More Fantasy Football Musings

[Sluss]

Making some lists for my upcoming drafts with standard scoring: 4 pts passing 6 pts rush/rec TDs. Ten man leagues. 1pt every 10 yards rush/rec, 1 pt ever 25 yards passing, 1pt per reception.

1. Ahman Green pros:he is in a contract year. cons:worse offensive line, taking too many hits, wearing down, Packers not able to run as much with a bit of a down year, Davenport a viable backup. I hate breaking my rule of dropping guys in my rankings that are in a contract year.

2. How will JP Losman be in Buffalo? Can't wait to see him in a few pre-season games. What will his repore be with Lee Evans and Eric Moulds. All of this effects who might be the 3rd, 4th, or 7th running back on my list Willis McGahee. If the Bills can't throw, I don't like McGahee with 9 men in the box on every play.

3. Is it worth moving up Mushin Muhammad? I know it was one pre-season game against the Dolphins. Not why I was thinking of moving him up. I was just thinking about the last time Ron Turner was running the Bears offense. While I don't think that this year will produce numbers like that, I do think Rex Grossman is a better quarterback than Erick Kramer. And who the hell else are they going to throw the ball to. So if there are 12 balls a game game thrown at Muhammad I have to think he will catch a bunch of them.

4. Tiki Barber and Deuce McAlister are my busts of the year.

5. What the hell am I going to do with Jamal Lewis? I think he may be a top 5 running back again this year, but for some reason 4 months in jail followed by ankle surgery, followed by 2 months in a halfway house scares me.

6. I don't think I have to even think about taking a quaterback until the 6th round.

Thoughts?

[The Armchair]

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1. Ahman Green pros:he is in a contract year. cons:worse offensive line, taking too many hits, wearing down, Packers not able to run as much with a bit of a down year, Davenport a viable backup. I hate breaking my rule of dropping guys in my rankings that are in a contract year.


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I'm also low on Ahman. Losing offensive linemen = bad for RB.

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2. How will JP Losman be in Buffalo? Can't wait to see him in a few pre-season games. What will his repore be with Lee Evans and Eric Moulds. All of this effects who might be the 3rd, 4th, or 7th running back on my list Willis McGahee. If the Bills can't throw, I don't like McGahee with 9 men in the box on every play.


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Bledsoe was average at best last year. Losman is not going to be significantly worse. I'd not downgrade McGahee, but I would worry a bit about Moulds and Evans.

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3. Is it worth moving up Mushin Muhammad? . . . So if there are 12 balls a game game thrown at Muhammad I have to think he will catch a bunch of them.


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He's a good #2 WR, but there are many better receivers to fill that spot. Off the top of my head, there are at least 15 guys I take at WR before MM, plus all three of the big TEs.

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4. Tiki Barber and Deuce McAlister are my busts of the year.


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Tiki should be fine. He was able to rush for a bunch of yards on a terrible passing team last year; he's a young 29 because he didn't play much his first few years; Eli should be better; Plaxico will help. Goal line/short-yardage backs do tend to steal TDs, but three or four is the standard amount. Even if they get six TDs, at least two would have been going to the QB (sneak) or TE/tackle-eligible types.

Deuce is a boom or bust runner who always is liable to be a bust. He's still worth taking, though, because when he's hot, he's insanely so.

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5. What the hell am I going to do with Jamal Lewis? I think he may be a top 5 running back again this year, but for some reason 4 months in jail followed by ankle surgery, followed by 2 months in a halfway house scares me.


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If you get him, grab chester Taylor in a late round. (He'll be there.) Taylor is one of those highly competent backups who, if playing due to starter injury, is a worthwhile fantasy starter. The bigger problem with Lewis is that the Ravens may force him into action at 75%, giving you an ineffective fantasy starter and a pine-riding backup. That's reason to wait until the second round to draft Lewis, but not reason to not take him there.

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6. I don't think I have to even think about taking a quarterback until the 6th round.


