 'Big Blinds' or 'Big bets'. I never got a straight answer and personally I feel it is the worst shortening I've ever encountered and source of a lot of confusion. Sorry about that....

[W. Deranged]

[ QUOTE ]
William's argument ...

[/ QUOTE ]

Have I done something wrong to merit the use of my full first name?? /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[callmedonnie]

damn. I didn't even notice that I just accepted the number as stated. After a lot of thinking, If BB is a player you have to proceed extremely cautiously because w/ that many people in the pot a raise is coming from very few hands in BB.

And of course, 2BB at 30 affects how certain you need to be. Good post.

[Redd]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
William's argument ...

[/ QUOTE ]

Have I done something wrong to merit the use of my full first name?? /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

Is your last name actually Deranged? If so, are you a rock star and/or super villain?

[Evan]

Raise preflop to isolate the guy w/ a worse than random hand.

Other than that you played the hand well.

Oops, I apologize for my rudeness. I am just not very familiar with the etiquettes in the forum. But I did find your arguments to be very solid.

[Margeaux]

[ QUOTE ]

Is your last name actually Deranged? If so, are you a rock star and/or super villain?

[/ QUOTE ]

It's close and he is. Deranged, that is, not a hero/villain.

[Notorious G.O.B.]

Anytime I'd be forced to commit seppuko if it turned out I folded the best hand, I'm a little wary of folding. I'm not sure that 60 and 20 hands give you enough of a read to fold here. It might be a good fold, but whatever, I'd rather just pay off and find out.