Push crap or wait a hand?

[Misfire]

Ok, I'm still trying to figure out this bubble aggression/desperation thing. Sorry if this is too n00bish, but it's probably my biggest weakness right now...

$10+1
Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t400 (4 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

BB (t4101)
UTG (t1256)
Hero (t1230)
SB (t1413)

Preflop:Hero is Button with 3/images/graemlins/club.gif, 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif.

UTG folds, Hero?

[petvan]

folds.. just about anything you get next hand is going to be better..

[lastchance]

Easy, easy fold.

FOLD!!! MUCK!

[Misfire]

That's what I figured.

So if I'm not pushing any two, what should the threshold be? Under what conditions should I be pushing any two? (or is "any two" not meant to be taken literally?)

[Freudian]

In this hand big stack is BB and I am learning the hard way that big stacks don't respect 3xBB all-ins.

[juris]

You really have to give it up and take your shot soon, but it's almost impossible to have a worse hand.

If this was the big blind, non bubble, and three limpers, that would be a much more interesting question.

[eastbay]

Here's one way to approach the general underlying question.

Let's do an ICM analysis for push equity for 32o now (to make the final point clear), or for pushing any (and every) hand you get next hand.

Let's take the stack pecularities out of the question for the moment and give everybody 2300 and you 1200, and keep blinds 200/400.

For 20% of K-S rank calling ranges, your push equity is 17.4%. This appears to be about a break-even proposition with folding the hand. However...

If you fold this hand and push any two from UTG, your push equity has now dropped slightly to 17.2%. This is a weighted average of a push equity for every possible holding you might pick up on the next hand. How is a drop possible even when your cards will be better? Position, position, position.

Considering if you fold once more you're going to get whacked by the BB for 1/3 of your stack, folding twice can only be worse than pushing from the button or utg.

Digging a little deeper, once you're UTG your all-in will probably get a little less respect than it might from the button, since people know you don't want to get whacked for 1/3 of your stack on the next hand, so keeping calling standards constant from your button to utg push is probably optimistic. This only makes the conclusion more clear.

The analysis here says quite clearly: push crap hand now.

The possibly counterintuitive reason is that any advantage you are gaining from drawing two new cards is being more than counteracted by your weakened position.

The effect is not huge in this case, but I've given you 32o to make the principle as clear as possible. Even with 32o, position wins over a random draw of new cards.

Working this out with the extra variables of a big stack and two shorter stacks (and all that implies) is left as an exercise for the reader.

eastbay

[45suited]

Eastbay, one thing that your analysis did not mention that I think is relevant is the possibility that one of the other two shortstacks makes a move and busts before you do. This is one spot that I have to go against the program and be a little patient.

[runner4life7]

Eastbay,
thanks for posting here because I think I would have pushed this and if anything thought it might have been close, but everyone said auto fold and I almost questioned my play. Thank you for the confidence and the money you have basically made me because I am a robot not a brain.

[Myst]

[ QUOTE ]
That's what I figured.

So if I'm not pushing any two, what should the threshold be? Under what conditions should I be pushing any two? (or is "any two" not meant to be taken literally?)

[/ QUOTE ]

If it were that easy, everyone would make money playing poker.

Two words: situational dependent.

[Barrett's Last Privateer]

Eastbay,

Nice post.

[ QUOTE ]
Working this out with the extra variables of a big stack and two shorter stacks (and all that implies) is left as an exercise for the reader.

[/ QUOTE ]

Nice finish.

BLP

[johnny005]

I'm running things through ICM and I notice that ICM is saying that with SB's range as tight which It would normally be, and BB's set too loose this is a +EV play.. But I think in this situation you realy need to be pretty dead on with your calling ranges if sb loosens up at all beyond TT+,AQs+,Ako+ then things become break even or worse. The big stack is going to call with alot of hands here.
But if you do get called and win your in nice position to go for 1st. This is one tough spot.

[lastchance]

Big stack is getting 2.5:1. I think that's good enough to put his range on any 2.

SB would be a real moron for folding AJ or 77 against your very wide range when he/she has only 3x BB and can play against the real shortie.

I am too tight here, but I am very confident that folding this is correct, especially considering your FE is nil.

[tshort]

Why would you disregard the actual stack for this problem?

