9/18 AA Hand

[jason_t]

Literally first hand at Commerce 9/18 table and only one previous read.

Preflop: I am BB with A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
EP LAG limps, MP unknown limps, <font color="#cc3333">Lady SB raises</font>, <font color="#cc3333">I 3-bet</font>, the limpers call, <font color="#cc3333">SB caps</font>, we all call.

Flop: (16.00 SB) Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000ff">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#cc3333">I bet</font>, EP folds, <font color="#cc3333">MP raises</font>, SB calls, <font color="#cc3333">I 3-bet</font>, MP calls, SB calls.

Turn: (12.50 BB) K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000ff">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#cc3333">I bet</font>, MP calls, SB calls.

River (15.50 BB) Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000ff">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, sup?

[JinX11]

Check-cry-call. Unless you can bet and fold to a raise.

Live poker is rigged.

[sfer]

Starts with a B, ends with a t.

[Baloosh]

Bet. Call. Vomit.

In that order.

[billyjex]

[ QUOTE ]
Starts with a B, ends with a t.

[/ QUOTE ]

After you bet, do you call in any of these scenarios?

1) MP raises, SB CC

2) MP raises, SB folds

3) MP folds, SB C/R

4) MP calls, SB C/R

My gut tells me to call in 2 and 3, fold 1 and 4.

[W. Deranged]

I like betting and calling a single raise but folding to a raise and an overcall.

[W. Deranged]

I like the idea of calling in situations #2 and #3, where you would be the only other player left in the pot.

Against unknowns, I don't see this winning a showdown in a raised three-way pot on the river often enough to be signifincantly profitable, but I'm wondering whether it might be worth calling for metagame reasons. People will be taking shots at you for the rest of the session if you start out with that kind of fold.

[sfer]

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I like betting and calling a single raise but folding to a raise and an overcall.

[/ QUOTE ]

The overcall doesn't matter. SB has AK like always and you have the Ad.

[billyjex]

if mp raises, what the hell does he have that doesn't have a Q in it?

not saying i'd fold, because i can't fold AA on the river for one bet, but I can't think we're ahead enough.

[sfer]

[ QUOTE ]
if mp raises, what the hell does he have that doesn't have a Q in it?

not saying i'd fold, because i can't fold AA on the river for one bet, but I can't think we're ahead enough.

[/ QUOTE ]

I didn't bother making the decision that complicated. I know sometimes he'll call with a worse hand, but when you check and he bets you can be pretty damn sure that you're beaten.

[W. Deranged]

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I like betting and calling a single raise but folding to a raise and an overcall.

[/ QUOTE ]

The overcall doesn't matter. SB has AK like always and you have the Ad.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's a good point. SB's hand is very likely to be AK given the action.

What about the protected pot effect here? I don't see getting raised by MP on the river with anything short of trips, and I think the likelihood of a bluff is mitigated by the presence of the third player in the pot (who appears to be a calling station based on current action).

This doesn't directly have to do with whether an overcall matters, but it is an important consideration. Should this point us in the direction of a fold, regardless of whether we get overcalled?

[jason_t]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
if mp raises, what the hell does he have that doesn't have a Q in it?

not saying i'd fold, because i can't fold AA on the river for one bet, but I can't think we're ahead enough.

[/ QUOTE ]

I didn't bother making the decision that complicated. I know sometimes he'll call with a worse hand, but when you check and he bets you can be pretty damn sure that you're beaten.

[/ QUOTE ]

So why not check/fold?

[W. Deranged]

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if mp raises, what the hell does he have that doesn't have a Q in it?

not saying i'd fold, because i can't fold AA on the river for one bet, but I can't think we're ahead enough.

[/ QUOTE ]

I didn't bother making the decision that complicated. I know sometimes he'll call with a worse hand, but when you check and he bets you can be pretty damn sure that you're beaten.

[/ QUOTE ]

So why not check/fold?

[/ QUOTE ]

How can you honestly check-fold here? When checked to on the river a hand like KJ could totally bet here.

And worse hands will call the river bet.

[sfer]

Because you'll get raised rarely by trips with the the board paired and a flush showing where a very likely hand for you is KK, because you're guaranteed at least second place, and because I hate missing bets.

[sfer]

I don't like bet/folding on the river my first hand in a session, but that's just me.

[W. Deranged]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't like bet/folding on the river my first hand in a session, but that's just me.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, that occured to me. I mentioned in an earlier post that I think folding the river here in an circumstance (except maybe if it's bet-raise-check-reraise) is going to put a big bullseye on your head.

