Some hands and some whine.

[Sabrazack]

I have now run so bad for so long that i don't think im running bad any more. It has quite simply become normal for me. I thought i was a winning player, had a 15% roi over almost 2k tournaments. This has now dropped to 8% over the last 600 tournaments. Im almost sure im playing just as well as i did before, if not better. But i just can't win. So here are a few hands i would like comments on to use as a wake up call or a reassuring.

Im wondering if these pushes are too agressive with my stack sizes.

Hand 1: I had not been overly agressive or pushed alot before this.

#Game No : 2517863856
***** Hand History for Game 2517863856 *****
NL Texas Hold'em $20 Buy-in + $2 Entry Fee Trny:14748457 Level:5 Blinds(75/150) - Thursday, August 11, 17:36:41 EDT 2005
Table Table 14511 (Real Money)
Seat 8 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 2: bavafish ( $4090 )
Seat 4: Trajoutname ( $650 )
Seat 8: pOkErLaDy02_ ( $2365 )
Seat 9: SteakJones ( $895 )
Trny:14748457 Level:5
Blinds(75/150)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Trajoutname [ Jc 8s ]
Trajoutname is all-In [650]

Hand 2: A little like the first hand, same thing

#Game No : 2517963658
***** Hand History for Game 2517963658 *****
NL Texas Hold'em $20 Buy-in + $2 Entry Fee Trny:14749041 Level:5 Blinds(75/150) - Thursday, August 11, 17:56:34 EDT 2005
Table Table 14016 (Real Money)
Seat 1 is the button
Total number of players : 6
Seat 1: joh340 ( $2535 )
Seat 3: soonerbunny ( $1345 )
Seat 4: MUSHMASTER ( $2190 )
Seat 7: JonatanB ( $605 )
Seat 9: ADRIZZO ( $580 )
Seat 10: TheSlipper ( $745 )
Trny:14749041 Level:5
Blinds(75/150)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to JonatanB [ Qh 2c ]
JonatanB is all-In [605]

Hand 3:

#Game No : 2517963316
***** Hand History for Game 2517963316 *****
NL Texas Hold'em $20 Buy-in + $2 Entry Fee Trny:14748892 Level:5 Blinds(75/150) - Thursday, August 11, 17:56:30 EDT 2005
Table Table 13758 (Real Money)
Seat 6 is the button
Total number of players : 6
Seat 1: DAVID_Q ( $1125 )
Seat 2: rfc12319 ( $445 )
Seat 4: romeo020581 ( $1075 )
Seat 6: PhatCat83 ( $3025 )
Seat 9: JonatanB ( $1430 )
Seat 10: glottis45 ( $900 )
Trny:14748892 Level:5
Blinds(75/150)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to JonatanB [ Ah Jc ]
DAVID_Q calls [150].
rfc12319 folds.
romeo020581 folds.
PhatCat83 calls [150].
JonatanB is all-In [1355]

Hand 4: Had not pushed into his BB before this.

#Game No : 2518166488
***** Hand History for Game 2518166488 *****
NL Texas Hold'em $20 Buy-in + $2 Entry Fee Trny:14750009 Level:5 Blinds(75/150) - Thursday, August 11, 18:35:31 EDT 2005
Table Table 13997 (Real Money)
Seat 7 is the button
Total number of players : 6
Seat 1: Mavrick101 ( $3396 )
Seat 2: craigmack86 ( $1091 )
Seat 3: NoLimtMonstr ( $725 )
Seat 6: KickerYurAce ( $638 )
Seat 7: UTAMavPoker ( $1650 )
Seat 9: Trajoutname ( $500 )
Trny:14750009 Level:5
Blinds(75/150)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Trajoutname [ 9c 4s ]
KickerYurAce: damn
craigmack86 folds.
NoLimtMonstr folds.
KickerYurAce folds.
UTAMavPoker folds.
Trajoutname is all-In [425]

[Sabrazack]

I ran them all through ICM and the first two are pretty much even, but since im in the BB soon i think that makes them pushes. I dont think villain calls with any two cards in the 9-4 hand so i think thats a push too. And in the AJ hand no one had shown strenght, so i figured worst case someone calls me with a low PP.

[Chaostracize]

Fold, fold, standard, fold.

Hand 1: You're on the bubble and you really don't have much folding equity with 4 BBs. Try to get into the money here with another shortstack at the table.

Hand 2: Too many players, too crappy of a hand, too likely you'll get called.

Hand 3: A read on the UTG player would be nice, who cares about the BB. But this is standard.

Hand 4: You get the button next hand and a get to be a little more choosy when putting the chips in. Not a lot of folding equity here. Dump this.

[Uppercut]

In hands 1,3,and 4, you have very few chips left. If this is because you just took a bad beat to leave you short-stacked, that is one thing. But if you are letting the blinds eat you up and are not making your move until you are this low, that is a completely different (and easily solvable) problem.

[ChuckNorris]

[ QUOTE ]
I ran them all through ICM and the first two are pretty much even,

[/ QUOTE ]

Really?? I think that's VERY surprising. Want to post your calculations or something? Or did you use SNGPT? Because I think that 1 and 2 are instafolds. Maybe hand nr 1 could be okay in a very tight table. But the last two hands are just fine.

[psyduck]

hand 1: fold
hand 2: fold
hand 3: of course
hand 4: oh you're in the SB. I don't like it too much because BB is a monster stack, but eh, if he has any reasonable range at all, it's fine.

