Checking this river is the right play, right?

[Jinx]

Just wondering if perhaps betting here would be a bit too thin.

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (6 max, 5 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is BB with T/images/graemlins/club.gif, J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP calls, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, SB calls, Hero calls, MP calls.

Flop: (8 SB) 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif, J/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 2/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, Hero checks, MP checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets</font>, SB calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, MP calls, Button calls, SB folds.

Turn: (7.50 BB) 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP calls, Button calls.

River: (10.50 BB) A/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero ...

[TheMetetron]

Checking this river is the crappy play.

This forum needs a sticky that asks "What do I do on this river?".

And the post should just contain the following words:


Value. Bet.

[ArturiusX]

I've never seen a 'thin' value bet in my life.

[cmwck]

[ QUOTE ]
Checking this river is the crappy play.

This forum needs a sticky that asks "What do I do on this river?".

And the post should just contain the following words:


Value. Bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

How do you respond to a raise here?

I'm calling one if I close the action.

[kurosh]

Wtf? Value bet? They're not going to call you with king-high and J8. I check and evaluate the action. Button very likely has an ace and the flush is out there too.

[TheMetetron]

[ QUOTE ]
Wtf? Value bet? They're not going to call you with king-high and J8. I check and evaluate the action. Button very likely has an ace and the flush is out there too.

[/ QUOTE ]

You must be kidding me...

[wackjob]

Don't you hate this situation? I think a check/call is ok but not great. I think a bet &amp; fold to a raise is ok but not great. I think a bet &amp; call a raise is ok but not great. I think I bet &amp; call.

[New001]

I don't know about you, but I play poker online and they call with all kinds of garbage here.

[kurosh]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Wtf? Value bet? They're not going to call you with king-high and J8. I check and evaluate the action. Button very likely has an ace and the flush is out there too.

[/ QUOTE ]

You must be kidding me...

[/ QUOTE ]

Button has an ace at least 80% of the time. A bet here is terrible.

[cmwck]

[ QUOTE ]
Wtf? Value bet? They're not going to call you with king-high and J8. I check and evaluate the action. Button very likely has an ace and the flush is out there too.

[/ QUOTE ]

At 2/4 at least there's at least one guy at the table who's calling down with any pair.

Against one opponent this is an easy bet. But there's two opponents here, so maybe that's what you don't like?

[TheMetetron]

You narrowed his range to an Ace 80% of the time based on what??

A need to justify a missed value bet?

[cmwck]

[ QUOTE ]
You narrowed his range to an Ace 80% of the time based on what??

A need to justify a missed value bet?

[/ QUOTE ]

OK, i've thought about this some more, and I think if we were heads up with the Button, I'd check-call the river.

The ace is a fairly bad card for you. It's likely that Button missed the flop, so when that ace falls on the river he's not going to call and lose with any PF raising hand that missed the flop.

So, there's that factor. Now add in the fact that MP cold-called the flop and is still around on the river. This means we have a bad value bet against one guy, and an OK value bet against the other. I don't really know how to add "bad" and "OK" together, but the result probably isn't "good".

I'm starting to like checking the river now...

[kurosh]

Based on a PF raise, the flop call and turn call. I read hands well. There's TT-88 and the unlikely KQ, but most of the time it's going to be some sort of ace.

[cmwck]

[ QUOTE ]
Based on a PF raise, the flop call and turn call. I read hands well. There's TT-88 and the unlikely KQ, but most of the time it's going to be some sort of ace.

[/ QUOTE ]

So does that mean you're check/folding if Button bets?

[kurosh]

If MP bet and button called, I would fold. If button bets, I'm calling.

[cmwck]

[ QUOTE ]
If MP bet and button called, I would fold. If button bets, I'm calling.

[/ QUOTE ]

damn, forgot to look at the size of the pot. yeah, even if Button has an ace 80% of the time like you claim, he'll still bet worse hands as well, and we only have to be ahead less than 10% of the time to call

[Lmn55d]

Hey, I just want to point out that JQ and KJ that got scared and didn't 3bet the flop are also possible. Against these you want to check as you might get a free showdown. I agree with Kurosh that you should check as the resulting action could very likely save you a bet.

