Higher $/hr by going for coinflips @ Lvl1-> Your $/hr + #10 finishes?

[AA suited]

Lorinda says she goes for coin flips at lvl1. If she hits, her chances of ITM improve significantly. if she loses, then she'll just start a new game. she says her $/hr is higher with this method.

She even provided a mathematically proof of it. But i cant find that thread /images/graemlins/frown.gif

Anyway, my 9th + 10th place finishes total 11% /images/graemlins/ooo.gif in my last 800 $55's. ITM = 36.1%, ROI = 16.4%.

I've been pushing with AK if re-raised, and calling all-in with AKs/TT+ and going for the coin flip at lvl1

theorectically, an roi of 16.4% = $36/hr if quad tabling and assuming each quad takes an hr.

But according to Aleo's SnG spreadsheet, I'm making $53/hr. /images/graemlins/confused.gif

what are your 9th and 10th place finishes, roi and $/hr?

[Nottom]

I think this works much better at the lower buyins ... at the 100s you never seem to be in a coinflip with those hands unless you are against a real donk.

[45suited]

[ QUOTE ]
I think this works much better at the lower buyins ... at the 100s you never seem to be in a coinflip with those hands unless you are against a real donk.

[/ QUOTE ]

I know that Ilya always talks abou this (increasing $ / hr this way), so I've recently started doing this as an expirement myself on the 11s and 22s.

The only problem is that the play is SO bad that I honestly don't know if it's to my advantage to take coinflips even as a slight favorite. Maybe it is in $ / hr terms (I have a very small sample size since I started doing this. Just under 100 games.)

But I really hate the variance. One good thing is that I'm getting a sick # of 1sts as opposed to before. In 20 games the other day, I only had 8 ITMs, but my distribution was 5 firsts and 3 thirds.

I really am interested to see how this goes myself...

[Lori]

[ QUOTE ]
lorinda says she goes for coin flips at lvl1. If she hits, her chances of ITM improve significantly. if she loses, then she'll just start a new game. she says her $/hr is higher with this method.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have claimed I thought the $/hr would be higher, and have mentioned it as an option. I've often been in the position where I've prefered to take the ROI over hourly rate due to bankroll considerations.
I don't believe I have provided proof, although I would be very interested in seeing some.

Lori

[Newt_Buggs]

my main concern is the rake

[AA suited]

whoops.. meant Ilya, not Lori /images/graemlins/smile.gif

no wonder why i couldnt find that post that had the math /images/graemlins/blush.gif

newt- Ilya's calcs included the rake, and it still came ahead. btw, how r u doing in the 100's?

edit: i still cant find that frigging math post

[Apathy]

I think you make this post once a month.

[ilya]

[ QUOTE ]
whoops.. meant Ilya, not Lori /images/graemlins/smile.gif

no wonder why i couldnt find that post that had the math /images/graemlins/blush.gif

newt- Ilya's calcs included the rake, and it still came ahead. btw, how r u doing in the 100's?

edit: i still cant find that frigging math post

[/ QUOTE ]

Oh no....I am putting on my flame-retardant suit. Thanks a bunch, AA! /images/graemlins/crazy.gif /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[AA suited]

ah... here it is:

Coinflip math (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&Number=2906108&page=&view=&s b=5&o=&vc=1)

[Newt_Buggs]

Interesting post, but there are a couple of things that I think need to be considered:
-he used a value of 1.9 for doubling up, ICM puts it at 1.844
-assuming a 20% ROI is fine for someone who's easily beating the lower limits, but there aren't many that this would apply to in the $55s+
-This doesn't apply very well to flipping coins with AK specifically because AK is an underdog against pockets. AK against 88-QQ wins 43.8% and AKs wins 46.6%.

[raptor517]

i dont like the idea in general, as you dont know you are in a coinflip. however, assuming you took AK up against 99-QQ, would it be worth it??? well, it depends on the number of dead chips you get in there from the other players as well, but assume u take a dead on 50/50 with no dead chips? i duno if i like it. i rather just play solid and dominate and keep that low variance style goin at the low limits. holla

[GrekeHaus]

[ QUOTE ]
Interesting post, but there are a couple of things that I think need to be considered:
-he used a value of 1.9 for doubling up, ICM puts it at 1.844
-assuming a 20% ROI is fine for someone who's easily beating the lower limits, but there aren't many that this would apply to in the $55s+
-This doesn't apply very well to flipping coins with AK specifically because AK is an underdog against pockets. AK against 88-QQ wins 43.8% and AKs wins 46.6%.

[/ QUOTE ]

Two more things:

1. It doesn't take into account the times when you're way behind.

2. ICM is based on the assumption that all players are at an equal skill level. If a players is a 20% ROI player, then his percentage of the prize pool is actually about 12%, not 10%. Thus, you're giving up an extra 2% the times you lose the coinflip.

Edit: I'm a retard, it does account for #2

[ilya]

[ QUOTE ]

-This doesn't apply very well to flipping coins with AK specifically because AK is an underdog against pockets. AK against 88-QQ wins 43.8% and AKs wins 46.6%.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, this objection at least I can answer....at the lower limits, I think opponents call with AQ and worse non-pairs often enough to compensate for the times they have a pair. On balance I think it's fair to call it a coinflip, especially since you are usually getting a slight overlay.

as for the others...

ROI, yeah, not so applicable to people playing $55+ I guesss...although there seem to be a few pulling 20%+ even at those levels. However, being as good as they are, I imagine they have already resolved this question to their own satisfaction.
Oh yeah, the ROI I assume actually isn't 20%, it's 18.2%. Small difference, but makes it all more clearly applicable to low-limit winners.

As far as ICM saying that doubling up puts you at 1.844...I don't really know how to make a rigorous argument about this, but it seems to me that ICM underestimates the value of doubling up.
Also someone said that if your ROI is 20% your initial stack will be worth not 10 but 12% of the prize pool, and so you'll be losing extra when you bust. I don't think that's a valid objection really, because if it's true that 800 chips gives you 12%, then surely it's also true than 1600 chips gives you more than it would to the "average" player. if anything, having a bigger stack figures to amplify the effect of skill.