How can you say that .2% ICM towards not folding is "quite clear" for folding now?

I think it is clear the actual stack sizes will lean towards pushing the next hand. 45suited's point of the SB possibly pushing will change the results. With your assumptions, you've given a .2% ICM edge to pushing on the button rather than waiting. The possibility of the SB pushing and losing would give the edge to waiting a hand.

I disagre that people will loosen their calling ranges when he pushes UTG. It is a $10+1. I would make no assumptions as to how players at a $10+1 will reason. They will just as likely view him pushing on the button as an attempt to steal the blinds.

Looking at the actual problem, I think it is a clear fold. First, the SB should push a good number of hands if you fold. Assume SB will push 30% of the time and BB will call 20% of the time. If the hands are on average a coin-flip, the SB will bust 3% of the time. A good player in the SB will push more often, therefore will bust more often than the 3% calculation.

Assuming, he fold and SB folds, stacks are now 1230, 1213, 4301, and 1256, with 4301 and 1256 to post SB and BB. I think the button will be much tighter than K-S 20%. It would be fair to put the BB and SB at calling with K-S top 20%, but even that might be a stretch. Also, I think you have more FE against the big stack if you wait a hand. It would take me to long to work out the exact equities, as I don't have a program such as yours (sorry, I'll buy it at some point).

The point is, when you judge the actual stack sizes in the problem I think it will be clear to wait a hand.

-tshort

[45suited]

[ QUOTE ]
Big stack is getting 2.5:1. I think that's good enough to put his range on any 2.

SB would be a real moron for folding AJ or 77 against your very wide range when he/she has only 3x BB and can play against the real shortie.

I am too tight here, but I am very confident that folding this is correct, especially considering your FE is nil.

[/ QUOTE ]

Great point. So just taking 35o vs a random hand, 64% of the time, you will lose to the BB. Plus, there's the times that SB decides to call.

Granted, there is an extremely small chance that BB won't call. Or he may call and you double up.

But by doing this, roughly 2/3 times you will finish OOTM right then and there. Plus, there are the times that you fold and one of the other 3 shortstacks makes a move and busts. That never seems to be taken into account, and I don't know why since the possibility is very real in this situation.

If I'm the SB, I'm happier than a pig in [censored] that there is a 2+2 pushmonkey Button who is willing to let me fold ITM by pushing here.

[golfcchs]

[ QUOTE ]
Big stack is getting 2.5:1. I think that's good enough to put his range on any 2.

SB would be a real moron for folding AJ or 77 against your very wide range when he/she has only 3x BB and can play against the real shortie.


[/ QUOTE ]

I completely agree here. At the 11's the sb will call with almost any pair and probably most aces and broadways and I think big stack will call with top 75% or so. Fold this hand push next and hope other short stack gets knocked out.

[Nottom]

[ QUOTE ]

Granted, there is an extremely small chance that BB won't call. .

[/ QUOTE ]

People almost always underestimate this chance.

[runner4life7]

If i knew the BB had a brain thats different. At the 10+1s i have no reason to believe he even knows what pot odds are.

[45suited]

[ QUOTE ]
If i knew the BB had a brain thats different. At the 10+1s i have no reason to believe he even knows what pot odds are.

[/ QUOTE ]

Is it fair to say that at an 11, the BB may be less likely to call, but that the SB is more likely to call than he would at a higher buy in?

Nottom is correct when he says that people underestimate the chances that BB folds here. I was guilty of that - he will fold on occassion but not enough IMO. I think we all agree that this spot sucks.

[runner4life7]

yeah i couldnt agree more that this spot sucks and at the 33s i would spend some time thinking but i think id still lean towards push depending on if the BB has shown that he is trying to get in the money or take 1st. If the SB calls I suckout on him anyways for calling when he shouldnt.

[lastchance]

Yeah.

Ok. So, anyone want to run some ICM calcs on this? Top 80% for BB, top 15% for SB?

Maybe I'm underestimating the stupidity at the $11's here, still, that looks ok, I guess.

[runner4life7]

After watching my roommate play the 11s Ive seen some people miss some calls that i thought would be call with 32o easy because they only know how to play with hands they think are good. Or a lot at this level are still in that wanting to get ITM mode far too often, but I think those numbers are probably fair.

