this is a push, right?

[silencee]

knowing we probably have no fold equity

***** Hand History for Game 2508278195 *****
NL Texas Hold'em $30 Buy-in + $3 Entry Fee Trny:14700698 Level:5 Blinds(75/150) - Tuesday, August 09, 22:50:43 EDT 2005
Table Table 22392 (Real Money)
Seat 10 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 3: HERO ( $2380 )
Seat 6: PokChoppa ( $935 )
Seat 10: Chefb7 ( $2925 )
Seat 8: Mob1026 ( $1760 )
Trny:14700698 Level:5
Blinds(75/150)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to HERO [ Tc Ts ]
Mob1026 folds.
>You have options at Table 15128 Table!.
Chefb7 raises [800].
HERO...

[lastchance]

Depends on Villain's range. This is a spot where it can be counterintuitive, but you don't want to bust, and you need to be a heavy favorite to shove here.

Still, TT is a very good hand, and you do have some FE here, so I'd shove it, but it might be a mistake.

[Shillx]

No you can't push here with no folding equity. If he has 66+/any 2 broadway, you are only a ~ 56/44 favorite.

You can't afford to race with even stacks as less than a 2:1 favorite. With a short stack in there, you need QQ+ here against something like 66+/broadways and no folding equity.

Brad

[45suited]

Unless button has been really getting out of line, I'm folding here with the shortstack in the BB.

It's really hard to answer a question like this without seeing the context from the HH.

But without more info, I think folding is the best play.

[TWINUNO]

May seem weak tight, but with pleny of room to muscle, i would wait, if the blind level was 100/200, and stacks even i would push. Here you got a shorty waiting to get busted and this is the only guy to bust you. Unless hes played crazy up to this point i would just let it go.

[psyduck]

fold

[Hendricks433]

I fold. Dont want to bust with 2 shorter stacks. I make this move in the money though. Read dependent of course.

[ChuckNorris]

I would push this almost every time like lastchance.. But Nottom just showed me wrong. Nice thread, ty!

[11t]

Yah, I would advise mucking to his oversized bet.

[vinyard]

[ QUOTE ]
I would push this almost every time like lastchance.. But Nottom just showed me wrong. Nice thread, ty!

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah. Its a good thing when something that is a standard play for me is exposed as complete crap. Thanks to the OP and Nottom.

[psyduck]

post link to nottom's thread?

[billyjex]

you say he is 56/44 to the raiser's range. but I think he's better.. you really think villian is raising 6.5xbb w/ AA or KK? I might even drop QQ from the list of possible hands.

[Nottom]

[ QUOTE ]
post link to nottom's thread?

[/ QUOTE ]

I was thinking the same thing.

[Shillx]

[ QUOTE ]
you say he is 56/44 to the raiser's range. but I think he's better.. you really think villian is raising 6.5xbb w/ AA or KK? I might even drop QQ from the list of possible hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

So what? Even if he is 66/34 against his range, he still can't play. He needs to be about 70/30 if the villian will never fold.

Brad

[lastchance]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
you say he is 56/44 to the raiser's range. but I think he's better.. you really think villian is raising 6.5xbb w/ AA or KK? I might even drop QQ from the list of possible hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

So what? Even if he is 66/34 against his range, he still can't play. He needs to be about 70/30 if the villian will never fold.

Brad

[/ QUOTE ]
I think 66/34 is good enough, considering you will have some FE here.

[Isura]

Why are we only discussing the case when villain never folds? He's folding a large of hands that makes this donk overbet preflop. He probably didn't want to push since his hand isn't very good, and you hero almost has him covered.

[Shillx]

Okay. Villian has to raise about 40% of his hands to make us a 2:1 favorite if he always calls. Let's say that he will fold 20% of the time that we push.

EVafter posting = 29.4%
EVvillian folds = 35.1%
Win if called = 64.4%
EVcall = 26.4%

EV push = 28.2%

If he folds 30%...

Win if called = 63.1%
EVcall = 25.9%

EVpush = 28.7%

If he folds 50%....

Win if called = 58.9%
EVcall = 24.2%

EVpush = 29.7%

So he needs to fold a lot in order to push here. Almost half of the time if he is opening 40% of his hands. If he is opening with less hands (say 25% of his hands), then he has to fold even more in order to push here (and since he will be raising better hands to start with, it isn't going to happen). I really don't like a push in this spot.

Brad