Implied odds against a fish

[davidross]

Online 5/10. The best paradise 5/10 game I have ever seen. One admitted beginner who played almost every hand, stayed to the river then folded if he did not make a pair. If he had even bottom pair he would call a river bet. There was also an over-aggressive guy criticizing his play the whole time, although his play was barely better. Between the two of them they left a lot of money on the table and I got most of it. Yippee!!.

On the hand in question the beginner open limped in MP. My 2+2 lurker friend raised him from the cut-off. I was in the BB with AJo. Normally I would muck this to this players raise, but the way this beginner was playing the lurker could be raising with almost anything. I called.

Flop K T 9.

I checked, Beginner bet and lurker raised. Again I would normally fold here but the beginner will be in this hand to the river for sure. If I hit I will get 3 BB’s minimum from him. Do I have the implied odds to call here?

[JTG51]

Do I have the implied odds to call here?

Do you think your A is good if you hit it? Will the 2+2er pay you off through the river if you hit? If they are both no you can't call. You are getting 4.5-1, I don't think you would have any chance to make up the difference under those conditions.

If I hit I will get 3 BB’s minimum from him.

Are you talking about the beginner here, or did I misread that? If you are, that seems overly optimistic to me. He'd have to raise you on the turn or river for you to make 3 BBs. From your scouting report, he doesn't sound like he'll be raising without the nuts.

[davidross]

I'll get the 3 bets because he'll bet the turn and I'll get a raise in, which he will call. He would then call the river bet too. The lurker is the mystery here. I can't put him on a hand yet. At this point I think he could have anything, because if he gets me out he goes head to head with a guy that would play bottom pair here.

[davidross]

Recap.

I have AJ in the BB. Flop was K T 9 and beginner bet and lurker raised.

I made the very loose (and optimistic, I need my A to be live for this call to be good I think in hindsight) call only to see the beginner 3-bet (he hasn’t done this before), and the lurker cap it. Now I will put the beginner on two-pair and the lurker on a set. Now I’m getting 8-1 so I called 2 cold a second time (This time I think the implied odds are there).

Flop was the beautiful Q. I check, beginner bets, lurker calls, I raise, beginner 3-bets, lurker calls and I cap (see I told you the implied odds were there). They both call. 21+ BB’s in the pot.

River was an ugly, horrible, smelly K. I check, beginner bets, lurker folds and I make the crying call. He had KT and I watch my $232 dollars slide the wrong way on the screen.

Those loose calls get you one way or another. Luckily with this particular player it was just a loan.

[Louie Landale]

The first flop call was better than the 2nd: Your A could realistically be an out the first call, but on the 2nd the A is obviously not an out AND if you make your straight you are much more likely to be beat when the board pairs.

[1] Lets look at your 1st decision another way. You are about 12:1 to snag your Q and are getting 5:1 to call. This means you need to average 7 more BB when you hit your Q AND your straight must always win. You need MORE than 7BB in impied odds if your straight isn't going to always win. That's a lot of future bets.

[2] Another way. You are 12:1 against and it costs 1BB to call. Would you willing pay 12BB right now (counting your call) in order to guarantee that a Q would come on the turn? Well, that's effectively what you are saying when you call: 11 times you invest and lose, the 12th time you get your Queen.

- Louie