[bennies]

lol

lol

I've never seen such a big -EV move before, it's -7,9%

If I change the calling standards to 15% and 50% it is still a -4,3% move. Only if I move Big stacks range down to about 15% also do we get a breakeven move.

[eastbay]

[ QUOTE ]
Eastbay, one thing that your analysis did not mention that I think is relevant is the possibility that one of the other two shortstacks makes a move and busts before you do. This is one spot that I have to go against the program and be a little patient.

[/ QUOTE ]

Exactly when do you think this is going to happen? When you're on your 53o, if you fold, the only possibility is that SB 1) pushes, and 2) is called, and 3) busts. (in the original problem, this also has to be weighed against the possibility that SB pushes, is called, and doubles, since BB is going to call with a lot of crap.)

Since here BB is calling for all his chips and SB is pushing for all of his with a short stack at the table two hands from the blind, you might just stab at this and say SB would push a top third hand (although he should push more), BB would call with about top 10%. That's 3.3% of a push and a call. Assuming no split pots (which makes the effect even less important), your equity jumps to 27% with a bust. This is about a .3% boost over your nominal equity. This is basically the same as what you lose in giving up position and pushing the next hand.

On the next hand, you're UTG. You can't see if somebody's going in first ahead of you.

Are you advocating folding twice and taking the blind?

eastbay

[eastbay]

[ QUOTE ]
Why would you disregard the actual stack for this problem?

[/ QUOTE ]

Depends on what "this problem" is. OP posted a hand but seemed interested in a more general question than this particular hand.

I separated issues of cards vs. position to address that independently.

[ QUOTE ]

How can you say that .2% ICM towards not folding is "quite clear" for folding now?


[/ QUOTE ]

For the reasons I stated. What wasn't clear about it? I gave the poster 32o. Clearly the difference only increases from there. It also only increases with the loss of respect. It's a general principle I'm pointing out, getting caught up in specifics is to miss the point of the analysis.

Considering the possibility of a SB push and bust is an interesting question. If someone wants to actually work that part out rather than wave hands at it, that would be cool. Actually, I already did it. It's almost enough to make the difference for 32o in particular, making it a wash.

The point is that people in this thread were overvaluing their cards and undervaluing their loss of position (not even mentioning it), and I wanted to point that out.

[ QUOTE ]

The point is, when you judge the actual stack sizes in the problem I think it will be clear to wait a hand.


[/ QUOTE ]

Could be - that's a different question that was given for homework.

eastbay

[EnderFFX]

[ QUOTE ]
Ok, I'm still trying to figure out this bubble aggression/desperation thing. Sorry if this is too n00bish, but it's probably my biggest weakness right now...

$10+1
Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t400 (4 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

BB (t4101)
UTG (t1256)
Hero (t1230)
SB (t1413)

Preflop:Hero is Button with 3/images/graemlins/club.gif, 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif.

UTG folds, Hero?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you have to push here because this is the last hand that you will have any fold equity left. Next hand a short stack is in for the BB and you are under the gun. If you push then, he already has 1/3 of his stack in the pot, and will probably have a huge calling range. (Ax, Kx, Qx, two broadway, any pair, maybe even two of the same suit) If you push you also have one extra person to go through to steal the blinds.

Push now, pray BB doesn't have a pair when he calls.

[lastchance]

I think that is what we are advocating, and in this spot, where SB is going to need to pick up chips, where UTG is going to also have to pay almost a third of his stack, and this is before we are.

Unless you pick up a good hand, or from the UTG, a very good hand, I think we are advocating waiting a few hands and seeing the blind. In fact, with a shortstack that is just one position before us, I think it's a great idea to try to fold ITM here.

[eastbay]

[ QUOTE ]
I think that is what we are advocating, and in this spot, where SB is going to need to pick up chips, where UTG is going to also have to pay almost a third of his stack, and this is before we are.

Unless you pick up a good hand, or from the UTG, a very good hand, I think we are advocating waiting a few hands and seeing the blind. In fact, with a shortstack that is just one position before us, I think it's a great idea to try to fold ITM here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you're confusing the original chip stacks with the ones I used for my analysis now of weighing cards vs. position.

