Iraq's Coming Collapse: House Of Cards

[MMMMMM]

Just my guess but I think we'll likely see Iraq fold with relatively little bloodshed. Defections, surrenders etc. will be the rule rather than the exception, even possibly among Iraqi top brass.

The U.S. psychological campaign, backed up by credible and overwhelming force, is going to have it's brilliant and intended effect. Most Iraqis, including top brass, KNOW (or soon will know) that resistance is futile. This is part of the reason the US-UK armored column is now heading for the oilfields (backed up with air power), even before the "air war."

The massive air/bomb strike campaign called "Shock and Awe" may not even be necessary (let's hope).

Those few Iraqi units that don't understand that resistance is futile soon will. The whole thing will unravel fast as most all Iraqis just try to save their skins.

If this comes off as I'm guessing it well might, kudos indeed to the military planners and to the Bush administration for a war without massive carnage.

[adios]

Certainly you've portrayed the most desirable scenario. Hopefully you'll be right. I have a hard time envisioning Saddam and sons going out as heroic martyrs. I would think they're almost certain to do something dastardly before they cut and run though.

[MMMMMM]

I too think that's likely. I don't think it will all be bloodless, and I suspect a few Iraqi units may have to be pounded, and some military targets taken out. But hopefully, and quite possibly, we won't even need to waste most of those smart bombs, just a fraction of them, and the Iraqis will be spared the worst (plus this way we can save those smart bombs for North Korea if necessary;-)). Saving most of those smart bombs will also make rebuilding Iraq a lot less expensive;-)

Saddam will do something dastardly if he can. Hopefully he will get a bullet in the head first from his security services, or he will be so cut off underground in hiding that he can't do much and/or his commanders will realize they are sealing their own doom if they launch WMD. Saddam probably won't have his own fingers on the buttons of WMD and there is a good chance that those who do will be smart enough not to use them.

Whatever the result, I think the extensive PSYOPS campaign that has been taking place will reduce the casualties immensely.

[andyfox]

The president today warned that the war with Iraq will increase the chances of terrorist attacks on our country.

Hopefully you're right and he's wrong.

[ripdog]

House of Cards. Funny. I have wondered aloud whether the US is a house of cards itself. I wondered whether our foundation is just a bunch of BS or not. Then the ENRON scandal hit. Yes, it seems that much of the 90's boom was based on the lies of greedy corporate execs. Then my wife got a job with the DOD. She recently told me what happens when she puts money into her retirement account. The government puts an IOU into her account and then applies her deposit to the national debt. I can only assume that this is done to make the debt appear smaller than it is. More lies, er, I mean creative accounting. I wonder what shoe is going to drop next. There is no doubt in my mind that Iraq's house is less stable than ours. I'm sure they'll fall quickly and the Bush administration can strut around like a bunch of peacock's. I only wonder what it's going to feel like when our own house comes crashing down around us.

[MMMMMM]

Of course it will increase the chances of terrorist attacks here in the near-term. But the bastards are going to try and attack us sooner or later anyway, so maybe flushing some of them out now will be better in the long run.

[brad]

'we won't even need to waste most of those smart bombs,'

that would be economic disaster for defense sector

[MMMMMM]

^

[andyfox]

"the bastards are going to try and attack us sooner or later anyway, so maybe flushing some of them out now will be better in the long run."

Hopefully the bastards are not thinking this themselves.

[MMMMMM]

andy, I believe you do not like my use of the word "bastards" here. Well neither do I, but I feel it's almost appropriate. The reason I feel this way is because of the following:

They would be happy to attack and kill you and I personally if they have the chance. You and I never did anything to them. They are not merely attacking our military or our policy-makers; terrorists frequently and specifically target the uninvolved and innocent. bin-Laden has called on al Qaeda to kill and plunder Americans wherever they can be found.

Now: if you or I had a monumental gripe with some party, we would perhaps, as a last resort, use force. But it would not be force directed against their children instead of against them. By frequently and preferentially targeting the innocent and uninvolved instead of the involved, terrorists have sunk through hatred and delusion to a level of morality which is in fact below that of animals. Their thoughts and feelings are more akin to demons, as it were, than humans. One might say that they have devolved spiritually into a subhuman, malevolent entity of sorts.

Now I know this sounds pretty far out and I don't mean it quite literally. However if you look at their thoughts and actions you will see a consistency with this characterization. According to Buddhist theory (and I am not a Buddhist, nor do I take Buddhist theory at face value), there are 5 realms of existence: Human, Animal, the realm of Gods, the realm of Demons, and the realm of hungry ghosts. It's easy to pooh-pooh all such things, but I can't rule out a spiritual aspect to the universe because I simply don't know. And if there is, the sheer malevolence or goodness one sometimes feels from certain presences would perhaps be more easily explained. Whatever merit or lack thereof there is to the above, I don't think it can be denied that true terrorists are among the most misguided, deluded and malevolent persons on Earth. And if they target you or me, when we've done absolutely nothing to them, well then they're bastards as well;-).

It might actually be better if they attempt to attack sooner rather than later, because they will have greater weapons later, and those who attack now and are captured or killed can't attack later. If their numbers can continue to be be diminished--and al-Qaeda is on the run now and shrinking--we will be winning the conflict. Our continuing imperative is to deny them access to more deadly weapons.

[brad]

'But it would not be force directed against their children instead of against them.'

not true abrams on the abrams report msnbc has advocated the use of torture against terrorist supsect's children.

[MMMMMM]

So some one may advocate it, but unless it is actually implemented, my statement is true.

[Cyrus]

"My wife got a job with the DOD. She recently told me what happens when she puts money into her retirement account. The government puts an IOU into her account and then applies her deposit to the national debt. I can only assume that this is done to make the debt appear smaller than it is. More lies, er, I mean creative accounting."

Actually, it is the only correct accounting procedure. When your wife deposits money to the DOD, she is literally loaning money to the government. The money in her account is money owed to her by the government. When she withdraws her money, the loan is being repayed. Counting that deposit among the nat'l debt is correct.

It's the same with bank accounts. The money deposited in them by the public is money owed to the public by the bank. The money that the bank has lent out, i.e. the bank's loans, are the bank's assets. When we talk about how big a bank is, we don't refer to its debts (deposits), we refer to its assets (loans).

[Clarkmeister]

Its one thing for M on an internet message board to think this. Its another for Rumsfeld to count on it.

[MMMMMM]

Clarkmeister you'll notice that I left open the possibility that all might not work as planned and that this forecast might be way too optimistic;-)

Also, Rumsfeld doubtless had contingency plans which are now being implemented;-)

[Clarkmeister]

I wasn't attacking you for your prediction. I'd guess that 90% of Americans felt the same way prior to the onset of hostilities. Heck, 90% felt that way 3 days into hostilities.

"Also, Rumsfeld doubtless had contingency plans which are now being implemented;-) "

Of course he had contingency plans. If he didn't, we'd just pack up and go home. That doesn't mean they adequately anticipated the likelihood of actually having to implement those plans.