STEP 5 Push-Fold Psychology Hand

[Jman28]

I think this is a hand that is very read-dependent.

Normally, I think it's a push, but this was one case where an argument could be made against it.

The hand before this one, right before, the villain had raised to t450, just like this hand. The SB pushed for only 650 more, and the villain folded.

Normally, that would make me not respect his raises later on, but since it was the hand before, I had a hard time thinking he would make another raise without value right after the last one.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t150 (7 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Hero (t1660)
BB (t1950)
UTG (t635)
MP1 (t1800)
MP2 (t1495)
CO (t825)
Button (t1635)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 7/images/graemlins/club.gif, 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 raises to t450</font>, <font color="#666666">some folds</font>, Hero ?

[Jman28]

Hey guys, if I'm gonna fix every single one of my leaks today, I'm gonna need responses to threads like this one.

[Newt_Buggs]

I vote fold. As much as I hate the argument "if you have chips than you have time to wait" I think that it has some merit here. Pushing is probably marginally +chip ev but not worth the gamble.

[Myst]

Id fold too, given that he had just made a similar raise the hand before.

[Jman28]

[ QUOTE ]
I vote fold. As much as I hate the argument "if you have chips than you have time to wait" I think that it has some merit here. Pushing is probably marginally +chip ev but not worth the gamble.

[/ QUOTE ]

So, do you believe this is a fold against most opponents?

Do the details of the previous hand have any impact on the range you put him on, or how he will respond to a reraise?

I think this is a fold based on the facts against the prior hand. In my opinion if you push you will be at best a coin flip. He could very easily have something like 99-AA.

You only push here if you think your opponent is capable of folding.

[microbet]

Ok, well I think it's a fold. It is close enough with no history and because of the last hand he either has a tighter range on this hand or he is more likely to call the reraise with a wider range anyway.

[wuwei]

[ QUOTE ]
Do the details of the previous hand have any impact on the range you put him on, or how he will respond to a reraise?

[/ QUOTE ]

The previous hand tells me that you have 0 FE. I don't think he raises again without committing to call a reraise. There isn't enough dead money to warrant a likely coin flip, so without FE I fold.

[freemoney]

if there was ever a hand to apply gigabets idea i really think these stacks which are real huddled are the perfect situation, bubbles play tight at step 5s and i think this would be a great situation to have alot of chips so no way im folding here, i either call and push most flops or push pre

[Jman28]

[ QUOTE ]
if there was ever a hand to apply gigabets idea i really think these stacks which are real huddled are the perfect situation, bubbles play tight at step 5s and i think this would be a great situation to have alot of chips so no way im folding here, i either call and push most flops or push pre

[/ QUOTE ]

If I bust him, there is no more bubble. You mean if he folds?

EDIT: PLEASE IGNORE ABOVE STATEMENT. IT MAY CAUSE SORE JOINTS.

[freemoney]

is this a normal or mini step 5?

[Jman28]

[ QUOTE ]
is this a normal or mini step 5?

[/ QUOTE ]

My mistake.. I'm confusing my hands. You are correct here. This is a normal STEP 5.

[freemoney]

so the +EV you gain from the bubble as the big stack if you double through is pretty cool i think and i like to gamble, folding is no fun

[Jman28]

[ QUOTE ]
if there was ever a hand to apply gigabets idea i really think these stacks which are real huddled are the perfect situation, bubbles play tight at step 5s and i think this would be a great situation to have alot of chips so no way im folding here, i either call and push most flops or push pre

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this is an interesting way to look at the situation. Thanks. I'm playing one right now, but I wanna talk more about this later.

I think it's incorrect to assume tighter raising standards for the villain. After the last hand, the villain knows no one at the table will call with anything less than a premium hand. In this situation, a tricky villain could make this move with any two. I definitely push here.

[Jman28]

[ QUOTE ]
I think it's incorrect to assume tighter raising standards for the villain. After the last hand, the villain knows no one at the table will call with anything less than a premium hand. In this situation, a tricky villain could make this move with any two. I definitely push here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you are giving the villain too much credit here. This is like 4th level thinking you're talking about.

[Jman28]

(Edit: This is my investigation of Freemoney's response. This is a concept that I often think about)

Okay, so here are the stack sizes...


