Zygote
08-09-2005, 07:18 PM
Let me start by saying that so far i think the book has a lot of value (i'm halfway through). From what i've read, i have noticed that there is a lot of good advice in the book and, also, a bit of questionable advice.
The book is targeted to experienced players so i'd at least expect most of these players to always be questioning whatever they're reading. Throughout the week I plan to post a few different hands i'd like to discuss and question. My critiques or thoughts may be wrong, but please try not to flame me and, instead, just explain the issue. For now, this post will only attempt to thoroughly analyze the reasoning for the river decision on Hand 9.
*Byron Jacobs, if there is a problem with the way I am posting these hands, let me know and i will change or delete the posts.
*Please note that I am only excerpting the relevant parts of the hand, for those who dont own the this title. In the book, there is much more content on this hand.
----------------------------------------------------------
Hand 9
This is a ten player $20-$40 game. You are in the big blind with 5 /images/graemlins/club.gif5/images/graemlins/spade.gif. TheMan is in the cut-off. TheMan is a very good player: tight, aggressive, combative and hard to read.
Pre-flop
TheMan open-raises. The button and small blind both fold.
There is $70 in the pot and it is $20 to you. You call.
Flop
The flop is J/images/graemlins/heart.gif6/images/graemlins/spade.gif3/images/graemlins/club.gif.
There is $90 in the pot and it is $20 to bet. We can make the same assumption that if you now check, then your opponent will almost certainly bet. So you check and TheMan bets. You just call.
Turn
J/images/graemlins/heart.gif6/images/graemlins/spade.gif3/images/graemlins/club.gif2/images/graemlins/heart.gif
There is $130 in the pot and it is $40 to bet. You bet and TheMan just calls.
River
The river is
J/images/graemlins/heart.gif6/images/graemlins/spade.gif3/images/graemlins/club.gif2/images/graemlins/heart.gifJ/images/graemlins/diamond.gif. There is $210 in the pot and it is $40 to you. Do you (a) check or (b) bet?
You bet. TheMan think for a while and folds.
----------------------------------------------------
Byron Jacobs defends this river play like this:
"The J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif is unlikely to have helped TheMan. If he had a jack in his hand you would probably have heard about it on the turn. It is probable that you are winning, and it is also likely that if you check TheMan will just check it back. Bet and hope for a crying call from two high cards. "
Now if you remember, the only information given about TheMan is that he is tight-aggressive and tough to read. From this, we can reason that he would most likely only start pre-flop with a certain range of hands; a relatively small range of hands. Post-flop, we can assume that he wouldn't do anything stupid, but he will probably mix up his play and be slightly unconventional so he becomes harder to read. From this interpretation, i have a hard time understanding why BJ is so quick to eliminate all hands that have a J or better. Also, BJ hints that TheMan is unlikely to bluff on the river by saying that he is most likely to check behind. Someone who is aggressive, combative, and tough to read, IMO, would be very likely put in a river bet with or w/o a hand.
I should mention that i think his conclusion is correct and that betting out would be the best deicision. However, i contend that even if TheMan holds several strong hands and is very unlikely to check behind, betting out is still the best decision. To show this, let's start by looking at the different possible hands TheMan could be in with at this point and how many combinations each hand has.
Hands That Beat You
-------------------
AJ (16 ways)
KJ (16)
QJ (16)
J10(16)
J9s (4)
J8s (4)
A6 (16)
67s (4)
Any PP (excluding 44 and 55) that did not connect (42ways)
Any Set (12) +
--------
=146
Hands You Beat
--------------
A3 (16)
A2 (16
44 (6)
AQ (16)
AK (16)
K/images/graemlins/heart.gifQ/images/graemlins/heart.gif (1)
K/images/graemlins/heart.gif10/images/graemlins/heart.gif(1)
K/images/graemlins/heart.gif9/images/graemlins/heart.gif (1)
A/images/graemlins/heart.gifX/images/graemlins/heart.gif (10) +
---------------
=83
Is there anything I am missing? Remember, I am assuming TheMan has quite a tight pre-flop style and is fairly good post flop. He is also tough to read and can be notably aggressive.
Case 1: Assume you bet the river
------
Lets say he raises any Jack and all sets; that represents about 37% of his holdings (84/229). If he raises, lets assume you fold to keep things simple. Further, he will call with any hand that is better than bottom pair, which accounts for about 44% (100/229) of his possible hands. Of those, 62% (62/100) will beat you while you will beat the remaining 38% (38/100) of his hands. Lastly, he will fold the other 19% of his hands to a bet.
Expected Value:
(0.37)(-40) +(0.27)(-40) + (0.17)(290) + (0.19)(250)
= $71
Case 2: Assume you check the river
-------
Lets say he will bet 94% of time and when he does you will call. After calling a bet, you should win about 32% and lose the other 68% of the time. Also, he will only check behind a missed flush draw, which obviously costs him the pot the remaining 6% of the time.
Expected Value:
(0.30)(250) + (0.64)(-40) + (0.06)(210)
= $62
---------------
So we can see that betting is the best option even if TheMan has quite a few stronger hands and is very likely to bluff-bet. This is an interesting conclusion that i don't think BJ realized. Any thoughts?
