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Net Warrior
03-21-2003, 11:36 AM
1st hand in the BB you get A6s vs. unknown players. EP bets, MP raises, 2MP 3 bets, and BU coldcalls. SB (1/3rd blind) folds. You’re getting 5-1 pot odds, a marginal call based on implied odds.

If EP and MP complete you’re getting 6.5-1, but if it’s capped, your implied odds are shot.

You are in early position which damages your implied odds.

These players seem pretty aggressive and aggression on the flop further damages your implied odds.

So, call or fold, and how close is this decision?

sucka
03-21-2003, 11:43 AM
I'm folding here 99.9% of the time. I'm not going to call 3 bets cold not counting the possibility of a player capping it behind me with a hand like A6s. If for no other reason that you know that it's going to continue to be very expensive for you to hang out and draw - and that's even if you spike a draw.

I think your implied odds are basically trashed as you can probably expect it to be 2 or 3 bets to you again on the flop making it a very slim call even if you flop the nut flush draw.

Your position in this hand is what makes it so important. If you were on the button, I think it might be a close call between calling and folding as you complete the action and don't have the risk of someone raising again behind you. In the BB though you will of course check the flop (provided that you don't flop a monster) and probably end up cold-calling again in draw mode - and maybe even get check-raised and end up calling another bet. Not fun.

I'd save my bullets for another fight.

DannyP
03-21-2003, 12:30 PM
Let me venture a guess at this one as a novice. This game looks to either be very aggressive or there are some strong hands out there. Even if you have implied odds on this round you are likely to be facing some raising post-flop, so you will be faced with a go/no-go on the flop. You arent going to play for runner-runner, or with any non- 2 flush flop other than A6, AA, 66. Flopping a 2 flush or one of those others (if Ive exorcised any probability gremlins) is somewhat worse than 5 to 1. If you do flop one of those youve got the current odds to play to the turn at least. This all agrees pretty well with your analysis....calling is borderline on an EV basis.

Capping it yourself is negative EV and high variance. However you are a stranger to the table too and capping and surviving will make a long lasting impression, and could keep you from being run over due to a passive image. Folding gives them no read at all, calling and folding on the flop or turn will give a loose/passive impression, capping and folding loose/aggressive.

That leads me to its either cap or fold now. At this stage in my game I fear getting run over in an aggressive game more than I do getting somewhat the worst of it on this bet. I would be tempted to cap it despite the negative EV. If I were alreay known at the table its an easy fold for me, since it looks like a long shot to bring it in cheaply

Blast away!