[intheflatfield]

[ QUOTE ]
Live poker is rigged.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree, I was playing live the other day and someone called me to the river with 72o and the only way they could have done that is if they knew the what the next card could be.

I've talked to a lot of other people who have had the same experience as I have. I think someone should look into theses serious allegations. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[jason_t]

[ QUOTE ]
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if mp raises, what the hell does he have that doesn't have a Q in it?

not saying i'd fold, because i can't fold AA on the river for one bet, but I can't think we're ahead enough.

[/ QUOTE ]

I didn't bother making the decision that complicated. I know sometimes he'll call with a worse hand, but when you check and he bets you can be pretty damn sure that you're beaten.

[/ QUOTE ]

So why not check/fold?

[/ QUOTE ]

How can you honestly check-fold here? When checked to on the river a hand like KJ could totally bet here.

And worse hands will call the river bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

What do you put SB and MP on?

I bet/call.

[ QUOTE ]
I bet/call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Idiot! Why do I always have to talk you out of harebrained ideas? Check/fold.

[uw_madtown]

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I bet/call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Fish.

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I bet/call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Idiot! Why do I always have to talk you out of harebrained ideas? Check/fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Nit.

[Petteri]

I think check - cry-call is best option. If it comes with 2 bets back to you then you can fold.

I think it is waste of money to bet this board. Check and hope you get free showdown.

[sfer]

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I bet/call.

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Idiot! Why do I always have to talk you out of harebrained ideas? Check/fold.

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I was going to post "Ghey" but I think the paranoid, religious right might be correct. Possibly "Gay."

[W. Deranged]

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if mp raises, what the hell does he have that doesn't have a Q in it?

not saying i'd fold, because i can't fold AA on the river for one bet, but I can't think we're ahead enough.

[/ QUOTE ]

I didn't bother making the decision that complicated. I know sometimes he'll call with a worse hand, but when you check and he bets you can be pretty damn sure that you're beaten.

[/ QUOTE ]

So why not check/fold?

[/ QUOTE ]

How can you honestly check-fold here? When checked to on the river a hand like KJ could totally bet here.

And worse hands will call the river bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

What do you put SB and MP on?

[/ QUOTE ]

Given that SB capped and then checked the flop, the only hand I can imagine would be AK or JJ (perhaps with the J /images/graemlins/diamond.gif, though I think very often that hand dumps on the flop). Unless the cap is totally an action play (which, for better or worse, I'm somewhat discounting as a possibility because SB is a woman... so I'm a chauvinist or smoething), I think here range is pretty narrow. The other AA seems unlikely given the flop check. I have to think KK also leads the flop and we could have heard from QQ on the turn most likely. I'm honestly expecting to see AK 85% of the time (with JJ composing a lot of the rest).

MP1 limped and then cold-called two, meaning his range is probably quite large here. One of the things that I have a hard time with here is that it would seem that a lot of hands containing Q's would reveal themselves in someway earlier:

-AQ would often raise pre-flop
-KQ would probably bark back at the turn with top two on a draw-heavy board (though maybe feared the flush)
-QJ and worse Q's might not get to the flop because of their weak kickers and might be hesitant to raise on the flop after the pre-flop cap.

I also am discounting the likelihood of a flush since we have the A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif and the turn was not raised. I don't think J9 is in play because we would have heard about it on the turn most likely. TT or another set likely would have barked again as well.

Q's are certainly a possibility, and I'd love a read on the players' styles, but I think that MP could have a bunch of stuff. Some of it, including, as mentioned, KJ, might be tempted to bet the river as well.

Basically, I just think that metagame considerations make this hard to fold on the river for one bet, and there is enough confusion in how the MP player played his hand that I'm not willing to confidently assign a Q (or better) if he bets the river.

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
Starts with a B, ends with a t.

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Perfect.

FWIW, I am folding to a MP raise here though. I don't think he's gonna bluffraise the river with his KJ straight draw often enough for me to worry when I've 3-bet the flop, am holding the Ad with a flush on board and a paired board, unless he's a complete lagtard fish.

So yeah. I think it's an easy value bet. And I fold to a raise even though I don't like it.

Rob

[sfer]

[ QUOTE ]
I think check - cry-call is best option. If it comes with 2 bets back to you then you can fold.

I think it is waste of money to bet this board. Check and hope you get free showdown.

[/ QUOTE ]

If it checks through and you win, you missed at least one bet from the SB. People who want to check need to reread river play in TOP.

