Sick bubble call

[45suited]

This was the minimum hand I think I should have called with here:

Seat 10 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 5: thpokerman ( $255 )
Seat 10: BillyDick60 ( $4525 )
Seat 7: HERO ( $1035 )
Seat 9: qbler101 ( $2185 )

Blinds(100/200)

** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to HERO [Qs Qh ]
qbler101 folds.
BillyDick60 raises [1100].
thpokerman folds.
HERO is all-In [835]

SB had 155 left after posting.

[Ixnert]

Unless big stack was literally never raising, I'd call here pretty much 100% of the time. But you're right, not with much less, maybe jacks.

[se2schul]

What's the buy-in?
If this is one of the low levels ($22-33) like I play, I'd even call with JJ and expect to be way ahead most times.

[durron597]

Yea, I like it, you're pretty much guaranteeing yourself 3rd if you fold here and a decent button is pushing w/any two.

[MeanGreenTT]

The more I think about this hand, the longer I ride the fence...

My initial reaction is to JAM with the Queens. You have 5xbb and hold 1/2 the chips 2nd does. I'm happy to get in here EVERY time! If you double, you have a legit shot.

THEN.....

I see that the upcoming BB with be nearly all-in on the next hand, pot committed hands down. I could play it safe and "fold into 3rd" but if the short-stack happens to get lucky, you're still looking for a hand that gives you the best chance to double....which leads me right back to my gut reaction.

Hope it turned out for ya!

[1C5]

Yeah I call here also. JJ I may fold.

Then I laugh when he shows A2o and hits an A to knock me out.

[45suited]

Sorry, it was a PP $11.

Button actually had a better hand than I expected. He had A6o, my hand held up.

What's the worst hand to call with here? JJ would have been borderline... yuck. I probably would have called with JJ as well due to the ridiculous probable raising range of bigstack. I hate folding when the shorty then has the freedom to call with any two and get lucky... next thing you know, I'm in a dogfight for 3rd. Hell, I don't know...

[djj6835]

[ QUOTE ]
What's the buy-in?
If this is one of the low levels ($22-33) like I play, I'd even call with JJ and expect to be way ahead most times.



[/ QUOTE ]
I think the higher the buy in, the more likely it is that you are way ahead here.

[Ixnert]

At an $11, this is very likely to NOT be any two. Any ace, any pair and a smattering of other hands at a good guess -- unless you know pusher to be a good player. I call there with JJ+, AK-AQ (because of the high likelihood I'll see an ace).

At a $22, similar but remove AQ. At a $33 or $55, QQ+ only. I don't play any higher than that, but at higher limits, I might actually add JJ back in (because of the drastically increased likelihood raiser is on any two).

[rydazzle]

[ QUOTE ]
Unless big stack was dealt AA or KK every time, I'd call here pretty much 100% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

FYP

[45suited]

[ QUOTE ]
I call there with JJ+, AK-AQ (because of the high likelihood I'll see an ace).

[/ QUOTE ]

Never in a million years would I call with AK or AQ here.

[jedinite]

[ QUOTE ]
I think the higher the buy in, the more likely it is that you are way ahead here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Really? My instint was opposite - that higher buy-ins are less likely to go all-in with a 5x BB raise without something really big when the likely bubble-er is going to be pot committed all-in after posting next hand.

Tough play either way.

You're likely ahead 2-1 here against Ax or Kx and I don't know that I'm going to risk bubbling in this scenario as "only" a 2-1 favorite given that the next hand the shortstack is all-in with any two.

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]

Never in a million years would I call with AK or AQ here.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you had played with this Villian before and you thought he was pushing any A any K 88+ would you call with AK?

[nykenny]

[ QUOTE ]
(because of the drastically increased likelihood raiser is on any two).

[/ QUOTE ]

doubtful.

i just recently started experimenting with sngs and i am only playing 109 and 215s. the people i have come accross aren't as inventive as you might like to otherwise believe.

in a steal situation like this, i doubt he will raise too liberally. he would most likely leave the SB to hero if he doesn't have much of a hand. IMO. if he is smart by any measure.

- Kenny

[nykenny]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Never in a million years would I call with AK or AQ here.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you had played with this Villian before and you thought he was pushing any A any K 88+ would you call with AK?

[/ QUOTE ]

why would he push with any K? as a big stack?

- Kenny

[the_joker]

Aces, maybe kings.

[UMTerp]

I'd push with any K. Why wouldn't he? He assumes you're folding just about anything, and he's better than random against the little stack with some dead money in the pot. Plus it's not the end of the world for him if the little stack doubles or triples up. More time to exploit the bubble.

Heck, my push range there (as the big stack) is something like:

Any pair, any ace or king, any two cards 8 or higher, and connectors down to 76 (suited or not).

If the villain is good, he has a VERY wide range of hands there.

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]

Heck, my push range there (as the big stack) is something like:

any two cards

[/ QUOTE ]

FYP

At least, if I think the SB will fold ever.

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
Really? My instint was opposite - that higher buy-ins are less likely to go all-in with a 5x BB raise without something really big when the likely bubble-er is going to be pot committed all-in after posting next hand.


[/ QUOTE ]

a decent player knows that the moderate stack (hero) will fold almost anything to avoid bubbling.

