The Seven Day War

[Jedi Poker]

I predict that this war will be over by the 26th of March, 2003. It will be remembered as The Seven Day War. Despite our technological superiority, I predict that we will win it with tactical creativity. I sense something very creative coming. You heard it here first.

[Clarkmeister]

[HDPM]

There was some tactical creativity though with the early bombing of Saddam's bunker. That took excellent intelligence, excellent technology, and flexible command. That said, it is dangerous to underestimate any opponent, particularly in war, and we should not expect easy victory. The mission here is harder than the one we undertook in the Gulf War.

[IrishHand]

I'm thinking you vastly overrate the excellence and innovation of bombing a target. They were bombing "secret" bunkers in WWII.

[HDPM]

No, I am not overrating the ability. We did not have the technology to do what we did as recently as the Gulf War. The cruise missiles launched were reprogrammed using a much faster process tied in w/ GPS. Those missiles had different guidance systems in the Gulf War. The bombs dropped by the stealth fighters were also better guided and I think an improvement over existing designs. And when you consider it took a coordinated effort and instant communication between eyeball human intelligence on a street in Baghdad to the President of the United States and all military units in between, it was quite a feat. We could have done nothing of the sort in WWII. Yes we dropped bombs in WWII. In that the two events were similar.

[Jedi Poker]

It looks like General Franks got caught up in a little Fancy Play Syndrome. Instead of using the more traditional and conservative "gain ground then consolidate your supply lines" approach, he has chosen to use the "deep rapid penetrations and let the by-passed enemy positions wither in the vine" approach that Genghis Khan, Erik Von Manstein, George Sherman and Douglas MacArthur made famous.
But still, so far so good. The fact is, in just seven days, the main front is within striking position of Baghdad. The troops left in Basra and Umm Qsar are basically just mopping up operations. The Coalitions supply lines have never been truly threatened. It may sound like the Battle of the Bulge when you watch the news but the fact is the Iraqi attacks on the Coalition supply lines are just light skirmishes that troops as lightly armed as the SWAT Team of the LAPD could probably hold its own against.
It turns out that despite his very calm demeanor, Gen. Franks is a very aggressive commander. Dropping those 1,000 paratroopers in North Iraq without the cover of armour was pretty risky. I'm convinced that this war will be won with bold and creative tactics. Hopefully, it doesn't spill over into FPS.
My new prediction: The 21 Day War!

[Cyrus]

"My new prediction: The 21 Day War!"

Uh oh. Now I doubt that come April 9th this damn war'll be over.

[Dynasty]

It looks like General Franks got caught up in a little Fancy Play Syndrome. Instead of using the more traditional and conservative "gain ground then consolidate your supply lines" approach, he has chosen to use the "deep rapid penetrations and let the by-passed enemy positions wither in the vine" approach

Franks' original plan was supposed to be very similar to the 1991 Gulf War strategy- bomb, bomb, bomb for a long time and then send in the ground troops. It was Rumsfeld who wanted a different approach which exploited the extraordinary speed and mobility of the U.S. army.

[Cyrus]

A week away from pay day!

[Jedi Poker]

It's not looking too good form me. Gen. Franks may have to use nukes if my prediction is to come true - a quadrillion to one shot. But what the hell, I'll stick to my guess. I will no longer be "re-buying" though. /forums/images/icons/smirk.gif /forums/images/icons/blush.gif /forums/images/icons/frown.gif /forums/images/icons/smile.gif /forums/images/icons/laugh.gif

[Jedi Poker]

For the record, I'm sticking with my 21 Day War prediction. This war will be studied by generations of soldiers to come. General Franks (and Rumsfeld?) will be hailed as a military genius because of the creative manner in which this war WILL HAVE BEEN won.

[Jedi Poker]

I can't wait for pay day because to my knowledge I am the only one in this forum to start a thread by making a prediction about how long the war will last. I have a bonus prediction: Any military actions on the part of the Coalition after the 21st day inside Iraq will just be "mopping up" operations.

[Cyrus]

Hey, man. Have the strength of your convictions! don't just change 'em on the basis of how things look on the TV screen. More importantly, don't gloat ! The moment you go back on your guess, you forfeit the right to I-told-you-so's, no matter how quick you are to jump back and forth.

"I have a bonus prediction: Any military actions on the part of the Coalition after the 21st day inside Iraq will just be "mopping up" operations."

I have a bonus revelation : Any military actions on the part of the Coalition can be termed "mopping up" operations, even those that started a week ago, if the press release so describes it. Excuse my English.

[Jedi Poker]

In the post I made in this thread on 4/01/03 11:32 AM, I specifically said:

"But what the hell, I'll stick to my guess."

Go ahead. Re-read it. I really really said, "But what the hell, I'll stick to my guess". Yes, I expressed doubt about my prediction. But once you've reread my 4/01/03 11:32 AM post, you'll see that I have never gone back on my guess. I admit I expressed doubt but I NEVER went back on my guess. Can I get back my "I-told-you-so rights" now? /forums/images/icons/smile.gif

[IrishHand]

A war is over when one side or the other surrenders, or some other diplomatic event transpires to end the hostilities. If you think that's going to happen anytime soon, you're insane.

[Jedi Poker]

Karl Von Clausewitz defined "war" as follows:

"War is the continuation of policy by other means".

In other words, war is a servant of policy - a means for accomplishing (geo)policy goals. War is a means to an end (the geopolicy end), not an end in itself.

What was the Coalition's policy goal? Regime Change. Has regime change been accomplished on this 21st day of the war? Yes. There is a new regime in town and it is called the (temporary) United States/Coalition Regime. Thus, any further military action that the Coalition will engage in from this point on is mopping up and REBEL suppression. The "REBEL" being the previous regime. The US-led Coalition IS the regime. The remaining Saddam thugs are rebels trying to unseat that regime.

Mission accomplished! Now for the hard part....

[Cyrus]

Enjoy your lucky streak but don't dwell too much on it. You picked a couple of nice, round numbers, 7 and 21, you gambled with 'em and your numbers hit. Good for you! Now, pretending to be a Clausewitz only makes your nice win look, well, a little ridiculous.

" "War is the continuation of policy by other means". In other words, war is a servant of policy - a means for accomplishing (geo)policy goals."

A polite hint : You have the saying wrong. And then you have the explanation wrong ("servant" means different things from "continuation"). And the term is "geopolitics", it denotes "the study of the relationship among politics and geography, demography, and economics, especially with respect to the foreign policy of a nation".

Enjoy your bragging rights.