3 Handed Question $50 bodog

[Schmitt15]

3 people left, stack sizes (before posting) are:
me (bb)-5k
button -3k
sb -2k
blinds: 400/800

Button raises to 2000. He is a fairly conservative player and I have to give him credit for some type of a hand. Most likely about K9 or better. The small blind calls all-in and I am in the big blind with A /images/graemlins/spade.gif5 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif. What's the play?

[bennies]

Wow, where did you find these awesome blinds?

I fold despite them though...

[Wes ManTooth]

fold

[FlyWf]

BoDog has the "Alright kids, let's wrap this up" 400/800=12.5 BB on the table level.

And fold.

[Schmitt15]

I didn't know that this was such an easy fold. Let's say I decide to call. By calling I mean playing the pot allin because button only has 1000 left. There are 4 outcomes:
1. I win the entire pot and the sng.
2. Button wins the entire pot and I am heads up down 2k to 8k.
3. SB wins main pot and I win side pot. Heads up down 4k to 6k.
4. SB wins main pot and button wins side pot. Still 3 handed with former sb at 6k and myself and former button at 2k.

Almost all of these situations are pretty good for me with #4 only being slightly unfavorable. Plus the pot is laying me about 2.6-1 (assuming I put the button all-in) and I'm about 25% to win (is this % accurate?) if my ace is live.

I think it is a fold, although I could somewhat understand why you would think it is not. The button is raising and you say he has been conservative, and then the SB calls him which probly means that you are losing badly. The ace is only three outs, and I think a five may not help you. I would say at best you are a 40% to win this, much likely much much worse. Not worth it. They could both be holding an ace with lower kicker and you would still only be a 40% fave. Fold.

[Schmitt15]

I forgot to mention that, based on sb's previous play, I wouldn't be surprised if he turned over a J9 type hand here.

ps are u at gtown right now hoyasnaxa? I'll be there this fall

[Schmitt15]

I ended up calling but I'm the only one out of 5 that have posted that thinks it's a good play. Was my call that bad?

[beetyjoose]

I would fold. But after you mentioned that he was a loose player who would raise with anything, it may not be that loose of a call after all.

[jedinite]

IMO you're already in good position to win given that if #2 takes #3 you're still even in chips, so I don't buy the "I really want to knock him out so I can win" scenario. You've still got time to outplay your remaining opponent even with the ridiculous blind levels. Personally I'm not risking half my stack here with A5o, i'm waiting for a better opportunity or to be the agressor.

Although the blind levels somewhat mitigate that instinct to fold, so I don't think the call is terrible - just so-so. Just my $0.02

You're .29 EV if you're up against K9o and a small pocket pair, .37 EV up against K9o and JTs. If your ace is low-dominated (A6, A7) you're around .25 EV thanks to a high chance to split. If your ace is high dominated (AT or better) you're down to .20 EV