Hero (t1660)
BB (t1950)
UTG (t635)
MP1 (t1800)
MP2 (t1495)
CO (t825)
Button (t1635)

I'm going to make a couple of assumptions. I'm going to assume that he will call my push (not a stretch) and that I will be 50% to win against his range (closer I think to 45%, but for simplicity sake 50... plus the actual hand isn't as important as the concept).

If I fold...

Stack sizes are:

Hero (t1585)
BB (t1800)
UTG (t635)
MP1 (t1800)
MP2 (t1720)
CO (t825)
Button (t1635)

ICM (standard SNG payout though) gives me equity of 15.84%. (We'll discuss the structure later)

Call and lose (half the time):

I have 165 chips for an ICM of 1.98%

Call and win (half the time): Stack sizes:

Hero (t3305)
BB (t1800)
UTG (t635)
MP1 (t1800)
CO (t825)
Button (t1635)

And the blinds at 75/150. Two more players to go until the bubble bursts.

Now, ICM says our new equity is 28.26%.

According to ICM alone (with the standard sng structure),

Equity of fold = 15.84
Equity of call = 15.11

ICM, of course, doesn't take into account the benefits of having a big stack on the bubble.

For this next part, I'm going to make a very unsupported assumption.

Let's assume that having this big stack allows you to succesfully steal 3 more blinds (BB and SB) than you would have if you folded (on average). (This includes being in the BB and having it folded to you, where it would've been pushed, and you would've folded). Let's assume these blinds are once this level 75/150, and twice next level, 100/200.

I think this is a somewhat reasonable assumption. If you disagree, let's find some approximate number we can all agree on. This is an important part of the process

Taking t150, t75, t200(x2), and t100 (x2) arbitrarily away from some other stacks, and giving them to us (it doesn't matter THAT much who we take it from, as long as we don't take it all from one guy and bust him), we get the following stack sizes:

Hero (t4130)
BB (t1600)
UTG (t535)
MP1 (t1550)
CO (t750)
Button (t1435)

Our new Equity according to ICM is 32.52%.

Now:

Equity of fold = 15.84
Equity of call = 17.25

This gives us a fairly clear call.

Now, the flatter payout structure of the STEP 5s, would probably make this less of a clear call, but that's not important. We could just pretend this were a regular SNG, and if we agreed on the # of extra steals possible, the concept would hold.

This part is key. I feel like it's a really hard number to approximate, and there are other factors involved.

Okay, please let me know what you think.

[Newt_Buggs]

I think that you're overrating the value of a big stack on the bubble. To say that a big stack automatically gives you 825 chips that you wouldn't have with a healthy stack is an overexageration. You'll still be able to steal quite easily if you fold, its just that if you have a big stack you can be more liberal with your pushes since losing a showdown doesn't bust you on the bubble. However, taking a coin flip here to gain this status seams silly. You are risking going bust so that you can get a stack that you can risk without going bust....if that makes any sense. If I understand gigabet right, one of the key parts of his argument is that losing the chips in the present doesn't hurt you strategically. This hand fails in this qualifier.

basically:
-you can still steal after you fold
-a big stack can steal and get caught once without going bust
-risking going bust for the above advantage is a bad decision

On the other hand, you assume that pushing is neutral chip EV. I have no idea on how to quantify this, but its quite possible that its +chip EV which could make this a push.

ps. I have your hand histories bookmarked so that I don't forget them even though I can't look at them atm.

[Jman28]

[ QUOTE ]
I think that you're overrating the value of a big stack on the bubble. To say that a big stack automatically gives you 825 chips that you wouldn't have with a healthy stack is an overexageration. You'll still be able to steal quite easily if you fold, its just that if you have a big stack you can be more liberal with your pushes since losing a showdown doesn't bust you on the bubble. However, taking a coin flip here to gain this status seams silly. You are risking going bust so that you can get a stack that you can risk without going bust....if that makes any sense. If I understand gigabet right, one of the key parts of his argument is that losing the chips in the present doesn't hurt you strategically. This hand fails in this qualifier.

basically:
-you can still steal after you fold
-a big stack can steal and get caught once without going bust
-risking going bust for the above advantage is a bad decision

On the other hand, you assume that pushing is neutral chip EV. I have no idea on how to quantify this, but its quite possible that its +chip EV which could make this a push.

ps. I have your hand histories bookmarked so that I don't forget them even though I can't look at them atm.

[/ QUOTE ]

I understand your objections. I don't want to call this a 'gigabet' type theory, because it is different, I think.

Okay, so the main objection, which was the part I was most shaky about, is the 'extra steal' number I came up with.