The book is targeted to experienced players so i'd at least expect most of these players to always be questioning whatever they're reading. Throughout the week I plan to post a few different hands i'd like to discuss and question. My critiques or thoughts may be wrong, but please try not to flame me and, instead, just explain the issue. For now, this post will only attempt to thoroughly analyze the reasoning for the river decision on Hand 9.
*Byron Jacobs, if there is a problem with the way I am posting these hands, let me know and i will change or delete the posts.
*Please note that I am only excerpting the relevant parts of the hand, for those who dont own the this title. In the book, there is much more content on this hand.
----------------------------------------------------------
Hand 9
This is a ten player $20-$40 game. You are in the big blind with 5 /images/graemlins/club.gif5/images/graemlins/spade.gif. TheMan is in the cut-off. TheMan is a very good player: tight, aggressive, combative and hard to read.
Pre-flop
TheMan open-raises. The button and small blind both fold.
There is $70 in the pot and it is $20 to you. You call.
Flop
The flop is J/images/graemlins/heart.gif6/images/graemlins/spade.gif3/images/graemlins/club.gif.
There is $90 in the pot and it is $20 to bet. We can make the same assumption that if you now check, then your opponent will almost certainly bet. So you check and TheMan bets. You just call.
Turn
J/images/graemlins/heart.gif6/images/graemlins/spade.gif3/images/graemlins/club.gif2/images/graemlins/heart.gif
There is $130 in the pot and it is $40 to bet. You bet and TheMan just calls.
River
The river is
J/images/graemlins/heart.gif6/images/graemlins/spade.gif3/images/graemlins/club.gif2/images/graemlins/heart.gifJ/images/graemlins/diamond.gif. There is $210 in the pot and it is $40 to you. Do you (a) check or (b) bet?
You bet. TheMan think for a while and folds.
----------------------------------------------------
Byron Jacobs defends this river play like this:
"The J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif is unlikely to have helped TheMan. If he had a jack in his hand you would probably have heard about it on the turn. It is probable that you are winning, and it is also likely that if you check TheMan will just check it back. Bet and hope for a crying call from two high cards. "
Now if you remember, the only information given about TheMan is that he is tight-aggressive and tough to read. From this, we can reason that he would most likely only start pre-flop with a certain range of hands; a relatively small range of hands. Post-flop, we can assume that he wouldn't do anything stupid, but he will probably mix up his play and be slightly unconventional so he becomes harder to read. From this interpretation, i have a hard time understanding why BJ is so quick to eliminate all hands that have a J or better. Also, BJ hints that TheMan is unlikely to bluff on the river by saying that he is most likely to check behind. Someone who is aggressive, combative, and tough to read, IMO, would be very likely put in a river bet with or w/o a hand.
I should mention that i think his conclusion is correct and that betting out would be the best deicision. However, i contend that even if TheMan holds several strong hands and is very unlikely to check behind, betting out is still the best decision. To show this, let's start by looking at the different possible hands TheMan could be in with at this point and how many combinations each hand has.
Hands That Beat You
-------------------
AJ (16 ways)
KJ (16)
QJ (16)
J10(16)
J9s (4)
J8s (4)
A6 (16)
67s (4)
Any PP (excluding 44 and 55) that did not connect (42ways)
Any Set (12) +
--------
=146
Hands You Beat
--------------
A3 (16)
A2 (16
44 (6)
AQ (16)
AK (16)
K/images/graemlins/heart.gifQ/images/graemlins/heart.gif (1)
K/images/graemlins/heart.gif10/images/graemlins/heart.gif(1)
K/images/graemlins/heart.gif9/images/graemlins/heart.gif (1)
A/images/graemlins/heart.gifX/images/graemlins/heart.gif (10) +
---------------
=83
Is there anything I am missing? Remember, I am assuming TheMan has quite a tight pre-flop style and is fairly good post flop. He is also tough to read and can be notably aggressive.
Case 1: Assume you bet the river
------
Lets say he raises any Jack and all sets; that represents about 37% of his holdings (84/229). If he raises, lets assume you fold to keep things simple. Further, he will call with any hand that is better than bottom pair, which accounts for about 44% (100/229) of his possible hands. Of those, 62% (62/100) will beat you while you will beat the remaining 38% (38/100) of his hands. Lastly, he will fold the other 19% of his hands to a bet.
Expected Value:
(0.37)(-40) +(0.27)(-40) + (0.17)(290) + (0.19)(250)
= $71
Case 2: Assume you check the river
-------
Lets say he will bet 94% of time and when he does you will call. After calling a bet, you should win about 32% and lose the other 68% of the time. Also, he will only check behind a missed flush draw, which obviously costs him the pot the remaining 6% of the time.
Expected Value:
(0.30)(250) + (0.64)(-40) + (0.06)(210)
= $62
---------------
So we can see that betting is the best option even if TheMan has quite a few stronger hands and is very likely to bluff-bet. This is an interesting conclusion that i don't think BJ realized. Any thoughts?