I thought this hand was extremely easy...

[durron597]

Just making sure you do too. Players in the blinds were tight, initial raiser was loose.

Edit: I put this in a reply but it should be in the OP. This is a stars turbo so the blinds go up much faster than they do on Party, and they are going up next hand.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t50 (7 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

UTG (t4010)
MP1 (t3310)
MP2 (t1575)
CO (t445)
Hero (t1075)
SB (t1600)
BB (t1485)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 3/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises to t445</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t1075</font>,

[citanul]

i hate it.

citanul

[Maulik]

Your posts are usually dead on.

A4 is a coinflip here ... any pocket pair...

/images/graemlins/mad.gif

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]
i hate it.

citanul

[/ QUOTE ]

Heh. Thought process: with my short stack I'm going to need to win showdowns to money anyway, plus the likely dead money makes this correct.

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]
Your posts are usually dead on.

A4 is a coinflip here ... any pocket pair...

/images/graemlins/mad.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

Why is a coinflip bad here?

[citanul]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i hate it.

citanul

[/ QUOTE ]

Heh. Thought process: with my short stack I'm going to need to win showdowns to money anyway, plus the likely dead money makes this correct.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
Why is a coinflip bad here?

[/ QUOTE ]

because your stack isn't short.

edit: and because sometimes you're way behind.

citanul

[Phill S]

There isnt enough dead money, and there is no FE.

I dont push here - but i have a coinflip-phobia early in the game so im willing to be told im wrong.

Phill
ps, with more dead money (ie 50/100 blinds to add a bit of desperation too), or with some kind of FE i dont mind pushing small pairs. Note these two things are generally mutually exclusive.

[citanul]

[ QUOTE ]
Your posts are usually dead on.

A4 is a coinflip here ... any pocket pair...

/images/graemlins/mad.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

this one was, i hope?

i personally like that the code for that smiley is colon "mad" colon.

citanul

[Maulik]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Your posts are usually dead on.

A4 is a coinflip here ... any pocket pair...

/images/graemlins/mad.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

Why is a coinflip bad here?

[/ QUOTE ]

You can't be certain you'll be lucky enough to have a coinflip here &amp; two people are still yet to act. You aren't desperate and aren't being laid the odds to play here.

[Bigwig]

[ QUOTE ]
i hate it.

[/ QUOTE ]

[Lady Dont Tekno]

You have a tiny, microscopic edge here. There will undoubtedly be much better spots later.

LDT

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]
edit: and because sometimes you're way behind.

citanul

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a Stars turbo, blinds go up every 5-8 hands or so at a fast table and 3-4 hands at a slow table. Just went and checked, they went up the next hand, I posted once and they went up again before that orbit finished.

[Maulik]

[ QUOTE ]
You have a tiny, microscopic edge here. There will undoubtedly be much better spots later.

LDT

[/ QUOTE ]

again, you can't really be that certain. villian has ~10bb so don't make assumptions.

edit: Lorinda said assume they are donkeys until proven otherwise. With that in mind this is still a terrible play.

[bluewilde]

Clearly this is going one of those threads where I'll post a stupid opinion and learn something /images/graemlins/smile.gif. Personally, I don't like this at all. OK, SB/BB probably won't join in (but I've been unpleasantly surprised by KK when I've tried to issolate a short-stacked all-in like this), but worrying about the other two guys picking up a premium hand is probably stupid.

The issue, then, is that I just don't like the fact that you're risking half your chips when it's a race or a dominated up-hill battle. The only hand you're a solid favorite against is 22 or 23, both very unlikely. Sure he's short, but he's a real threat to your stack. And he's not under insane pressure yet (+10BBs). So you're going to see AJ+ KQ or a pair that dominates you most often. On his steal pushes, he still has two overcards. You haven't put many chips in and the blinds don't amount to much dead money (I don't see tantalizing odds). I just don't think it's worth it.

[Matt R.]

I don't like it either. The blinds are too low. I probably wouldn't even do it with 50/100 blinds. 33 just isn't good enough vs. a pusher's range to be risking half your stack, even if he's loose.