[ArturiusX]

[ QUOTE ]
Wtf? Value bet? They're not going to call you with king-high and J8. I check and evaluate the action. Button very likely has an ace and the flush is out there too.

[/ QUOTE ]

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&amp;Number=3124045&amp;page=0&amp;view=colla psed&amp;sb=5&amp;o=14&amp;fpart=1#Post3124134

I think I found a leak.

[kurosh]

I admited I dicked up that hand and I should've bet the river. This one is completely different.

[wackjob]

Its all about the concept here. Is there value in a river bet? I think most people agree there is.. thus bet.

[ArturiusX]

[ QUOTE ]
I admited I dicked up that hand and I should've bet the river. This one is completely different.

[/ QUOTE ]

It is completely different, but handling situations where you could be behind is handled a bit weird by you.

In this situation its a button raiser in 3/6, he'll have weird holdings like K7s here. I see value in a bet unless hes a hyper aggressive bluffer.

[TheMetetron]

You know I just looked over the hand again, and the first thing that came to my mind was "bet the river... easy".

I stand by my original assessment.

[Drontier]

easy check. no thought involved

[wackjob]

"easy check. no thought involved"

Sounds like you just got out of "weak-tight pussy" class. Don't take that the wrong way, but the fact that you don't even think about this hand is sad.

[Drontier]

there was no draw on the board on the flop, except for a spade draw that hit. in fact the board was beautifully uncoordinated. they are calling u with SOME piece of it. And hey if youre lucky that they call u with guts like 89, then they arent calling a river bet, so might as well induce a bluff, no? U think they are btoh calling down with 7s and worse jacks over 50% of the time? even a jack in alst position might bet this if checekd to him. this just seems so basic. yovue played hands like these a lot of times so its in the back of ur head, no thought involved and you check.

[einbert]

It's closer than those saying "Bed goddammit" are making it out to be.

I feel that, given the information you've given, it is correct to fold to a raise. So I bet and fold to a raise. If I were heads up with an aggressive player, I would most likely check here but these guys are not going to bet here as a bluff very often IMO.

[Trix]

I´m with kurosh on this hand, but it´s kinda cool how people keep taking shots at him with old hands whenever he posts advice..

[Sporky]

i check it here.

[Derek in NYC]

[ QUOTE ]
Wtf? Value bet? They're not going to call you with king-high and J8. I check and evaluate the action. Button very likely has an ace and the flush is out there too.

[/ QUOTE ]

NFW I bet this river.

[Danenania]

It's a tricky river. I think betting is probably best by a very narrow margin. I'm not expecting to win at all often when I bet, but I feel I'll make slightly more money by betting and collecting from MP's worse J's than by checking and collecting from Button's KQ or TT bluffs.

[krishanleong]

[ QUOTE ]
I´m with kurosh on this hand

[/ QUOTE ]

And I wish people would stop making random attacks on an online message board. Keep it civil please.

Krishan

[DMBFan23]

[ QUOTE ]
but the fact that you don't even think about this hand is sad.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
Is there value in a river bet? I think most people agree there is.. thus bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

hand ranges pls

[Sporky]

[ QUOTE ]
It's a tricky river. I think betting is probably best by a very narrow margin. I'm not expecting to win at all often when I bet, but I feel I'll make slightly more money by betting and collecting from MP's worse J's than by checking and collecting from Button's KQ or TT bluffs.

[/ QUOTE ]

are you folding to a raise? tons of stuff got there on the river and i've had people bluff me on plenty of rivers like this before. i agree a tricky situation. i like a check to see the action of mp/button before i make a decision to call or fold. i'm not feeling that great about my hand at this point. if mp bets and button calls/raises i muck. if mp checks and button bets, i'm in.

