Where I fold my set...

[GrunchCan]

The opponent in this hand is extremely aggressive preflop, but extremely passive postflop.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (7 handed) http://216.119.70.224/converter/hhconverter.pl

MP2 ($25.85)
CO ($9.20)
Button ($42.60)
SB ($35.10)
BB ($23.45)
Hero ($47.50)
MP1 ($29.55)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 8/images/graemlins/club.gif. SB posts a blind of $0.10.
Hero calls $0.25, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, SB (poster) completes, BB checks.

Flop: ($0.75) 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $0.4</font>, SB calls $0.40, BB folds.

Turn: ($1.55) 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $1</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises to $6</font>, Hero folds

I was, and still am, pretty comfortable with this fold. You?

[vulturesrow]

Ni han sir, and happy birthday /images/graemlins/smile.gif Laying down a set is something you can do in NL, even at small stakes, fairly comfortably, unlike small stakes limit, where you ruthlessly assault any poster who dared to lay down a set. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[FreakDaddy]

Considering your read, it's a good laydown, but why are you betting so small on the flop?

[4_2_it]

Based upon you read of your opponent, looks like any easy laydown. He either has a straight that he was slowplaying and panicked when the 3rd diamond appeared or he hit the flush. Either way you are way behind.

I don't think you can build an argument for calling with implied odds even if you assume he will call you all-in if the board pairs on the river, but I am no expert in this area and may be missing something.

[GrunchCan]

It's a little more than 1/2 pot, and I didn't think he would call more with a draw or overcards. Is that not ok?

[GrunchCan]

[ QUOTE ]
unlike small stakes limit, where you ruthlessly assault any poster who dared to lay down a set.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yea, you can imagine how conflicted I was.

"Fold!"
"No, damnn you, push!"
"No I have to fold!"
"AAARRRGGGHHH!"
/images/graemlins/smile.gif

If he is as passive as you say he is postflop, then that's a fine fold. On the flop, I think you want to bet the pot, or not at all, if youre going for the check raise. Check raising the flop definitely is a bad idea if he is passive. He's probably not a habitual continuation bettor, and you would end up giving a free card to everyone.

Looks like a good fold to me. But when the pot is so small, I'd go ahead and make it a pot sized bet on the flop. I doubt the extra .35 gets anybody typical to fold that would call .40.

[GrunchCan]

Yes, you're right. The .40 bet was just silly.

[djoyce003]

i'm really beginning to question the wisdom of these smallish pot sized bets on the flop. villains are getting really great implied odds on some of these draws. I'm seriously considering changing my strategy up here on these type hands into overbetting the flop to see if some of these donks will still call that.....i can see the wheels on them thinking on the flop though, that "hey it's only $1 buck, and if I hit, i'm going to get paid off here, so why not call $1. I'd be interested to see if they'd call 3 or 4 in these spots instead of $1. Something to consider anyway.

[dtbog]

[ QUOTE ]

Turn: ($1.55) 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $1</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises to $6</font>, Hero folds

I was, and still am, pretty comfortable with this fold. You?

[/ QUOTE ]

Let's do some math!

When the action comes back to you, the pot contains $3.55 and you need to call $5 more.

Let's assume he has a flush. You will improve to beat him on the river 21% of the time

For you to correctly call this bet:

(-5)(0.79) + (0.21)(x) = 0
x = $18.81

Therefore, the break-even point comes when you will make $18.81 profit after hitting your boat on the river.

$3.55 plus his bet of $5 is in the pot for you to win..

$18.81 - $3.55 - $5.00 = $10.26.

Therefore, if you think he will pay you an average of $10.26 on the river when the board pairs, then you need to call on the turn. Otherwise, good fold.

If you want to think of it another way, he needs to call a 3/4 pot bet on the river (when the board pairs) 100% of the time.

Or... he needs to call 100% pot bet on the river (when the board pairs) 3/4 of the itme

Or lastly... he needs to call all-in on the river 36% (10.26/28.45 that he has left) of the time.

(Do you see where I'm going with these calculations?)

All-in-all, I think it's a good fold.. because these percentages seem a little high... but this sort of thinking helps in these situations.

If anyone needs me to explain these calculations in more detail, I certainly can.

[dtbog]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Turn: ($1.55) 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $1</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises to $6</font>, Hero folds

I was, and still am, pretty comfortable with this fold. You?

[/ QUOTE ]

Let's do some math!

When the action comes back to you, the pot contains $3.55 and you need to call $5 more.

Let's assume he has a flush. You will improve to beat him on the river 21% of the time

For you to correctly call this bet:

(-5)(0.79) + (0.21)(x) = 0
x = $18.81

Therefore, the break-even point comes when you will make $18.81 profit after hitting your boat on the river.

$3.55 plus his bet of $5 is in the pot for you to win..

$18.81 - $3.55 - $5.00 = $10.26.

Therefore, if you think he will pay you an average of $10.26 on the river when the board pairs, then you need to call on the turn. Otherwise, good fold.

