becoming a disciple of Tommy Angelo

[Mikey]

sometimes I look to see, where I lose the most money in a given hand, and I see that it's with overcards when I think I'm getting the proper odds to call, but I think it's just an illusion.

Tommy Angelo wrote something that I took very much interest in and he said he "folded 87s on the button after a few callers." He also said if he missed the flop he wouldn't bet one red cent nor would he put in one red cent.

Now here is what I want to know.

I raise with AQ after a limper, everyone else folds including the blinds and only the limper calls.

The flop comes 10 4 7.

My opponent bets. Assume your opponent is typical.
Now it's on me.

I'm told the way I should play this hand would be either to call or raise to slow him down.

I think from now on, I'm going to just fold.

Explain to me why it isn't correct to fold
Explain to me why sometimes it is correct to fold.



Am I really getting the right odds to call here or are these just illusional odds.

P.S. I don't know Tommy Angelo personally but I really like what he says, and if he folds 95s in the SB with 2/3rds of a bet in, folds 87s on the button with a bunch of callers, folds AA when he's really trying to learn the game and become more disciplined. I think I'm going to adapt his ways for the time being until I can become better at this game.

Now I'm not always going to play like this, but I will for the time being.

[DanS]

Hi Mikey,
I would get ready for the short term ass kicking (statistically speaking) you're going to get while you employ this methodology. The only good thing that may come of it is that you're going to lower your variance.

I've met Tommy a coupla a times, and he's a genuinely good guy, and I believe he practices what he preaches. But what you're doing is like saying "I see that A-Rod hits .340 with 45 HRs, and he uses a 37 ounce bat (I made that part up). I think I'll use a 37 ounce bat." Well, a couple of weeks of hitting sub-Mendoza (below .200) will quickly change your mind. Tommy's got a combo of things, including a solid game plan, tilt-resistance, social graces, mojo, whatever the hell it is that lets him play for a living. You don't (not yet, at least). Stick with a 31 ounce bat.

Dan

[Mikey]

I've never batted with a 37 ounce bat. How will I ever know that I can hit .340 with 45 HRS if I never try?

I think i'll try the 37 ounce bat to see how it works for now, and then if it doesn't work i'll go back to the 31, but for now the 31 ounce bat is going to be in the dugout and I'll be carrying the 37 with me to the plate.

[DanS]

Mikey,
I'll give you credit. That's a kickass attitude (seriously!), I wish I had more of it. Just don't damn the torpedoes and go full speed ahead without thinking about how it may affect your bankroll, and other things.

Dan

P.S. If you DO end up mucking aces, I want a full report. /forums/images/icons/wink.gif

[snakehead]

against a typical (non-tricky) opponent, folding AQ in this situation is correct. the pot is small, and he could have a hand like AT or QT, leaving you with very few outs.

the 87s depends on the number of callers, but the hand isn't much of a money-maker, so not playing it isn't a bad idea.

[D.J.]

Mikey, I think you should listen to Dan. I think he's totally right on with this one, and I really like how he used the baseball analogy and I'll expand on that in a second. The thing that you don't get is that certain things work for certain people for various reasons and you'll never understand why a person does what they do b/c you don't know why they do it. You might see Tommy do something and say hey that works, I'm going to try it, but you don't know the thinking and logic that is behind the plays that he makes. Come up with your own style through your own trials and tribulations and you'll be a better player for it b/c you'll have solid reasoning behind doing what you did, not just well I saw Tommy do it so I will also. Like I said earlier to expand on the baseball thing I'll give you a real life personal example, when I first signed w/ the Cleveland Indians in '99, I really studied Manny Ramirez b/c he was one of the top hitters in the league, plus he was in my organization. I tried to change my stance to be similar to his and man did I [censored] the bed for about 3 weeks trying to hit like him and my average dropped about 60 points. Many other guys see talented players hitting a certain way and want to imitate them hoping to get their results, one guy may be tearing the cover off the ball w/ an open stance and have someone try to copy them and it just doesn't work for everyone. I hope you can see the relation here, that you shouldn't do something that works for someone else b/c you don't know why they do it. Develop your own style and maybe people will try and copy you someday.

-D.J.

[DanS]

Hey D.J.,
That's funny that you mention an open stance, because I was going to use a Mickey Tettleton/Julio France analogy, but thought the better of it.

I'm glad you got my back on this one, because I knew I wasn't speaking out of my ass but couldn't quite figure out why. I wasn't talking expectation, I was talking semantics, mojo, karma, feel, and all the intangibles which make poker/baseball great.

