Pushing with no FE

[Newt_Buggs]

***** Hand History for Game 2513367418 *****
200/400 Tourney Texas Hold'em Game Table (NL) (Tournament 14726296) - Wed Aug 10 21:09:01 EDT 2005
Table Table 12507 (Real Money) -- Seat 1 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 1: nytdog (1305)
Seat 3: CTopher1117 (1880)
Seat 4: EaRpLuGs_13 (6315)
Seat 7: NewtBuggs (500)
CTopher1117 posts small blind (100)
EaRpLuGs_13 posts big blind (200)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to NewtBuggs [ Ks, 6h ]
NewtBuggs?

$109
decent table, fairly aggressive.
What hand range are you pushing here?

[citanul]

i'm assuming you like, pushed last hand or something and lost? or two hands ago and lost and the big stack pushed last hand?

if you're certain you are going to be called if you are pushing, i'm only pushing the top 50% of hands here i think... but there's some work to be done i think in this particular area, because while you expect to have the random hand next hand, you actually have to consider the probability that you get a hand that is actually better than the one you have (which should be like, like, the percentile that your current hand is in exactly, and stuff like this. i've been meaning to sit down with pad and pen and do some work on this exact sort of problem lately, but haven't gotten around to it. like, while the whole percentile thing is clear, there's also the fact that some hands are more better than others, and some hands are less worse than others, and stuff like that.

ok, that's very rambly and doesn't actually get to the heart of what i meant. but my answer to your question is up there. i might even push more than just the top 50% of hands here, even if i know that the guy is calling any two. like, any hand that figures to have correct odds, when called, to have been in the pot, or something.

citanul

[ChuckNorris]

T7o and better or something like that.

[TT_fold]

I think I push even more than top 50% here, because the person I'm most likely to end up heads up with is the BB, who has merely a random hand.

Here's why I hate folding a 76o-type hand and then playing my BB. The next hand, I'll have to play my random hand against the BEST hand on the table (granted, this doesn't account for the times that 2 players push or an overzealous big stack raises with junk, but it's still usually the case). Does that make sense?

I don't know how to properly quantify it, but Q7o in the BB doesn't seem so strong when it has to go to war against the single BEST hand out of three random hands.

[jgunnip]

I don't know if you will neccessarily always be facing the best hand at the table in the BB if you fold this. With the chip stacks the way they are, if you fold this hand, you will most likely be facing just the big stack and whatever random hand he has (might even get a free one here) since the medium stacks are only coming in with premium hands in hope biggie takes you out.

[eastbay]

[ QUOTE ]

I don't know how to properly quantify it, but Q7o in the BB doesn't seem so strong when it has to go to war against the single BEST hand out of three random hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

I know what you're getting at but I think it's not quite that simple.

The three don't get to compare hands and decide amongst themselves who has the best hand, and that works strongly in your favor.

UTG has to worry about getting picked off by two still to act. Everybody knows that BB is offering juicy pot odds here, so everyone wants a piece, and can go after it with a less than premium holding. This makes a re-steal pick-off more likely.

UTG+1 has the same problem, but only half as bad as UTG (1 to act, not 2).

Both of these facts add up to you not really being up against the best of three hands, but something significantly weaker on average.

eastbay

First off, you are almost for sure going allin up against the big stacks random hand, whether you push this hand and get called or call his push on the next. Given the layout, neither of the other two is going to get involved with anything less than a monster and, if they do catch one, nothing you do will have any influence.

I think you have to weigh the value of having that extra 100 in the pot from the sb vs. the chance that the sb has a decent hand and calls (it doesn't hurt his stack all that much) and then checks it down.

Now, of course, if the bb is solid then calling in the sb would be ridiculous because bb will push any two in response. But I don't play 100's and so don't really know what "decent" entails. If the sb will fold for sure then I think pushing is right because you're a smidgen above avg. hand strength and have a bit of dead money.

I also think the difference in value between pushing and folding is miniscule.

[bennies]

Q9o+ or there abouts. I like your hand too. I wouldn't push less, for one because if you fold there is still a tiny chance someone else busts this hand.

[curtains]

I definitely push here.