Bubble Problem

[Paul Thomson]

UTG 2500
MP 1500
SB-HERO 7200 hand (TKo)
BB 3200

The blinds are 200 - 400

I raise it the minimum out of the SB with TKo hoping to take it down there. My opponent calls. the flop comes 9 5 2 rainbow. What's your play?

Stacks after the flop:

POT = 1600
Hero= 6800
Villian= 2800
UTG = 2500
MP = 1500

[durron597]

I push preflop instead of minraising

[psyduck]

[ QUOTE ]
I push preflop instead of minraising

[/ QUOTE ]

yes, HORRIBLE play minraising. on the flop, continuation bet half-pot, fold to a push, check/fold any later streets to any sizeable bet

[Paul Thomson]

do you think pushing preflop is too agressive. If he calls, I'll usually be crushed. Do you think i should have raised 2.5x the size of BB?

And I pushed on the flop. was that stupid?

Mini-raises are not good unless he has shown that he folds to them. IMO 2-3xbb and then fold if he pushes.

OK let me attempt an EV calculation (please feel free to correct me I'm new at this).

Pushing on the flop I think is +EV. pot = 1600 and you're risking his remaining stack (2000).

If he lays down (1/2, conservative, I think) you are: +1600
If he calls (1/2) and you win (1/3), you are: 1/6 x 4600 ~+767
If he calls (1/2) and you loose (2/3), you are: 1/3 x -2000 = -666

EV = 1700

[45suited]

One of the things that I hate most about mini-raising here is that it tells you next to nothing about villain's hand.

So it seems idiotic to push the flop after mini-raising, since for all intents and purposes, it is an unraised pot (you don't know what the hell he has at all).

So if you're going to push, just do it pre-flop. Why build a pot where you don't know where you stand and then have to play it OOP? Yuck.

[se2schul]

What buy-in is this? It's not a Party game, is it?

I wouldn't push preflop. You have a HUGE stack and there's no point in risking almost 33% of it to win a mere T600. You don't need those chips, so I really wouldn't risk almost half my stack there.

I really like your min raise. I play the low limits on party, and I find that when I end up with a HUGE stack like that, I can usually get away with min-raising every hand with any 2 cards 7 or 8 times before the fish at the $22 tables catch on to what I'm doing. As soon as they realise it, they start reraising and of course I stop min raising every hand.

On the flop, I'd make a continuation bet. I'd probably bet pot. It's a significant amount of the villain's stack, so calling it pretty much pot committs him, yet if he pushes you can get away from it.

Of course, this all depends of the reads you have on the opponents, and the type of table image you have portrayed to them up to this point.

se2

[11t]

I push preflop and I push this flop.

this is a very easy push. villain should take notice of the fact that 2 other players have very short stacks (<4BB) and he would be foolish to take any kind of gamble against you, even as a moderate favorite. so push.

[danger_mouse]

Why push pre-flop with 15BB, Durron? Is it because, you'll be pot committed if BB pushes? I usually don't push with such a large stack.

[psyduck]

[ QUOTE ]
Why push pre-flop with 15BB, Durron? Is it because, you'll be pot committed if BB pushes? I usually don't push with such a large stack.

[/ QUOTE ]

you don't have 15BB for this hand. for all purposes, you have the same stack as the BB, which is around 8BB each. so this is a push just based on card frequency assuming a tight to okay-tight calling range.

in addition, you cover villain, so he's more afraid of busting than you. this should tighten up his calling range even further.

[ilya]

Why do you want to make difficult decisions for yourself, just push preflop and take the insta-profit. If he only calls you when you're smashed -- great! quite a profitable push against a tight calling range. and with two smaller stacks, one with only 4xbb, he's probably gonna be tighter than usual.

[tigerite]

This is especially true if he's a thinking player. I raped two bubbles today because the next highest stack was a player like that, and was folding to my all-in raises and reraises when there was a smaller stack around. Because he knew he had to.

[lastchance]

Push preflop, take down the pot on the flop.

Actually, just push preflop. I'd probably push if my cards were somehow turned face up.

[Nottom]

This is about an easy a preflop push as it gets. I'm just shocked at people suggesting anything else.

[Nottom]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Why push pre-flop with 15BB, Durron? Is it because, you'll be pot committed if BB pushes? I usually don't push with such a large stack.

[/ QUOTE ]

you don't have 15BB for this hand. for all purposes, you have the same stack as the BB, which is around 8BB each. so this is a push just based on card frequency assuming a tight to okay-tight calling range.

[/ QUOTE ]

Just to reitterate how easy this push is it doesn't matter what his calling range is. It will always be a significantly EV push.

As lastchance pointed out even if he knew what your cards are this is still an easy push.

Versus a non-retarded BB you should basically be pushing all but your most terrible hands here (which are probably still =EV to push, but I'm willing to let off the gas so people don't get too call happy and ruin my fun)