Dan

While we're talking 'bout things you can't quite figure out why, I'd bet you like Bull Durham as much as I do and for similiar reasons.

[mrbaseball]

I've been a disciple of Tommy before I even knew he existed /forums/images/icons/smile.gif I really believe that he and I think a lot alike. I have never had a problem bullet folding 7/8 from any position at any time. I do play it sometimes as a mix it up type move but more often than not hands like that go sailing to the muck. I play extremely tight up front and in the blinds. Sometimes /forums/images/icons/smile.gif

I never had much problem dumping overcards on a missed flop either. In fact I think overcards are the toughest thing to play. AQ with a 10 4 7 flop depends on a lot of things. Player and image dependant things. Sometimes you want to push them and sometimes you just want to move to the next hand where you may actually hit the flop. But I think Tommys point here was that if you miss the flop and fold that eventually your opponents will pick up on this and show more respect when you don't fold the flop. Then by maintaning this image with occassional whiff/folds you have a much better chance to push that AQ to victory on a missed flop.

But I really believe that everyone has to formulate their own game. Read everything you can. Steal ideas from 2+2 posters and create a game and strategy that works for you. It's just cards and people. 5 level thinking is often wasted with us all trying to out trick and out think each other. Tommys preplanned moves intrigue me and I am really trying to incorporate something along those lines into my own game.

[anatta]

Totally agree. Mucking 87s on the button even after a few limpers is no big loss. Ditto for folding AQo here for one bet heads-up against a lot of players.

[anatta]

Rather than baseball, I look at Tommy's game like hoops. I think Tommy plays like Moses Malone in short handed games, and Darrel Dawkins in the ring games.

Remember Moses? MVP's, 25 and 15 every night. Remember Chocolate Thunder? Try to without smiling. Planet Lovetron. Smashing backboards and naming his dunks. Spectacular style, some substance, but mostly just plain cool.

[tewall]

I doubt Tommy's saying to give up if you miss the flop regardless of the situation. Ciafone's rule of thumb is to be willing to take a shot with 1 or 2 opponents and sometimes, if everything's right, with 3.

Even if your opponent has a pair, you have very likely 6 outs, which would make folding on the flop terrible. Taking into account you don't know that you're behind, folding the turn is a bad idea too.

The illusionary outs situation doesn't apply to just 1 opponent. If you have several opponents, then playing on with overcards can be bad as your may make your hand and still lose as you could be out against 2 pair or other better hands than yours so that you are practically drawing dead from the flop on. With only 1 opponent, this is unlikely.

There are many possible ways to play this hand. Here's one. Call the flop and raise the turn, playing for a free showdown if you don't improve and betting the river if you do.

[Inthacup]

Ditto for folding AQo here for one bet heads-up against a lot of players.

I've read this sentence several times and can't make any sense of it.

[bernie]

youre headup against a player with multiple personalities

b

[tewall]

I think "heads up against many opponents" means "as opposed to heads up in a heads up game". Regardless, folding AQ on the flop would be an awful play. Even if you knew for sure your opponent had a pair, it would be bad.

[anatta]

I should have been more clear. A player limps, you raise with AQo, it is heads up on the flop. Your opponent bets into you. "Against a lot of players", i.e. those that fall into the predictable or "weak-tight" or even "loose-passive" spectrum of opponents, I think a FOLD is correct.

I think that if your opponent has a pair, you are getting less than 5.5:1 on a 7:1 shot, and unless you think you can get a free turn card by raising, you should fold rather than take one off to build a pair that may not even be good.

I am not saying to blindly fold this all the time, against some opponents, perhaps even most, you should raise

[anatta]

How is folding "bad" vs a pair? An ace could easily give him 2 pair, your pot odds are less than 5.5:1 after the drop, and you are getting 7:1 on your draw?

[anatta]

Mikey -

On the AQo question, you asked:

"Explain to me why it isn't correct to fold
Explain to me why sometimes it is correct to fold."

You need to ask yourself what kind of player your opponent is. Unless you feel he/she thinks you're "weak", I would be inclined to give up here.

In tough games, where you are routinely heads-up and your opponents are aggressively trying to outplay you, you should be more inclined to raise. But in low and mid limit games, I think there are more profitable situations out there, rather than throwing a bunch of money in trying to build a pair.

