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08-10-2005, 09:58 AM
Hi, I have lurked here for some time and figured someone who is better at math than me could help with this.

I have to admit that I have been suspicious of the legitimacy of the randomness of the online poker room that I play in. But I've enjoyed my share of success in STT's so I don't worry about it too much.

Last night I witnessed A royal flush, which was cool. It was alao the 4th on I've seen in 3 months. I play about 5 games a night 3-5 times a week. Seems a bit high but I don't really know the frequency that I should expect to see them.

The part that struck me with this one though is that it was immediatly followed by a hand with two sets of pocket Aces with only 7 people at the table.

So after all that what I'm really looking for is what are the odds of what I saw happening.

By the way this is in no way to try to prove a conspiracy. It just seems that the odds would be enormous for this to happen.

Thanks

Nottom
08-10-2005, 10:08 AM
The odds are enormous against pretty much everything that happens at a poker table.

08-10-2005, 10:19 AM
Well that was helpful, thanks.

downtown
08-10-2005, 10:54 AM
Downtown's Handy Response Form v.001 (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Number=3054673&page=1&view=colla psed&sb=5&o=14&fpart=1)

------------------------------------
In response to your post, as a poster on this forum I would like to advise you of the following:

[ ] Read the FAQ
[ ] Use the Search Function
[x] It's Just Variance
[ ] Your Sample Size is Too Small
[ ] This is a Bad Beat Post!
[ ] You Might Suck
[x] Party is Rigged
[ ] Pwn3d!
[ ] Push
[ ] Fold Preflop
[ ] It's Not Close

Note:

08-10-2005, 11:27 AM
Sorry if I wasn't clear. I don't play at Party. I'm not trying to prove rigged or not. I just wanted to know the odds of seeing these two hands in a row from someone who knew how to figure it out.

Since I'm new to the forum I figured I'd try to be a little personable instead of just a nuts and bolts question. Sorry to have bothered.

downtown
08-10-2005, 11:34 AM
It's the same odds that you would see and random, specific hand that you picked out two times in a row. If you want to know the odds you will see two remarkably unlikely hands in a row, pick the odds for something remarkably unlikely (say 1/2000, or maybe 1/10000 if you're not easily impressed) and multiply it by each other. Whammo. The odds.

What are the odds that XYZ would happen in a row. I don't know. It's random. This is the best response you're gonna get.

08-10-2005, 01:40 PM
Well what I was looking for was odds of a 7 person table hitting Royal Flush (650,000 - 7 is what I've seen, but I don't know if thats true for Holdem), multiplied by chances of the same table on the next hand being dealt AA (220-7), times chances of a second player having an AA (I don't know what this number is since there are less combinations of cards).

If someone could fill in the blanks for me, or correct whichever numbers I have wrong, I would appreciate it. I just thought it would be intesresting to figure out. If this post pisses you off please just go on to the next one. I'll try to do better next time.

Thanks

AaronBrown
08-10-2005, 07:25 PM
There are 133,784,560 7-card Poker hands. 4,324 of them are Royal Flushes. You can't just multiply 4,324 by 7 to get the probability of at least one player in a seven handed game having a Royal Flush, the computation is a bit complictaed. It comes to 0.000217, or 1 in 4,609.

The odds of one player getting pocket Aces in hold'em is 1/221. Given that he does it, the chance of the next player also getting pocket Aces is 1/1,225. With 7 players there are 21 pairs of players, so the overall probability is 21/(221*1,225) = 0.000078. That's only one third as likely as the Royal Flush. It's getting four specific cards out of four, instead of five out of seven with four ways to do it.

08-11-2005, 10:08 AM
Thank you very much for the effort. I can't say I under stand the royal flush calculation, but I'm sure your better prepared to handle it than I am.

It took me several times reading the AA AA scenario to compredend it, but I think I get that one.

Thank you Aaron

TaintedRogue
08-12-2005, 01:29 AM
[ QUOTE ]

Last night I witnessed A royal flush, which was cool. It was alao the 4th on I've seen in 3 months. I play about 5 games a night 3-5 times a week. Seems a bit high but I don't really know the frequency that I should expect to see them.

The part that struck me with this one though is that it was immediatly followed by a hand with two sets of pocket Aces with only 7 people at the table.

By the way this is in no way to try to prove a conspiracy. It just seems that the odds would be enormous for this to happen.

[/ QUOTE ]

When the Borgata opened in Atlantic City, I had just sat down at in a juicy 6/12 game and had only played 2 orbits, when, UTG I was dealt JJ. I flopped a set and won.
The very next time I was UTG, I was dealt JJ, did not flop a set, but won.
Then, on the very next time I was UTG, I was dealt JJ for third time in a row UTG, and flopped a set again and won.
Now, add in the following factor:
On each of those hands, the betting/raising was so strong preflop and postflop, that on the turn, the only opponent I had was the big blind on all three hands.
On one hand, he had AA. On another he flopped a set of 8s and on the third he flopped two pair to his 65s, which was the hand in which I did not flop a set but did improve to two pair on the turn, giving me the best 2 pair.
I don't know what the odds of that happening are, but I'm willing to bet it will be a long time, if ever, that it happens to me again and a shortwhile before I read about a story from someone that is just as wild.
I am not making up my story.