[Sabrazack]

The reason i am pushing this crap is that the blinds will hit me for 1/4 of my stack the next hand. I think i have alot of fold equity here with 4xBB pushing from UTG. I did the ICM through SNGPT, it was pratty much breakeven. But then i input my stack as it would be after posting blinds next hand and then it became a clear push.

Is this stupid reasoning?

[lastchance]

[ QUOTE ]
The reason i am pushing this crap is that the blinds will hit me for 1/4 of my stack the next hand. I think i have alot of fold equity here with 4xBB pushing from UTG. I did the ICM through SNGPT, it was pratty much breakeven. But then i input my stack as it would be after posting blinds next hand and then it became a clear push.

Is this stupid reasoning?

[/ QUOTE ]
Sort of. After all, while the chips may be in the pot next hand, they still give you a discount in the pot next round, which has the effect of temprorarily giving you more stack for that one hand.

The real effect of being hit by the blinds should be somewhere in between the two earlier situations. I tend to use 1% as a factor.

BTW, I think a lot of people are calling those pushes though. Eek.

Hand 3 and 4 are very easy for me, I think definitely correct compared to waiting.

[runner4life7]

I think I might be actually pushing all of these, the last two for sure.

[runner4life7]

sweet lastchance agreed with my pushes on 3 and 4 being easy, just hit send before me, but things like that are always nice after seeing everyone folding and being so confused.

[ilya]

first one i think you gotta, second one I think i fold, third is fine barring reads, fourth is, I dunno, a push I guess.

[Pete H]

1: Push if the big stack(s) are pushing most hands. If they've been passive (not likely, but not impossible), I might wait
2: Fold
3: Push
4: Push

[Isura]

Hand 1: Fold.
Hand 2: Fold. Ew, why did you wait so long to push? Wait and see if you get anything playable in the blinds against a late position raise/push.
Hand 3: Pretty standard push.
Hand 4: Don't have much FE, but I think you to push this because people make terrible folds at the 22s.

I think they are all pushes except 2. Even a push in 2 isn't bad, except maybe metagame-wise.

1 is a good push if the BB is reasonable; this is the hand where you put some distance between you and shortie.

Unless you think they'd limp monsters, 3 is a good push.

I think 4 is an insta-push. You absolutely have some FE here, and you said you even might have credibility here with BB. True your hand is miserable, but soon your postition is going to be even more miserable. If I have any reason to believe BB is at all tight here, I'm pushing any two.

[EnderFFX]

If these are you typical chip stacks at this point in the tournament, then the problem isn't what you do in these hands it is what you are doing before. It looks like you need to be taking some stands earlier in the tournament so you have some FE. If your distribution is very high in the 3,4,5,6,7 with a bell curve type distribution then that means you simply are blinding yourself to death.

Hand 1) Just above 4BB
Hand 2) Just above 4BB
Hand 3) ok chip-wise
Hand 4) Just under 3BB

Hand 1) Have to push
Hand 2) Have to push, should have pushed on a random hand 1 or 2 hands ago so you would have better fold equity.
Hand 3) Read dependant, the early limper scares me.
Hand 4) You are too low on chips to have any FE, The BB only has to call 275 chips. (less then 2 BB) You have too fold and then you have one of two choices, make a stand when a lot of people limp in so you have a shot at really increasing your stack and becoming competitive or wait for any Ace/King/pair/two broadway and push.

I would look more toward what you are doing in your mid game (50/100, 75/150, 100/200) instead of what you are doing midgame.

Good luck.

[Sabrazack]

Believe me, these are the best opportunities i have had so far. You can get this shortstacked when you are totally card dead, and it has happened to me alot lately.

[EnderFFX]

When i go card dead during a tournament I look to push when I'm at around 5-7BB with anything on the button or the SB when it is checked to me. If the table is agressive and you don't get this opportunity (you should at the $20's) then look to make a move from early position to indicate strength.

It does you little good to get down to 400-500 chips at 75/150 with 3 other stacks, and double up. If you are card dead, and your are BB and you get min raised by the button/SB, make a push, make a stand that says your blind isn't to be messed with.

The next time you are card dead in a tournament, look around, look for who is playing agressive, who is playing timid, and who is playing straightforward. Avoid the agressive players till you have cards, always attack the timid, and bet when the straightforward checks.

NL Hold'em is not about the cards. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Sabrazack]

I have plenty of fold equity pushing 4xBB from UTG. Pushing with total trash with 7xBB from the button is almost always -EV against all but the tightest opponents, or so i think..

There seem to be alot of different opinions on these hands, i guess that means they are pretty much borderline either way.

[EnderFFX]

[ QUOTE ]
I have plenty of fold equity pushing 4xBB from UTG. Pushing with total trash with 7xBB from the button is almost always -EV against all but the tightest opponents, or so i think..

There seem to be alot of different opinions on these hands, i guess that means they are pretty much borderline either way

[/ QUOTE ]

Fold equity is not a black or white thing. When you have 7-8 BB against a big stack from the BB the big stack will fold a lot of hands. When you have 3-4 BB, you raise looks more desparate and then it occurs to the big stack to maybe call with the KTs because it doesn't hurt too much and he thinks you may be bluffing. In 3 of the 4 hands the big stack is not too hurt by your push.

Pushing with 3-4 BB gets rid of the BB when he has crap and some good hands.

Pushing with 7-8 BB gets rid of some BB when he has crap, and a lot of good hands.

My reasoning is this, you aren't going to always get good cards. An entire SnG tourney lasts like 60-90 hands. It is very possible that there will be tourneys where your hand history will be complete crap. Or that the few hands good hands you get don't get you many chips.

I like trying to turn those tourney into top 3 finishes.