There's no folding into the money when you've got half the chips of everybody else at the table.

eastbay

[lastchance]

Aite. I thought you were advocating this strategy for this particular situation, not your hypothetical one.

[eastbay]

[ QUOTE ]
Aite. I thought you were advocating this strategy for this particular situation, not your hypothetical one.

[/ QUOTE ]

No, that's why I pointed out that a reader should reconsider the problem with the actual stacks and all that goes along with it.

eastbay

[Misfire]

[ QUOTE ]
SB would be a real moron for folding AJ or 77 against your very wide range when he/she has only 3x BB and can play against the real shortie.

[/ QUOTE ]

On the flip side, SB may believe (wrongly or rightly) that BB will call with any two. If he knows that my push range w/ 3xBB is pretty wide and a call by BB is almost certain, I'd think (at the $11s at least) he'd be more likely to try and fold anything but a monster and sneak into the money. That was my thinking at least, so I wasn't afraid of him, just BB and his huge stack.

As for the general discussion, it looks like I'm probably too tight on the bubble and doing as eastbay said--undervaluing position.

[Misfire]

[ QUOTE ]
There's no folding into the money when you've got half the chips of everybody else at the table.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm assuming this means BB w/ 4k in chips will call no matter what. Considering the actual chipstacks, does the risk of surely getting called now outweigh the advantage of my position?

In other words, I think I understand the point that my position here matters more than cards, and having slightly better cards than 32os helps make the case for pushing that much stronger, but do the actual chip stacks (as opposed to your hypothetical ones) swing the pendulum the other way?

I was looking for the general discussion (and thanks for your help, eastbay), but in going back to my homework assignment with the hand I posted, I'm still scared of BB.

[eastbay]

[ QUOTE ]

I was looking for the general discussion (and thanks for your help, eastbay), but in going back to my homework assignment with the hand I posted, I'm still scared of BB.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think that fear is justified with the big stack in the BB here.

I'm not going to rework the numbers, but this does help lean the other direction.

In the final analysis, I think this might be one of those "damned if you do, damned if you don't" situations that you shouldn't beat yourself up too much about.

eastbay

[Misfire]

[ QUOTE ]
In the final analysis, I think this might be one of those "damned if you do, damned if you don't" situations that you shouldn't beat yourself up too much about.

[/ QUOTE ]

I wasn't beating myself up so much as going over my hand history and thinking, wow, I fold really often when I'm short stacked. So I tried to find the most extreme combination between being short stacked and having crappy cards to try and figure this stuff out.

Surely I should have pushed the next hand w/ A4os, but I wussed out on that one too. /images/graemlins/frown.gif

I ended up pushing 9/images/graemlins/club.gif Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif UTG a little while later. I lost all but 24 chips (BB 600) with 4 still left. Somehow I came back to win 1st. Better lucky than good, eh?

[tjh]

Great discussion guys..

As to the original poster's question about aggression on the bubble. Why do we favor aggression on the bubble ? Because other players play to tight. You are counting on them making a mistake and folding a better hand. I feel that we give them too much credit to assume that they will understand the bubble and play properly by assessing the odds. They usually do not. I started with a basic aggression strategy that took into account what "they have" (usually nothing) more than what " I have" if it is folded to me I would go for a steal with just about any two. I have tried changing that to "any decent cards" but that leads to pushes out of position. I would rather play junk in position than decent cards out of position. You have to get two players to fold. What matters is what they have not what you have. This is you last chance to push with fold equity against two random hands you might want to take it.

Factors that I consider...
How aggressive has the table been ? If someone is likely to push and be called down in the next few hands then you can afford to wait. If they are tight then all the more reason to push.

I do think that there are two camps when it comes to aggression in the late stages of the game and the difference is those that push with decent cards and wait for decent cards and those that push based on position. If it is folded to you and you have fold equity you push. I used to push regardless of cards, I started to wait for cards and it seems to have hurt my game.

My unscientific analysis is this.
They fold 40% of the time.
Any hand wins about 25% of the time..
Therefore push any two. Really any two.
They usually have nothing and will fold....I think

Please note that the details of your particular posted hand make this really close. Depending on the read of the big stack and the other players and my behavior until this point I might fold this. If they are tight and Big stack is cautious I push.

--
tjh