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In a ten-team league, I'd take Peyton with any pick in this first round after the 4th, and maybe even with the 4th. Anyone else, and the sixth round may be too early. After Peyton, the drop off to the next teir is significant, and the next two to four QBs will come off the board quickly thereafter.

After that, you get a lot of QBs who are roughly the same. They'll start to go in runs. But at this point, only five teams other than you will need a QB, and another two or three will grab a backup. Being _very_ pessimistic, 15 QBs will be gone if you wait until round 8 or 9.

Without fail, the 16th QB is a perfectly acceptable fantasy started, and probably only 4 TDs (over the course of a season) worse than the guy you'd grab at 6. On the other hand, the WR/RB you'd pass up at 6 to grab that QB is much much better than the one you'll get three or even two rounds later.

[Sluss]

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He's a good #2 WR, but there are many better receivers to fill that spot. Off the top of my head, there are at least 15 guys I take at WR before MM, plus all three of the big TEs.

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I originally had Muhammad as my #22 wideout. I've moved him up ahead of guys like Michael Clayton, Jerry Porter, Steve Smith, Darrell Jackson, Lee Evans and Laveranues Coles.

I'm not so sure I like Heap as a third or fourth round TE. I think Gonzo and Gates are the only two who are worth the third round move (I'm sure they will both go in the third of my two big money drafts). Might just be because Heap burned me last year. /images/graemlins/blush.gif

[The Armchair]

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He's a good #2 WR, but there are many better receivers to fill that spot. Off the top of my head, there are at least 15 guys I take at WR before MM, plus all three of the big TEs.

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I originally had Muhammad as my #22 wideout. I've moved him up ahead of guys like Michael Clayton, Jerry Porter, Steve Smith, Darrell Jackson, Lee Evans and Laveranues Coles.

I'm not so sure I like Heap as a third or fourth round TE. I think Gonzo and Gates are the only two who are worth the third round move (I'm sure they will both go in the third of my two big money drafts). Might just be because Heap burned me last year. /images/graemlins/blush.gif

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WRs are fine as is. I thnk you are undervaluing DJax and Smith significantly, though.

Third WR is Witten. Heap is four, because he's no longer the clear #1 in the passing game and potentially falls to #3.

[SossMan]

are you down on Alge this year? seems like most have him at #3 TE, I have whitten, clark, and heap all above him.

[brettbrettr]

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are you down on Alge this year? seems like most have him at #3 TE, I have whitten, clark, and heap all above him.

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Heap is still hurt. They said he'll be ready for the start of the season but who knows. Witten I'd agree with. Clark, prob not just b/c of the other options there.

[Jack of Arcades]

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are you down on Alge this year? seems like most have him at #3 TE, I have whitten, clark, and heap all above him.

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I consider him the #4 TE after Antonio, Witten, and Tony.

[Sluss]

I don't understand the love for Witten this year. Considering Bledsoe hasn't thrown to a tight end consistently since Ben Coates.

He had good final numbers and was consitent throughout the year with two SDB games ( Week 12 1 17, Week 1 3 17) and 4 "Antonio Gates" games right in a row ( Week 7 8 112 1, Week 8 9 84 1, Week 9 6 97, Week 10 9 133 2) His other nine games (I never count Week 17) were of the 5 catches 61 yard variety. These numbers make him about equal with Shockey, Crumpler, Heap and McMichael. Good, but not waste a third round pick on good.

[brettbrettr]

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Considering Bledsoe hasn't thrown to a tight end consistently since Ben Coates.

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What does Bledsoe have now that he hasn't since Coates?

[The Armchair]

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I don't understand the love for Witten this year. Considering Bledsoe hasn't thrown to a tight end consistently since Ben Coates.


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Tuna likes TEs.
Bledsoe is immobile.
There are no other decent receivers.
Witten has shown the ability to be a great TE. He's also young, and it makes sense that he blossomed when he did.

[brettbrettr]

Yeah, I was getting at the Tuna link.

Umm, saying there's no other decent WRs on Dallas is ignoring one Keyshawn Johnson. No, he's not as good as he thinks he is. Yes, he's a very valueable guy to have.