[**MR.MANHATTAN**]

hi, u genuinely seem like a good guy. Tommy has been a fav. writer of mine also,however it is my nature to be a little suspicious,esp. in re: to folding 7-8s on the button w6 callers for eg. or folding A-A late/on the button w everyone in,i know commerce and oi understand what u say but i have a hard time buying brother. I do believe strongly that he will and does fold those same hands if the flop misses him in a family pot. He plays in los angeles so the swings in any limit are more drastic than las vegas or your typical knowledgeable home game.... drop after the flop is good to practice in those games w/5-6-7 players betting and calling. i find in los angeles games, (played anywhere)L.A. STYLE GAMES, holding a-q s or o, with a total miss on the flop and 4-5-6 callers b4 u...........FOLD FOLD FOLD........imo

[Tommy Angelo]

Dear MM,

Thank you for the kind words. Just a couple things ...

"however it is my nature to be a little suspicious,esp. in re: to folding 7-8s on the button w6 callers"

If I didn't qualify that play with a game description and explanation well, I meant to. I have not folded those hands in that situation for years. The game I used to do that in was looser than any game I have ever seen in California or anywhere else. I'm talking off the charts insane loose, with capped flops common. And the pressure I was under to win was the most intense I ever had (minimum wage wife, with steppackage and mortgage.) I didn't fold suited connectors for one bet on the button because I wanted to, it was because I had to.

"He plays in los angeles ..."

Only if I happen to be passing through, and only to party with 2+2ers. LA is my least favorite place to play.

Tommy

[tewall]

After the opponent makes his flop bet, you're getting 6.5 to 1, right? If you make your pair, the pot should wind up being around at least 15 small bets. So you're putting in 1 bet to win 15.

It's true that it's possible you're opponent may have an Ace kicker and kill 3 of your outs. It's also possible he has a set, but there's no reason to assume this is the case. It's more likely he has nothing and you're actually ahead.

When you take into account there's no reason to assume the opponent has a pair, folding to a flop bet would be very bad.

[tewall]

The first part (folding) has already been discussed in another thread (where I'm contending you're getting much, much better than 5.5 to 1 to call), but I'd like to ask you about the second part where you recommend raising.

Why are you thinking of raising on the flop? I would be more inclined to call the flop and raise the turn. I can think of several reasons why you might want to raise the flop, and I'd be interested in your thinking.

[anatta]

tewell -

You're right, its 6.5:1. I think you made a mistake too since you have to put in more than one bet to see that 15sb payoff. You stated if you knew your opponent had a pair, folding would be "bad". I am still not sure if my opponent flashed me a Ten and said one pair, Flop is T73, and he doesn't lie when he does this, he really has one pair, that I should continue with AQ. AT and QTs are common enough limping hands, and I lose money. He redraws on me 10% of the time I hit on the turn. If AQ raises his flop bet, and an Ace hits, he probably folds, no great implied odd there. Then again, if a king hits, he might fold too...in my mind its close, but you might very well be right.

[anatta]

I might raise if I think my opponent would check to me on the turn, so I could take a free card, or position myself for a free showdown with a bet on the turn. Mabey the opponent folds a pocket underpair or second pair, which is good.

Back to the orginal problem, when you said folding AQo was "awful", I assumed you meant always bad, but maybe I don't understand your position. Some opponents will not bet into you without at least a pair after you showed strength. So folding against opponents who respect your image, aren't prone to moves, is probably correct and most certainly not "awful". In bigger games, with lots of moves and such, or if you have an weak image, then I would play back. So I think it depends on what you know about the opponent.

[tewall]

I counted 7.5 on the flop, a bet and call on the turn and river for 8 more gives 15.5 which I rounded to 15.

I said if you knew he had a pair. That's different than being flashed a T. He could have any pair. Maybe a pocket pair.

Given you don't know if he has a pair or not, calling the flop is an easy decision.

BTW I don't know if you noticed, but I answered you on the other thread as well. I was asking why you would want to raise the flop rather than call if you weren't going to fold. I'm interested in your thoughts on that.

[folded_a_monster]

mickey tettleton........fruit loops.........classic.

[tewall]

We're playing tag team on these threads!

I was wondering if the reason for the flop raise was for a free card. That's a possible option. I wouldn't (generally) raise the flop and bet the turn for a free showdown however. Instead I would call the flop and raise the turn. I think this has a much better chance of getting a low pair to fold (which would be great) and only costs a small bet more. Given the raise on the flop the opponent is getting 8.5 to 1 so it's unlikely he'll fold there, although he might if he thought he were drawing dead. However, in this situation (if he's behind you), you not really anxious for him to fold.