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]
You have a tiny, microscopic edge here. There will undoubtedly be much better spots later.

LDT

[/ QUOTE ]

But if I win this pot I'm in much better shape, and if I lose I'm still basically in as bad shape as I was before.

[Maulik]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You have a tiny, microscopic edge here. There will undoubtedly be much better spots later.

LDT

[/ QUOTE ]But if I win this pot I'm in much better shape, and if I lose I'm still basically in as bad shape as I was before.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are in fine shape with the blinds being so low. You'll be in much worse shape for having taken a shot here rather than avoiding this 'edge' which I despite calling it and will refuse to do so.

[Phill S]

If blinds go up next hand as you say, you can fold and have 10 of them, or call with a less than 50/50 shot against his range to either have 15 or 5.

This is a case of the chips you lose being worth much more than the chips you win imo.

Phill

[Matt R.]

I'm wondering -- this is a turbo and blinds go up every 5-8 hands (durron's estimate). There was a previous thread I remember replying to where after thinking about it, it seems that the blinds increasing so rapidly may change what I would do. This is a general theory question: should you be more willing to take small edges the more quickly blinds rise? Or should you still only take into account immediate factors -- pot odds and stack sizes. I can see arguments for both. If anyone would like to provide an argument for one case or the other, I'd like to hear it. I'd prefer a logical "proof" as opposed to what you feel may be right based on intuition.

[fnord_too]

I don't think the blinds add enough dead money here. The fact that the blinds go up next hand makes me less inclined to push here, since they will be more worth stealing. Against AA-33, AKs-A2s, KQs-K9s, QJs-QTs, JTs, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, AKo-A2o, KQo-KTo, QJo-QTo, JTo, you are 46.5% to win here. It's +EV in terms of chips, but I think it is bad in terms of cashing equity.

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]
you are 46.5% to win here

[/ QUOTE ]

Hm. I didn't realize that adding the overpairs (even as a small % of his range) subtracted so much of my equity. I thought it was closer to an exactly even coinflip.

[ QUOTE ]
The fact that the blinds go up next hand makes me less inclined to push here,

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, but my FE sucks when I have 800 chips and the blinds are 75/150 (1.5 orbits from now). Of course it would be worse with 500 chips but a lot better with 1300. Maybe I'm overestimating how much better 1300 is than 800?

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
It's +EV in terms of chips,

[/ QUOTE ]

there's no way this is +EV in terms of chips. using your range, hero is 46.5%. when the blinds fold, hero has a 46.5% chance to win a total of 965, for an ev of 449. he's putting in 445. even if the blinds only play AA/KK, i'm sure that's enough to cost hero a lot more than 4 chips.

i hate this play.

OP wrote something like "if i lose, i'm not in much worse shape than if i fold."

huh? it's way better to have 10.75x than 6.3x at 50/100. for one thing, at 10.75x you can fold your blinds, see the blinds go up, and still have good FE.

[Maulik]

btw I'm probably mucking 44 w/ t480 and blinds of 25/50. I'm not sure where I start making calls for all my chips or pushing to isolate...

[bigt439]

[ QUOTE ]
if I lose I'm still basically in as bad shape as I was before.

[/ QUOTE ]

Were you exaggerating to make a point? This doesn't make any sense.

[durron597]

Alright, you guys have convinced me. Maybe I thought it was easy at the time because of tilt from a hand or two previous.

He had AQ, blinds folded and I held up.

[The Yugoslavian]

Ummm....

Yeah....

Ummm....

Your stack isn't short.

Your hand isn't good.

Your play is bad.

I'm not even going to try to 'cheer' you up this time. No positive reinforcement for you!

Ha!

Yugoslav

[MegaBet]

Just seen this...eugh!

I call out fishes in chat with plays like this /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[fnord_too]

Most suited connectors are also favored over baby pairs. That takes a bite out of your equity. (e.g. 9 /images/graemlins/club.gift /images/graemlins/club.gif is 53:47 favorite over the red threes.)