Stuck between two AAxx

[Cezar]

I remember reading somewhere (I think it was "How good is your PLO") that when you are stuck between two AAxx hands re-raising each other, sometimes it makes sense to tag along. The aces are likely to split, and they are blocking each others set outs, so a decent non-AA hand just might end up with greater then 33% chance to scoop a three-way pot. What do you think of this, and what kind of hands would you play in this position ?

In the hand I played today, I had KK99 doublesuited. After two players made it very clear that they have AAxx, I figured my hand just might be good enough for this scenario.
Long story short, my stack was carved between the Aces.

In post-mortem, two of my set outs were dead, as well as one flush draw. I played around with Card player's Omaha calculator. In this particular set up I was looking at 27.51% chance to win. I then played around with different kickers the AAxx hands could've had. Having 3 set outs live, I would just edge into +EV with 36% chance to win. In the (unlikely) optimum scenario of having 4 set outs and both flush draws, I was looking at 48%.

What are your thoughts on the subject ?

P.S. Both opponents had singlesuited aces. Can someone help me figure out the math ? Assuming random two cards with AAxx, what are the chances my set/flush draws are live ?

[sy_or_bust]

I don't think you want to be playing for sets in most scenarios. This concept tends to apply when you have decent big hand potential (often 2 pair or better), because when you make a better hand than a single pair of aces you often need only beat marginal card combinations between 2 opponents to take the whole pot.

For example, a weak doublesuited hand vs ragged aces is about 50% to win, e.g. :

cards EV
7s Ac Kd Ah 0.250
As 5c Ad Th 0.257
Qc 2c Jh 6h 0.493

K9sK9s is only 0.42 against these ragged hands. Intuitively, the reason seems to be that the K9sK9s will beat aces less often but do so in a far bigger way. This is inherently a more speculative hand, since it can make big hands that do better with better drawing odds.

Against stronger ace hands I imagine the value of K9sK9s does not vary as much (unless the flushes are dead) as much weaker hands.

I'm not experienced enough in PLO to give a better answer - just wanted to think this through a little bit.

[joewatch]

The way I think of this kind of hand is that 2-pair has about 25% to make a set if played to the river. So I don't play it all-in unless I am getting 3:1 on my money. If I also have str8 and flush possibilities, I will play for 2:1.

[abscr]

Where are you getting 25%? With four outs preflop to river, I get:

1-[ 44/48 * 43/47 * 42/46 * 41/45 * 40/44 ] = .3657

Also, and I don't know why it is different than my calculation:

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1139012
pokenum -mc 500000 -o as ad ac ah - ts td 3c 3h
Omaha Hi: 500000 sampled boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
As Ac Ad Ah 304599 60.92 195401 39.08 0 0.00 .609
Ts 3c Td 3h 195401 39.08 304599 60.92 0 0.00 .391

[Ribbo]

pretty simple, you dont want smaller pairs against AA, you want straight wraps.

[Cezar]

25% does seem a bit low. Can't argue with two dimes, seems like the best answer. Your original formula is wrong tho. For starters, it counts as two wins hitting quards or two sets. But the actual answer is higher, because you count cards out of 48 (52 -4 in my hand), when we already established that 4 aces are out.

[Spellmen]

I think it is around 34%

[abscr]

Yeah. The formula is wrong. Changing it to

1-[ 40/44 * 39/43 * 38/42 * 37/41 * 36/40 ]
yields .39.

[illegit]

[ QUOTE ]
In the hand I played today, I had KK99 doublesuited. After two players made it very clear that they have AAxx, I figured my hand just might be good enough for this scenario.
Long story short, my stack was carved between the Aces.

[/ QUOTE ]
I like the idea of getting in against 2 AAXX hands, but not with your holding. Change it to QJT9 or something of that sort and I'll jump right in.

Who says you even have to show down your hand? If you keep the pot small pre-flop so the aces aren't pot-logged, they'll have to fold the flop with only one pair. If it's a raise reraise to you, if you call you might bluff them. Maybe only in deep stack games?

[ QUOTE ]
The way I think of this kind of hand is that 2-pair has about 25% to make a set if played to the river.

[/ QUOTE ] The mistake here is that 2 pair has a 25% of flopping a set, not making a set by the river. 2 pairs against two aa hands ain't bad.

AAKK no suits
AAQQ no suits
7788 doublesuited 44.91%

Who would've thought it? The straight possiblities are worth more than the flush draws because they are always good.

Even with a mince hand like 101055 no suits, you're only a slight dog when the two aa hands are both doublesuited and the sidecards don't match. Not bad at all, especially with the dead blind money.

[joewatch]

[ QUOTE ]
The mistake here is that 2 pair has a 25% of flopping a set, not making a set by the river. 2 pairs against two aa hands ain't bad.


[/ QUOTE ]

Right Tom, thanks for the clarification.

A pair flops a set 12%, so 2-pair flops a set 24%