Did I screw this hand (AA, top set)?

[hukilai]

PartyPoker 6 max 200NL;

I have $100, villian covers. After MP limper I raise $10 with red aces on button, limper calls. This guy plays solid poker, mildly aggro, but not wild.

Flop is A/images/graemlins/club.gif Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif x, villian checks, I check too.
Turn is K/images/graemlins/spade.gif, villian checks, I raise $25, he raises $50, I push (about $65), he calls.

How often do I lose here?

[JihadOnTheRiver]

A lot, because you've made your hand painfully obvious. Here is the advice that I think has made me the most money over time, and it applies to all forms of poker (and is the best way to make $ in limit in my experience); Play (nearly) everything fast!

Your benefit is two fold(more really, but for this argument):
1) You never end up giving free cards to TJo when you flop a set...

2) You confuse your opponents and get paid off a LOT more than you do when you try to C-R/hide everything.

This line is about as obvious as can be. Not many people playing the 200 tables are 'creative' enough to do this with anything less than AK. To the villain, you clearly have a set. So in this case, I'd be surprised to see anything but TJ 80-90% of the time. I hope you win, but you need to bet this flop next time.

[ajmargarine]

[ QUOTE ]
How often do I lose here?

[/ QUOTE ]

Every time. It's poetic justice for suffering from FPS (Fancy Play Syndrome). Here's some tips for SSNLHE.

-Don't get cute.
-Don't overthink.
-Don't make the decisions for your opponents. Let them make the mistakes.

...and lastly, not applicable here, but one of my cardinal rules:

-Don't get caught up in other people's messes.

Once you purge all this stuff from your game, then you are probably smart enough to add it back in in small selected doses.

[ravensfan]

How is it clearly a set? Can't it look a lot like a semi bluff/steal, 2 pair, AJ etc...
Maybe you're catching an AQ or AK who's trapped into b/c of pot odds.
I just don't get how it could be that clear that the villian called with J10o and how that's automatically his hand.

[poboy]

[ QUOTE ]
So in this case, I'd be surprised to see anything but TJ 80-90% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is way too high. You will see 2pr,smaller sets and flush draws just as often if not more so. Though I do agree with you Hero should have bet the flop. JMO

[hukilai]

Just in case you care, the results are below:
The villian had J/images/graemlins/spade.gifT/images/graemlins/spade.gif, river did not improve any of us and he won.

Because he was a good player, after he called 5xBB bet, i put him on high pair, AK, definitely not on JT.

Nevertheless, I agree, my checking on flop was just stupid.

I am back to my 50NL bread and butter now. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[ravensfan]

Even if you do put him on JT, then you're still hitting the nuts 1/3 of the time. 7 outs on the turn (~15%) + 10 outs on the river (~22%) to win on the river.
If you don't put him on 10J (which is a really odd hand to call a large bet with), then you're an overwhelming favorite, or just a clear favorite if he's drawing to a flush... so it's an obvious push.
I think you'd need to put him on 10J >> 50% of the time for it not to be +EV... assuming you had no money committed to the pot. I don't think i could put anyone on 10J at this frequency.
JMO. Am I too loose?

[mudbuddha]

its 1/3 of the time from the flop..
why would u allow a draw heavy flop liek that to be checked???
i've seen ppl call raises PF with JT, if they feel confident in their post flop play. and meanwhile u give them gutshot back door flush draw..
the goal of poker is just make him pay for that stuff like that, if you win the pot on the flop to a bet, so be it..

maybe im just giving advice from someone whos slow palyed too many hands while learning hte game

[ravensfan]

Nah, i like the flop play. Hero has only 50x bb, already good money in pot, and flopped top set. He has position on an aggressive limper and doesn't make continuation bet. I think there's a chance villian bets out with TP, or even a pair of kings.. It's tough to put villian on the only possible hand that can beat you.
Again JMO, but i think i'm getting stacked here... is this a leak of mine?