[twankerr]

You aren't inducing a bluff on the river with that card showing up. If you check and they bet, they're the ones betting for value. However, I still bet the river because you will get called by hands that will never bet if checked to. Those hands are: worse J, a 7, lower pair, maybe a deuce...

If Villain(s) raise then you have to play poker. It will matter wildly where the raise came from.

[twankerr]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
but the fact that you don't even think about this hand is sad.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
Is there value in a river bet? I think most people agree there is.. thus bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

hand ranges pls

[/ QUOTE ]

huh? All you need to see is that they will call with hands that they won't put in the bet with. Simple TOP stuff here...

[DMBFan23]

simple TOP stuff is value betting when you think you are ahead 55% of the time you are called, not that there exist worse hands that they will call with. how often button has an ace (depending on his hand range) DEFINITELY impacts the value of a bet.

[twankerr]

[ QUOTE ]
simple TOP stuff is value betting when you think you are ahead 55% of the time you are called, not that there exist worse hands that they will call with. how often button has an ace (depending on his hand range) DEFINITELY impacts the value of a bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think if we are called on the river, we are a favorite to win the pot. If our hand is worth a call or almost worth a call if our opponents bet, we should bet if the Villains will call with more hands than they will bet with. Thats it.

[tolbiny]

fold.

[krishanleong]

[ QUOTE ]

huh? All you need to see is that they will call with hands that they won't put in the bet with. Simple TOP stuff here...

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a really bad way to determine if you have a river value bet. Your just stating the underlying theory. This particular instance requires more thought.

Krishan

[DMBFan23]

I agree with your point but that's only two of the river options

so, betting &gt; check calling, and your argument supports that. I agree, given the protected pot, you are going to be an underdog when you check and call. however, don't forget to factor in the times we get raised on the river. if we are more of a favorite when we bet and are called (as opposed to check calling), or hell, we can even be a favorite overall when called (not relative to check calling) but we get raised 80% of the time, do we still have a profitable bet?

it all comes down to ppl's hand ranges

[twankerr]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

huh? All you need to see is that they will call with hands that they won't put in the bet with. Simple TOP stuff here...

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a really bad way to determine if you have a river value bet. Your just stating the underlying theory. This particular instance requires more thought.

Krishan

[/ QUOTE ]

I got to the point I was trying to make a few posts down though, didn't I?

[twankerr]

[ QUOTE ]
I agree with your point but that's only two of the river options

so, betting &gt; check calling, and your argument supports that. I agree, given the protected pot, you are going to be an underdog when you check and call. however, don't forget to factor in the times we get raised on the river. if we are more of a favorite when we bet and are called (as opposed to check calling), or hell, we can even be a favorite overall when called (not relative to check calling) but we get raised 80% of the time, do we still have a profitable bet?

it all comes down to ppl's hand ranges

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know if an ace gets past the turn without some sort of draw. Many people will fire that flop, get raised and fold UI on the turn. He would have to have an A2-A5 (the ace of spades showed up, so a flush or backdoor flush is out) to make it past the turn. There is no read on the button, and given his range of hands to be stealing with I do not think he has two spades or an ace that large of a time. I'm willing to bring it close to half, but there is no way he has those two hands 80% of the time.

[DMBFan23]

ah, now were getting into some hand ranges.

I can't really defend the 80% as I just made it up to suggest that just because betting &gt; check calling, doesnt mean that either or both options are +EV. whether that is true for this specific hand, we shall have to determine.

I was just rebutting the "everyone seems to think there is value, so bet" statement.

[twankerr]

Yah and since no one dicusses hands for more than 10 words here anymore, I decided to go nutzo on this one. Here's something else I just came up with.

This is a 3-handed game on the river, so a lot of FTOP stuff will break down. Betting and getting called by MP, we are an overwhelming favorite. So, if we bet and both call I can arbitrarly put our chances to win the pot at something like 45/10/45. Does the prescence of the third player make it profitable to bet here? I'm actually asking this question, it isn't rhetorical so give me your thoughts.