[W. Deranged]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think check - cry-call is best option. If it comes with 2 bets back to you then you can fold.

I think it is waste of money to bet this board. Check and hope you get free showdown.

[/ QUOTE ]

If it checks through and you win, you missed at least one bet from the SB. People who want to check need to reread river play in TOP.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah. Checking is really no good here. You have SB beat here a huge majority of the time. Think of all her calls as an expectational discount to use against the times you are beat by the player behind you.

[JinX11]

[ QUOTE ]
Starts with a B, ends with a t.

[/ QUOTE ]

Boot? I mean, he had 12 outs to the nuts and an overpair and all, but booting on the table seems excessive and out-of-place, even for Commerce. Save that for the Vegas trip.

[shant]

You know what line I advocate.

[callmedonnie]

[ QUOTE ]
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if mp raises, what the hell does he have that doesn't have a Q in it?

not saying i'd fold, because i can't fold AA on the river for one bet, but I can't think we're ahead enough.

[/ QUOTE ]

I didn't bother making the decision that complicated. I know sometimes he'll call with a worse hand, but when you check and he bets you can be pretty damn sure that you're beaten.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why not check/fold, or check/call which is what I would probably do, because I don't want to fold Aces and don't want to put in two bets on river.

I hadn't read the whole thread when I posted. Got stuck somewhere in the middle. My bad.

[Petteri]

I do not see any room for value bet here. Every Jack or Queen(or flush) will win here. Cheap showdown is best option when you win max. 30 % times and are called or raised every time you are beaten.

[The Dude]

Betting and calling a raise, even if we stipulate that that is worse than betting and folding to a raise is better than check-folding or check-calling. You are simply missing WAY too many bets on this river when you check. There are a TON of worse hands that are going to call a bet, and your hand will be good quite a bit of the time here.

[jason_t]

[ QUOTE ]
Betting and calling a raise, even if we stipulate that that is worse than betting and folding to a raise is better than check-folding or check-calling. You are simply missing WAY too many bets on this river when you check. There are a TON of worse hands that are going to call a bet, and your hand will be good quite a bit of the time here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Drew: I like your thoughts here but what do you put the limper on?

[onegymrat]

Hi Jason,

Bet you hand. You will most likely NOT be raised if that's your thought. Neither of these ladies have flushes, of which they are deathly afraid. Even the MP with trip queens will only call, and the possibilites that she hold something like Q5s is very high. SB has AK. The Dude summed it up great.

[Borno]

I think I bet call here.. but bet/folding seems to be a very reasonable move too. You are getting the odds to call on a raise I would say. - I think somone may raise here with something less than you 6% of the time so you should be in the clear -- but its very hard to say. -- maybe not and bet/folding IS the better move.. anyway..

I've read the thread and I think SB very likely has AK as others have pointed out.

But what about MP - KQ, AJ, QJ, QT, 33 - any other good ideas?

This being the case I think you're in trouble if MP raises on the end.

Thoughts?

[meep_42]

[ QUOTE ]
If it checks through and you win, you missed at least one bet from the SB. People who want to check need to reread river play in TOP.

[/ QUOTE ]

I really wanted to find you at the Borg to thank you for this succict truism. It hadn't occured to me in just that way and really had me thinking about my river play and value betting for just about the entire drive up to AC.

-d

[sfer]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If it checks through and you win, you missed at least one bet from the SB. People who want to check need to reread river play in TOP.

[/ QUOTE ]

I really wanted to find you at the Borg to thank you for this succict truism. It hadn't occured to me in just that way and really had me thinking about my river play and value betting for just about the entire drive up to AC.

-d

[/ QUOTE ]

Next time. Did you meet Mr. Dids et al?

[meep_42]

Negative, I missed 'em all, though if dids was wearing a red button up, then i'm a dork for not saying hey.

Vegas in November i'll try not to be such a tool.
(I was playing 6/12 in the center table on Friday night in the red shirt in the 3 or 4 seat. Saturday during the day I was in the 10 seat in orange.)

-d

I really think that the MP is playing AQ. The queen is almost a given looking at the betting pattern - raise on the flop when he has top pair and then only calling when the K hits the board on the turn. If he had made any other second pair (if he had QT or KQ) you would have been raised on the turn. I think the A is a likely second card because only QJ is the other starting hand he would have called a capped pre-flop with. Either way I think that betting is the way to go - your bet on the turn may have given MP the impression that you have the flush and they will only call the bet - hoping to "get out cheap" as you are also trying to do.