[UMTerp]

I won't push with the very worst hands there just because of the likelihood that SB will call, but the big stack's range there (and even moreso at higher levels, not the other way around like some of you are saying) is MUCH MUCH wider than a lot of you are giving him credit for.

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]
I won't push with the very worst hands there just because of the likelihood that SB will call, but the big stack's range there (and even moreso at higher levels, not the other way around like some of you are saying) is MUCH MUCH wider than a lot of you are giving him credit for.

[/ QUOTE ]

With the dead money in the pot if the SB calls and the BB folds I am extremely happy to get allin against him with 72o.

[UMTerp]

I find you start geting called a lot when you don't want to be if you do something like that at the lower levels.

Pot-odds wise, I certainly won't argue though.

[flytrap]

You MUST call here, for many reasons. First off, it's not the end of the world to get 4th. And getting third is nice, but when you get good opportunities to win, you need to take them. By folding, you're playing for 3rd, with no guarantee of actually getting it, since the short stack could get lucky. It's not all that unlikely that the short stack will get lucky, as the hand he will be facing when all-in probably won't be that good. You'll feel absolutely sick if you fold QQ there and shorty doubles up. If folding were much more likely to assure third, like maybe if shorty only had t20 or something, then maybe a fold is in order.
By calling, you are giving yourself a real shot at winning the tourney, but of course you may finish 4th that way. In the long run, calling and playing for 1st is by far the better play, but if you can't handle finishing 4th, then by all means fold, as it gives you a better chance of finishing in the money.

[jedinite]

[ QUOTE ]
a decent player knows that the moderate stack (hero) will fold almost anything to avoid bubbling.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sure - but can't you also assume that the agressor assumes the hero knows that, and is thus only going to make the move all-in with a bigger than average range of hands? Maybe I'm over-thinking it with the addition of the small stack going out next hand (i.e. over-emphasizing that factor), but in the shoes of the agressor I could see the SB calling with medium PP or better assuming I'm leading out with any two just trying to exploit the bubble. But maybe I'm just being weak/tight /images/graemlins/blush.gif

[UMTerp]

[ QUOTE ]
Sure - but can't you also assume that the agressor assumes the hero knows that, and is thus only going to make the move all-in with a bigger than average range of hands? Maybe I'm over-thinking it with the addition of the small stack going out next hand (i.e. over-emphasizing that factor), but in the shoes of the agressor I could see the SB calling with medium PP or better assuming I'm leading out with any two just trying to exploit the bubble. But maybe I'm just being weak/tight

[/ QUOTE ]

Obviously there's a certain degree of "thinking on other levels" going on, particularly at the higher levels, but there's a point where you just can't outthink the math. According to ICM, if the big stack pushes and SB folds, in order for BB's call to be $EV-neutral, he'll need to win the showdown 73.34% of the time. So even if the BB is absolutely certain the button's range is ANY TWO CARDS, there's only a select few hands with which he can correctly make a call. This range is TT or better, and does not include AK.

Power of the big stack on the bubble...

[djj6835]

[ QUOTE ]
Really? My instint was opposite - that higher buy-ins are less likely to go all-in with a 5x BB raise without something really big when the likely bubble-er is going to be pot committed all-in after posting next hand.



[/ QUOTE ]

We can assume the higher the buy in the better the player. The better the player, the wider range of hands he has when raising here. This is because of the reason you just stated, one very short stack being present on the bubble.

[Newt_Buggs]

Did I miss it or am I the first one saying fold here? Well, not necessarily but if the big stack hasn't been abusing the bubble and the SB is relatively loose I'm folding. My main concern with folding that ICM doesn't address is that if the SB is stupid and folds (he should call with a wide range) and then folds the next hand you have to suck down a big blind while still on the bubble.

I agree that at a higher buy in this would be an easier call. The SB is more likely to call and get knocked out if you fold and the BS is more likely to be pushing most hands.

[TWINUNO]

Arent the players in lower levels actaully tighter around the bubble since they dont uderstand the concept. But might spite call ith less?

[djj6835]

[ QUOTE ]
Arent the players in lower levels actaully tighter around the bubble since they dont uderstand the concept. But might spite call ith less?



[/ QUOTE ]

For the most part yes, but I think when there is a really short stack as is the case here, your much less likely to see a "spite call".

I call. I think you have to play for first. The times that you get knocked out in fourth, will be more than made up for by the times you finish first. By folding and most likely sneaking into third place, I think you're giving up money you would have won by geting second or first.

[djoyce003]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think the higher the buy in, the more likely it is that you are way ahead here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Really? My instint was opposite - that higher buy-ins are less likely to go all-in with a 5x BB raise without something really big when the likely bubble-er is going to be pot committed all-in after posting next hand.

Tough play either way.

You're likely ahead 2-1 here against Ax or Kx and I don't know that I'm going to risk bubbling in this scenario as "only" a 2-1 favorite given that the next hand the shortstack is all-in with any two.

[/ QUOTE ]

Your instinct is wrong. At the higher levels you are liable to be up against a thinking opponent that realizes you basically have to fold anything to his push unless it's aces because someone else is about to be all in in the blinds....your call is way negative EV with just about any hand other than QQ/KK/AA because of the risk of ruin here. On the other hand, at a donktastic 10+1 table, the idiot on the button probably goes, hey I got an ace, all in!