If you want to think of it another way, he needs to call a 3/4 pot bet on the river (when the board pairs) 100% of the time.

Or... he needs to call 100% pot bet on the river (when the board pairs) 3/4 of the itme

Or lastly... he needs to call all-in on the river 36% (10.26/28.45 that he has left) of the time.

(Do you see where I'm going with these calculations?)

All-in-all, I think it's a good fold.. because these percentages seem a little high... but this sort of thinking helps in these situations.

If anyone needs me to explain these calculations in more detail, I certainly can.

[/ QUOTE ]

is this sort of thing useful to post, or no?

[TheWorstPlayer]

Very useful. Nice post. I almost never bet less than full pot on the flop any more and I think it is better now.

[midget23]

of course its useful considering those are the kinds of numbers we are running through our heads on each decision we make in a hand.

[Raydain]

Bad fold IMO...

First of all, you have a really strong hand that could be the best right now. But your read tells you that you are behind. If you're 100% sure he has a flush then he would certainly pay you off if you complete a boat.

How can you just disregard implied odds in this hand. At this low of stakes I can't picture anyone folding a two-card flush.

$5 more to call with around an $8 pot with $17 behind villian. Call and push on a fullhouse and check-fold on a blank. I would assume that he won't have a flush a percentage of the time making the play profitable.

It's a tough decision if you're 100% sure he has a flush. Otherwise it's pretty easy.

I hate this fold.
First of all, at these stakes I think you are giving the small blind way too much credit. I could see him having two pair, a set of fives, nines, or even fours, the ace of diamonds, or else a flush or straight.
Given this range it is an easy call. You have position, you may have him beat already, and even if you do not you have 10 outs to win.
Implied odds makes this an easy call and a terrible fold. Call the turn raise and push if you fill up on the river.

[MINETZ]

[ QUOTE ]
Bad fold IMO...

First of all, you have a really strong hand that could be the best right now. But your read tells you that you are behind. If you're 100% sure he has a flush then he would certainly pay you off if you complete a boat.

How can you just disregard implied odds in this hand. At this low of stakes I can't picture anyone folding a two-card flush.



[/ QUOTE ]
I fully agree witth these two statements.
Noah

[swedeD]

My standard minimum bet at NL25 is $1. Why bet less?? A lot of the players at NL25 don't care about pot odds (at least not from my experience). If the have a draw, top pair or whatever, and want to call a 0.40 dollar bet, they will call $1. You have to start building a nice pot.

[DoomSlice]

Multi-way, I'll often find myself overbetting the pot because it will get me HU with the draw and inflate the pot for a turn overbet.

[ QUOTE ]

is this sort of thing useful to post, or no?

[/ QUOTE ]

Great post, thank you.

[stu-unger]

for all of those advocating a call what happens if the card that fills up also makes a 4 flush?

nice fold!

[amoeba]

bet the flop for more, check behind on the turn.

people please. check behind on the turn when you have a redraw and a scare card comes.

he gave you a big gift with that check. take it.

[ QUOTE ]
bet the flop for more, check behind on the turn.

people please. check behind on the turn when you have a redraw and a scare card comes.

he gave you a big gift with that check. take it.





[/ QUOTE ]

I like this actually and almost posted the same advice earlier. I realize that it potentially allows him to outdraw you, but I think that's a risk you should take here, especially if you don't feel you can call a raise on the turn. By checking, you're are taking a free card with a good number of outs to what will surely be the best hand, and furthermore, the best hand against what might very well be a huge holding by Villain which would mean a huge pay off. And assuming the fourth card to the flush doesn't hit (assuming the fourth one doesn't make your boat), you're inducing a bluff by him plenty of times which you can call assuming it's not too big. If he checks the river after you've checked the turn, you can safely value bet the river, which he'll likely call if he has anything since you've shown weakness. He certainly wouldn't check a flush on the turn and river. So I like the idea of taking the free card.

[silvershade]

Firstly i agree that you should probably check the turn after him given the scare card. Once you've bet and been raised, given that he's passive post flop I think that this is a good fold.... I know I fold here for sure.

I think you can only call this if you have a good read that he's likely to be bluffing at the 3rd flush card or that he will bet big on the river even if the board pairs, given his passivity I dont think he's bluffing nor do I think implied odds justify a call.

[Tuben]

Nice fold.

Bu if you are going to play 88 utg so raise pre flop .Hate to limp like that and you should alos.

But maybe you where mixin it upp but i hope ou rise somtimes whit 88 utg.

[punter11235]

You made 2 mistakes here.
a)betting small on the flop
b)betting the turn

a) is mistake because if you want win sth with this hand you should start to build the pot right there

b) is more serious. General principle is : if you have good hand which can improve on the river but you have to fold after raise you should check. Common similair situation is when you have Ah Kc on As7h2h9h board and your opponent check to you; you check behind.

Best wishes !

[punter11235]

[ QUOTE ]
is this sort of thing useful to post, or no?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think not all posters here think in this way and its certainly useful to show the light here.