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Mason Malmuth
03-21-2003, 11:53 PM
Hi Everyone:

According to the news announcers, there are now approximately 30 oil wells on fire in Iraq. Of course they also are debating whether they were set on fire deliberately or whether the fires are an accident. So I ask, what is the probability that 30 oil wells would accidentally catch fire?

Best wishes,
Mason
John Cole
03-22-2003, 01:35 AM
About the same probability that Roswell and the Kennedy assasination are connected?

John
Clarkmeister
03-22-2003, 01:48 AM
I've also heard that as few as half a dozen oil wells were on fire and that as many as 100 were on fire, all on major cable news networks.

The real question is how reliable is the news coverage? Recent history tells us not very. Responsible jouralism in this country is a nearly extinct species.
BruceZ
03-22-2003, 05:08 AM
I've also heard that as few as half a dozen oil wells were on fire and that as many as 100 were on fire, all on major cable news networks.

Both could be fairly accurate depending on the base /forums/images/icons/smile.gif
Glenn
03-22-2003, 05:12 AM
Hi Mason,

The probability that 30 oil wells accidentally catch fire is irelevant since the fires already exist. To use the information you also need to know the probability that they would be lit on fire. Say you knew there was a 1/10000 chance that it was an accident. It would seem like it was unlikely, but if the chance it was done on purpose was 1/1000000 then it is actually very likely it is accidental. Fortunately, we know the probability they were intentionally set on fire. 100%. /forums/images/icons/smile.gif
scalf
03-22-2003, 09:34 AM
/forums/images/icons/smile.gif you all miss the obvious....

saddam #2 has declared them accidental fires; the independent(sic) council has declared this truth in iraq...there will be no debate...

the take-home-message: we all do this every day in our lives; take a look at the voting in clinton impeachment proceedings; virtually along party lines; yet every senator solemnly stated he(she) was just looking at the facts...no one challenged that either...lol...ez to attack others..look at yourselves..gl /forums/images/icons/cool.gif