If you would fold AQ in this situation then your opponent would have a fantastic +EV to bet into you whenever he played you heads up. Any decent player will not limit himself to only betting when he gets a pair. You raised him pre-flop, so your most likely hand is two big cards. A flop with all low cards comes. He limped. He could easily have been paired, but you probably didn't (although you might have a big pocket pair). I don't think a player has to be particularly tough to take a shot in this situation.

I agree with you that certain opponents would only bet with a pair in this situation. In this case a fold would just be bad, not awful. The awful was under the assumption that your opponent is unknown.

[Ed Miller]

I think I just heard Sklansky groan from 1,000 miles away...

[anatta]

tewell -

I still fantastic to me that I can "talk poker" on-line with someone clear across the country (or even world), and learn this game.

"So you're putting in 1 bet to win 15."

The pot has 6.5 bets. You call. 7.5. Turn Qd, bet, raise, call. That 8sb, river 4 sb. So its 8 bets to win 19. I think.

"If you would fold AQ in this situation then your opponent would have a fantastic +EV to bet into you whenever he played you heads up. Any decent player will not limit himself to only betting when he gets a pair"

I agree, especially with your point that it doesn't take a world beater to test you here. Most of the time, I am not folding, especially on this ragged flop. Like you said, most players, not just tough ones, do not need a hand to bet into you here. You are giving a way a lot if you always fold.

However, in the games I play in, there are many players who don't notice how I play overcards or pocketpairs, they play their hand. If they have a hand (a pair, two pair, set...), they bet. If raised, they tend to call down. Not just nice old ladies taking a break from low-ball, but quite a few passive players who just don't put moves on, especially against aggressive opponents. It sounds like against these players, you still think folding is bad. I recall raising the turn on more powerful semi-bluffs than this, only to be called down by these types with one pair, not even top pair.

I think my problem is this: If I know my opponent has a pair, possibly with an Ace or a Queen kicker, and my opponent tends to call down with one pair, I still think folding on the flop is correct. However, I need to think more about this and the money that you can win if you improve, for me to be sure.

[tewall]

tewall, not tewell (no big deal).

When I was saying 1 bet to win 15 I was saying if you decided to call the flop to see a card you would be betting 1 to win 15. That is, say you decide to fold if you don't help, and you win if you do. Then you bet 1 SB to see the turn. If you help, you stand to win 15. If you don't, you fold. I'm not saying you should fold the turn (that's a separate decision), I'm saying that evaluating the decision of whether you should call the flop is an easy one as you stand to make 15 for 1 bet and it's about a 7 to 1 shot.

With 6 outs you should call down your opponent if he is at all decent as you can never be sure enough to fold to make it correct. Calling down with 6 outs is at worst a very small mistake, and it may not be a mistake at all as you may be able to get a raise in somewhere and have pot odds to chase all the way. When you take into account that you might actually be ahead, it's a safe play to just call down with 6 outs.

Now if your hand were something like Ax suited, and you thought your oponent had a pair, that's a different situation. Now you may be drawing to 3 outs and chasing would be bad. The rule of thumb I use is to fold a hand like this on the turn (still take a card off on the flop) if I think it's better than 2 to 1 that my opponent has a pair.

If there were more opponents involved, then you need to be concerned that you may be drawing dead, so if someone shows strength you need to careful. With one opponent, especially if he knows what he's doing, you have to be very careful in laying down hands.

[DanS]

I just somehow figured a post about doing your own thing had to, as a requisite to a response, include references to switch hitting catchers and sub-Mendoza line sluggers. What can I say? I think the phrase "Rob Deer" adequately brings the conversation full circle for some reason.

Dan /forums/images/icons/grin.gif

[folded_a_monster]

Anytime I have a terrible badbeat, I always say something to the effect of: "That was a bigger fluke than Brady Anderson hitting 50 home runs!" And while we're on the subject, Kevin Seitzer, Gregg Jeffries, and Pedro Guerrero.

[DanS]

Kevin Seitzer. Wow.

I'm lazy so I'm going LanceblankenshipPeteincaviliaPatlistach and see if you can one up me. And Markgubicza for extra measure.

[folded_a_monster]

OK, I'm sure this thred is interesting to no one but us, so this'll be my last post. How about Gregg Olson, Alvin Davis, Al Bumbry, Walt Weiss, Jerome Walton... and wqho could ever forget the unequalled, unbeatable, unbreakable, un toppable Chris Sabo in all his glory.