When to fold a set...

[erc007]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

UTG+1 ($29.50)
UTG+2 ($36.40)
MP1 ($58.95)
MP2 ($52.65)
Hero ($57.10)
CO ($48.50)
Button ($11.50)
SB ($28.45)
BB ($45.80)
UTG ($84.63)

UTG+2 is 20/5/1 after 75 hands. He hasn't done anything notable before this hand.

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 6/images/graemlins/club.gif. SB posts a blind of $0.25.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+2 raises to $2</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Hero calls $2, CO calls $2, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, BB calls $1.50.

Flop: ($8.25) 5/images/graemlins/club.gif, K/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG+2 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $4</font>, CO folds, BB folds, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+2 raises to $10</font>, Hero calls $6.
At this point I put him on 3 hands: AK; AA; and KK...so I'm either WA/WB. I was kinda leaning towards AK, b/c he can have that hand 4 ways, plus the fact that a lot of these guys like to limp AA.

Turn: ($28.25) 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG+2 calls $24.40 (All-In), Hero calls $24.40.
This action didn't change my read, and getting 2 to 1 from the pot, my set only has to be good 33% of the time to break even (correct me if I'm wrong.) I've also seen a lot of guys push with top pair. This said, my question is how sure (in terms of a percenatge of certainty) would I have to be to correctly lay down my set?

River: ($77.05) Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

Final Pot: $77.05

[Macquarie]

You're right that you need to be ahead here about 33% of the time for this to be a call. Er, so you need to be 67% sure you're beat, if that's your question.

Dunno what villain was up to with that check raise. If he's not an idiot, it would point towards KKK that is not afraid of giving a free card on this drawless board. If he is an idiot, it could just as well be AA or AK (or just possibly KQs in a 5% PFR percentage).

Your call-call line after his CR is correct, and you have to go all the way with this I think.

[erc007]

Yeah, I guess I should have figured out that percentage...lol. Actually, I could subtract (from the 67%) the 2% of the time that I call and draw out (to my 1-outer) so, somewhere around 65% certainty would be correct to fold.

[Jazza]

yep, i give this one the ole' call down too

[octop]

Against my overset you are mathamtically going to hit quads 19% of the time

[Macquarie]

[ QUOTE ]
Against my overset you are mathamtically going to hit quads 19% of the time

[/ QUOTE ]

You reckon you hit your one out for quads one time in five?? I think you should check your mathamtics. It's just over 4% with two cards to come, just over 2% with one card to come, like the OP says.

[fuzzbox]

Raise pf in EP, followed by check-small raise on the flop is going to be KKK a whole lot. Alas - my hand is far too good to fold, and I play it like you do (although I might try to get it in on the flop).