109--Bubble play with chip lead

[TheArtist]

109 at empire
4 players blinds 150/300
Hero with A2 in sb with 3600k
small blind with 3250
UTG and Button got 1575 each
Folded to hero, Hero Push(mistake?)

Note: BB has been quite tight

Comment?

TheArtist

[Jman28]

It looks good to me.

[Unarmed]

I dump that very quickly.
Give me something like KTs and I'll let er rip.
I see no reason to risk your tournament with 10+BB and a crappy hand.

[Jman28]

[ QUOTE ]
I dump that very quickly.
Give me something like KTs and I'll let er rip.
I see no reason to risk your tournament with 10+BB and a crappy hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

With BB being tight, and one less ace for him to have, my gut tells me this push is +EV.

[Unarmed]

J,

I'm not saying it isn't marginally +EV. It's just one of those situations that I definitely pass on, and I'm pretty sure it's correct to do so.

[Newt_Buggs]

I don't see why ICM would be wrong here when it says that this is a clear push.

[Unarmed]

In situations where the two med/short stacks are beside each other in the blinds I need a pretty big hand to mess with the other big stack. ICM doesn't account for the fact that these two guys are probably going to have a SB vs. BB encounter fairly soon. Perhaps this thinking is flawed.

[Nottom]

[ QUOTE ]
In situations where the two med/short stacks are beside each other in the blinds I need a pretty big hand to mess with the other big stack. ICM doesn't account for the fact that these two guys are probably going to have a SB vs. BB encounter fairly soon. Perhaps this thinking is flawed.

[/ QUOTE ]

Unless the guy is an idiot hes not calling you 95% of the time. This is an easy push and a way to put some distance between you and the other big stack.

If the guy is tight, I wouldn't be surprised to see if you could push almost anything here.

[axeshigh]

[ QUOTE ]


Unless the guy is an idiot hes not calling you 95% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

I had this happen today (a 55, not a 109 though), I pushed my A2, thinking 'unless the guy is an idiot'. He said 'well it's been fun' and called with AJo. /images/graemlins/frown.gif I busted 4th after losing another flip.

[RobertC]

If the big blind has been playing tight then wouldn't a raise of 4 or 5xBB get him to fold any hand that he would've folded to an all-in bet? Or do you believe that there are hands that he would fold to an all-in bet but would play against a raise of 4 x BB?

If you raise 4xBB he's only going to reraise with hands that you are a big underdog against. This gives you a chance to get away from the hand.

You're the chip leader with an M of 8, and the two small stacks have an M of 3.5. Is the risk of having an all-in bet called by a hand that will be more than a 2-1 favorite compensated by the additional hands that will be folded to an all-in bet but not to a 4xBB raise?

[lastchance]

[ QUOTE ]
If the big blind has been playing tight then wouldn't a raise of 4 or 5xBB get him to fold any hand that he would've folded to an all-in bet? Or do you believe that there are hands that he would fold to an all-in bet but would play against a raise of 4 x BB?

If you raise 4xBB he's only going to reraise with hands that you are a big underdog against. This gives you a chance to get away from the hand.

You're the chip leader with an M of 8, and the two small stacks have an M of 3.5. Is the risk of having an all-in bet called by a hand that will be more than a 2-1 favorite compensated by the additional hands that will be folded to an all-in bet but not to a 4xBB raise?

[/ QUOTE ]
You want to get away with a hand after raising 40% of your stack and getting better than 2:1 immediate odds on a call?

I don't think so.

[RobertC]

Any hand that this tight player reraises with will win > 70% of the time against A-2. Do you want to be all-in as this big a dog when you're the chip leader on the bubble? If there are no hands that this tight player will fold against an all-in but play against a raise of 4xBB, then the all-in can't be right.

[TylerD]

I'd make it 750 to go. If he's tight he's not going to call, but this way the times he does call (or raises) he won't get your stack.

[TheArtist]

BB end up calling with AK and I lose. What if you guys are the bb, what is the minumum hand you will need to call here knowing that sb(me) will push with alot of hands.

[raptor517]

[ QUOTE ]

BB end up calling with AK and I lose. What if you guys are the bb, what is the minumum hand you will need to call here knowing that sb(me) will push with alot of hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

it all depends on the exact push range really.. 10x is pushing it for loose calls like AQo and things like that. most people couldnt call faster, but i muck without thought a LOT of hands in spots like that getting pushed into. leak or not, doesnt hurt me enough. im not gonna call for a 60% there. aint my style. holla