I know that you still can steal if you fold, and that the fact that you can push more liberally doesn't mean you automatically get the ~800 chips.

Maybe I made my post too quickly and didn't think about it enough.

I DO think that there is an advantage to having the big stack that is not taken into account by ICM. I really would like it if we could somehow approximate that advantage, because my hypothesis is that it is significant enough to turn some folds into calls/pushes.

Thanks for your thoughts.

[Newt_Buggs]

I definitly agree that there is a significant advantage to having a big stack on the bubble. However, as usual it is much easier to criticize and I don't know of an accurate way to quantify that advantage. One of the problems is that it varies greatly based on the table. Against a loose aggressive table I don't think that a big stack is going to help you as much. People are going to be pushing in front of you blocking your best steal attempts from the SB/Button and once you do get an opportunity to steal you have to be careful against loose players. However, against the right tight passive table you would be able to push almost every hand.

It seems like a big stack is just going to magnify the edge that you would normally have as an altert, aggressive player on the bubble.

[Jman28]

[ QUOTE ]
I definitly agree that there is a significant advantage to having a big stack on the bubble. However, as usual it is much easier to criticize and I don't know of an accurate way to quantify that advantage. One of the problems is that it varies greatly based on the table. Against a loose aggressive table I don't think that a big stack is going to help you as much. People are going to be pushing in front of you blocking your best steal attempts from the SB/Button and once you do get an opportunity to steal you have to be careful against loose players. However, against the right tight passive table you would be able to push almost every hand.

It seems like a big stack is just going to magnify the edge that you would normally have as an altert, aggressive player on the bubble.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good points.

So, at a tighter table, having a big stack is more advantageous than at a LAGgier table. This might be too general, because people react to the big stack in different ways. (a LAGgy table could become tight when a big stack is present)

I think that at a 'better' table, meaning those with knowledge of ICM, it might be very advantageous to have the big stack because:

a) they know that you can call with little risk vs. their pushes.
b) they know that calling an all-in on the bubble , even as a probable favorite, is often wrong. Especially if there is a short stack.

I don't really know where to go from here. I'm gonna sleep on it.

I feel strongly though that our strategy needs some slight alteration because of this. I've played so many games with a big stack on the bubble where I've just completely manipulated the game... keeping the shorty alive, stealing TONS of chips from the others, sometimes having 80+% of the chips when the bubble bursts. I really think it is a huge advantage, and a large reason that I always have a heavy 1st place finish distribution.

[Freudian]

Fold. But store the information for future encounters when you have a slightly stronger hand than 77.

[Moonsugar]

[ QUOTE ]
If I understand gigabet right, one of the key parts of his argument is that losing the chips in the present doesn't hurt you strategically. This hand fails in this qualifier.



[/ QUOTE ]

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Do the details of the previous hand have any impact on the range you put him on, or how he will respond to a reraise?

[/ QUOTE ]

The previous hand tells me that you have 0 FE. I don't think he raises again without committing to call a reraise. There isn't enough dead money to warrant a likely coin flip, so without FE I fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

what?

the previous hand tells me that he can raise and fold to a reraise. the action from the previous hand makes me think he's more likely to fold to your push now, not less.

it's possible villain is thinking along your/OP's rationale, but it's also very possible he just likes raise-folding.

[freemoney]

alright well i think its irrelevant what you wanna call it, personally i think you are def better than 45% over his range of hands plus you def have some fold equity although its probably not alot, and with the added EV that is inherent of playing a big stack well in this situation can really be quite significant, and even though its a flatter payout its more of an escalation in percentage from 2nd to 1st so its even more of a difference from 1st to 2nd although not as much compared to the overall payout structure then the 5-3-2 im not sure if this has anything to do with anything, also i think my biggest weakness is playing the medium sized stack around the bubble and i think how i play the big stack is one of my strengths so for this situation where in a vacuum with 77 i wouldnt be surprised if it was +EV, with the added factors i will usually not fold this...

[Paul Thomson]

stupid question. could someone please tell me what the buy-in is for a "step 5". thanks. sorry i play at pokerroom and do not have the same structure.

[se2schul]

$1000 to buy in, or by placing in a step 4.

[Jman28]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If I understand gigabet right, one of the key parts of his argument is that losing the chips in the present doesn't hurt you strategically. This hand fails in this qualifier.



[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]

Please read my responses. I said that I don't want to call this a 'gigabet' play because it may be different.